News - Blogs - Drought worsens but a turnaround may be near

Drought worsens, but a turnaround may be near
Published: 8/23/2012 2:18 PM
Last Modified: 8/23/2012 2:18 PM

Several hundred feet of sandbar can be seen north of the Mississippi River bridge in Greenville, Miss., Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012. Coast Guard Capt. William Drelling said Wednesday that authorities would inspect the channel near Greenville, then reset navigation buoys allowing barge traffic to resume on a limited basis as both federal agencies deal with the continued drought that has lowered the Mississippi River. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

A spray of sand laced water shoots out from the Dredge Jadwin, a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers vessel that is clearing out some of the silt and left over mud and debris from last year's record flood on the Mississippi River and cutting a deeper channel for barges and their towboats to navigate north of Greenville, Miss., Wednesday. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Hundreds of barges are stuck north and south of Greenville, Miss. due to low water on the Mississippi River, Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2012. Low water levels that are restricting shipping traffic, forcing harbor closures and causing barges to run aground on the economically vital Mississippi River are expected to continue into October, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers officials said Tuesday. (AP Photo/The Commercial Appeal, Alan Spearman)

What do they say about it getting worse before it gets better? Someone said that. Well, they were right.

The latest drought conditions were released this morning and it’s worse. But, with quite a bit of rain forecast to fall across the state this weekend, it could get better very soon.

Well, at least start getting better. We have a long way to go.

The U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies 48.1 percent of Oklahoma as D4-Exceptional drought, its highest classification. This is the highest it’s been since October of 2011. It’s the first time that the whole of Tulsa County has been included in the most severe drought classification in at least a decade.

Nationally, conditions also worsened, but marginally. The percent of the Lower 48 in some kind of drought state is up about 1.5 percent from last week to 63 percent. One year ago, while the percentage of the state in D4 was higher than now, only 31 percent of the contiguous United States was experiencing drought.

With such a large ship becoming heavier and heavier, it will take a lot of time to turn it around. (Speaking of turning ships around, low water on the Mississippi River halted barge traffic. Those are the photos you see on the right.)

But, there are some things to look forward to.

Typically, rain picks up in the fall, especially compared to the summer months. It’s just part of the typical natural cycle. It rained last weekend, which helped to improve drought conditions across southeast Oklahoma. And it’s forecast to rain this weekend, with models indicating the heaviest precipitation in northern Oklahoma and totals in excess of 2 inches.

Looking at the broad picture again, parts of the Southwest have already seen some drought relief. Too much, actually. A 17-year-old was swept away in a flooded drainage ditch near Las Vegas. Not realizing the danger, obviously, a bunch of clowns floated a normally-dry wash near Las Vegas.

It’s a desert, but it’s even been abnormally dry there this year.

Long term, global shifts in weather patterns could also help to turn things around, too. It’s looking more and more like El Nino conditions will take hold in the Pacific Ocean this month or next. El Nino typically means wetter and cooler conditions for the southern United States, and Oklahoma is right on the cusp of those areas typically affected.

But, you know what would really help? A tropical storm. One that doesn't cause much damage along the coast but is strong enough to bring heavy rain up here. It won't be Isaac, but the season is still young.

--Jerry Wofford

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

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Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

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Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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