News - Blogs - Despite early start hurricane season expected to be nearnormal

Despite early start, hurricane season expected to be "near-normal"
Published: 5/25/2012 4:20 PM
Last Modified: 5/25/2012 4:40 PM

This NOAA satellite image taken Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. shows cloud cover over Atlantic where the remains of Tropical Storm Alberto continue to dissipate. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND)

This is an image with three shots of Hurricane Andrew as it crossed into the Gulf of Mexico 20 years ago this August. It was a big, nasty storm, to say the least.

You know what’s less than a week away? June. That really snuck up on me, team.

With June comes the start of the summer dry season here and hurricane season in the Atlantic. Both started early.

Tropical Storm Alberto spun up and fizzled out off the coast of South Carolina earlier this week. It didn’t become a major storm, but was still organized and strong enough to earn the first name of 2012.

And the NWS’ National Hurricane Center is watching an area off the coast of the Carolinas and Florida for more organized storm development. Right now, the center said the area has an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in the next 48 hours. If it does become organized enough, Beryl (really...?) would be its name.

All that would be before what forecasters consider the start of the season.

By the way, there have already been two named storms in the Pacific, off the Mexican coast. Hurricane Bud (he’s not your friend) is peaked as a Category 2 hurricane, but has and will continue to diminish. The Pacific hurricane season starts in mid-May.

So, “Hurricane Season” is kind of arbitrary. I mean, there isn’t someone that I know of with a bag full of hurricanes who waits for a starter pistol on June 1 to dump them all out. But, having two named storms in May is somewhat rare.

There is an average of 0.1 tropical storms in May. Put another way, between 1851 and 2010, there have been 21 tropical storms in May. In the same time period, there have been four hurricanes and only one major hurricane in the month of May. By June, that tropical storm total jumps to 83. But for some more perspective, the total number of tropical storms in September in that timeframe is 492.

Obviously, it’s very early in the season. But do the early storms mean an above-active Atlantic season will follow? Forecasters say no.

The NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division predicted a “near-normal” hurricane season this year in its forecast released Thursday. “Near-normal” means there is a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms. Four to eight of those storms will become hurricanes and one to three of them will be major hurricanes, with winds in excess of 111 mph.

On average, there are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The reason for their forecast is three fold: Strong wind shear in the main development region, cooler sea temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic and the development of El Nino conditions that are expected to start later this year.

Before we start thinking that the forecast means there is nothing to worry about, flash back to 1992. Specifically, August 1992 and Hurricane Andrew. This year will mark the 20th anniversary of the Category 5 storm that devastated Florida, the third costliest storm behind Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Ike in 2008.

That year was one of the least active in a nine-year span and even had a subtropical depression form in April.

Let’s hope that whatever hurricanes do form later this year that they 1) don’t hurt anyone or cause any major damage and 2) bring us some rain. After this month, we could use a drink of water.

--Jerry Wofford

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

Weather World

Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

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Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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