News - Blogs - Does warm March mean blazing summer Not necessarily

Does warm March mean blazing summer? Not necessarily
Published: 4/2/2012 2:15 PM
Last Modified: 4/2/2012 2:43 PM

University of Tulsa student Emily Beers studies while her boyfriend Joe Reeder sits in the sun at Chapman Commons on campus Sunday. Tulsa World/Mike Simons

Two weather blogs in one day?! Lucky you.

Lots of folks have been asking me or loudly complaining about this early heat, how it must absolutely signify that a summer where the temperature doesn't drop below 90 is inevitable and already upon us.

The pros over at the National Weather Service's Tulsa office must have been hearing the same thing, because here is a bunch of data they put together that shows that notion to not be a given.

For example, the record we just beat for warmest March. It was set in 1910, with an average temperature of 61.3 degrees (last month's average was 61.5). April of that year was the 45th coldest on record. May was 12th coldest and the whole summer was 31st coldest.

Now, with 100 years of data to draw from, 45th coldest is pretty close to average. But 12th coldest? That's notable.

The fourth warmest March was 1907, but it was followed by the coldest April and May on record and the 35th coldest summer.

The third warmest March was in 2007, and it was followed by the 13th warmest April, the 32nd warmest May and the 50th warmest summer (about as close to average as one can get).

Last year, when the bowels of Hell opened on Oklahoma, bringing with it a new definition of heat, the average temperature for March was 52.5, nearly 10 degrees cooler than last month, or about average. Then, come summer, everyone instantly melted into a sad puddle of exhaustion as soon as they even got near a door or window.

So, it's not time to panic just yet, everybody. Calm down.

Want some more info to cool your troubled heart? La Nina, which was a factor in the wild weather we had last year, is starting to wind down, according to the latest forecasts.

The Climate Prediction Center's latest long-term forecast, issued Sunday, calls for an above average chance for above average temperatures this month. But their three-month forecast, issued last month, is predicting equal changes for an average temperature, but eastern Oklahoma is on the edge of that forecast area.

Maybe it will be an awesome, temperate summer that is enjoyable without being sweltering. And maybe it will be the surface of the sun, transplanted here to our humble planet. Let's hope for option A.

--Jerry Wofford

Also, be a doll, won't you? Follow me on Twitter and on Facebook. The former is updated more often, especially in nasty weather.

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

Weather World

Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

>> Visit the main weather page
>> Send us your weather photos
>> Meet the forecasters

Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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