Matt Kenseth will win the 2013 Chase for the Championship.
"Wait a minute!" you may be wondering.
Kenseth already won the opening Chase race at soggy Chicagoland last weekend, so picking Kenseth isn't necessarily the boldest prediction on the planet.
True, but you may recall it was hard to predict who would win the Chase last week because we really didn't know who would actually be in the Chase until late Friday afternoon when Jeff Gordon was added to the now-13-driver scrum.
A Baker's Dozen it is, and Kenseth will stay at the top this week as well as into the last week at Homestead come November.
Kenseth has the usual things going for him: A great driver who stays in the lead packs consistently, coupled with a competitive demeanor without the drama that follows other drivers around week to week.
Kenseth always has been an under-the-radar guy, and he loves it that way. He is the last man to have won the Winston Cup championship, back in 2003, when he had a series-best 25 top-10 finishes but with only one victory.
Ironically, Kenseth's victory total helped spawn the dynamics of the Chase the following year. The premium is now on victories. Kenseth has obliged big-time with a season-high six victories to go along with seven top 5s and two poles.
"The format - we all know what it is before the year starts," Kenseth said during a teleconference Tuesday after I asked him to reflect on his 2003 title. "It's the same for everybody. The rules don't change as you go along. Sure, we'd love to win it in the new format.
"As far as the last one we won, it was a really long time. Time goes by really quick. There's certainly no apologies for the way we won that championship. We had an unbelievable season that year. We didn't have the fastest cars or led the most laps, but we were consistently in the top 5 and had really, really good finishes and really good teamwork that whole entire year."
It's rinse-and-repeat this year for Kenseth, who left owner Jack Roush and jumped to the Joe Gibbs Racing family to start the 2013 season. Kenseth had driven for Roush Fenway since entering Cup full time in 2000.
It's been a smooth transition, obviously, devoid of all the controversy that has enveloped teammates Denny Hamlin and, to a lesser extent, Kyle Busch this season.
"My approach to racing has always been the same ... when they drop the green on Sunday, it's 1 against 42," Kenseth said. "You always try to help your teammate. You never try to put a teammate in a bad spot - try not to get in conflicts with them - and do things like that."
"... When it comes to the race on Sunday, you're going to race as hard as you can to beat your teammates as well as the rest of the field."
Advantage, Kenseth.
NASCAR Sprint Cup
Chase for the Championship: Sylvania 300
At Loudon, N.H.
1 p.m. Sunday
TV: ESPN-25
MCT
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