Jan. 1 drought map
Looking at the latest drought map from the U.S. Drought Monitor, you couldn’t tell that we recently had the wettest day in Tulsa since Nov. 11. That's 0.69 inches of rain on Dec. 31. Quite an exciting day!
That, and all the snow that released moisture into the ground across the southeast did nothing at all to change the latest conditions. But, at least it’s not worse?
And I guess that is something. The little bet of moisture has helped to keep a little lid on the drought for now, but a significant amount of rain is needed to really move us in the right direction.
The most
recent map shows that 37.06 percent of the state in D4, the most severe drought category. It includes much of the Panhandle and areas east and south from there to Tulsa and Washington counties and down to the Red River. Last week, 37.05 percent of the state was in D4. The percentage of the state in D3 is at 94.89, which is unchanged from last week.
While there was a bit of rain in the last week, it will take a lot more than a bit to break this cycle.
That being said, there is the possibility for more than a bit or rain next week. The current estimate from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center said most of the state could see more than a
half inch of rain over the next seven days. Now, that could (and most likely will) change as we get to the middle of next week.
So, rain is good news. More good news is that it is expected as of right now to be all rain, none of that other icy stuff. That’s good, since an inch of rain roughly translates to about 10 inches of snow, and Tulsa is near the inch range.
But like I said earlier, it is going to take a lot more than a few rain events to change things in a meaningful way. To get eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas back to near-normal levels on the Palmer Drought Severity Index, we would need between
9 and 15 inches. Of rain. Or, roughly 90 to 150 inches of snow. Bahaha. Just imagine that for a moment with me.
This is typically the dry season for Oklahoma, with a monthly average of about 1.66 inches in January. So, drought-busters anytime soon would be outside the norm. Let’s see if we can hold on to spring, and then hope it doesn’t disappoint.
--Jerry Wofford
