News - Blogs - Early noreaster sign of things to come

Early nor'easter sign of things to come?
Published: 10/31/2011 12:18 PM
Last Modified: 10/31/2011 1:28 PM

A car attempts to drive along Mountain Road in Cornwall, N.Y., Sunday, October 30. 2011. Millions of people from Maine to Maryland are without power after an unseasonably early nor'easter dumped heavy, wet snow over the weekend on a region more used to gaping at leaves in October than shoveling snow. (AP Photo/Lee Ferris).

Snow Ridge Road in Cornwall, N.Y., on October 30, 2011. (AP Photo/Lee Ferris)

If, for some strange reason, you happened to be zombie Bing Crosby and you were dreaming about a white Halloween, you just got your wish.

A big, classic nor’easter just stormed up (haha) the east coast, dumping a massive amount of snow from Maryland to Maine.

A nor’easter is a large low pressure system that marches across the country, gaining strength from Gulf moisture before charging up the Atlantic coast states with the jet stream. While they can happen year round, they are known for their impact in winter. The storm brings frigid Arctic air and lots of snow.

For example: Peru, Mass., had 32 inches of snow. Nearly 31 inches fell in Plainfield, Mass. Fall Foliage in Central Park in New York had 2.9 inches covering it this weekend. Needless to say, the snow shattered record books all across the northeast.

You might be saying to yourself, “My my, that seems early.” And you are right! It was very early for a winter nor’easter. They are most typical in January-ish to February.

But us down here in Oklahoma, it’s absolutely delightful out there. Perfect fall weather. And the perfect fall weather will be here most of the week. Rain likely mid-week, and then a cool down, but amazing.

So, what about the rest of our winter? More than 2 feet of snow is already on the ground in some parts of the country. Are we on track for a repeat of this year's record-breaking snowfall?

Well, never say never, but it’s not very likely.

The Climate Prediction Center at NOAA released its winter outlook last week. The short version: warm and dry. Raise your hand if you’re tired of that phrase.

What do we have to thank for warm and dry weather prevailing yet again this winter? That Ice Queen in the Pacific: La Niña. Because of the cooling in the Pacific off the coast of South America, the weather around the world is just a mess.

For the southern and central United States, we have a 40 percent or higher chance of having above-normal temperatures for the next three months. The same area has about the same chance of having a drier than normal three month period.

Temps:

And precipitation:

I really recommend exploring that winter outlook page. There is a lot of good info there about what goes into their decision process and forecast, including charts and graphs (!) about La Niña’s effect on winters.

So, while warm and dry may be the likely trend, that’s what they said last year, when there was also La Niña conditions. Then we had February, and 2 feet of snow. THEN we had 70-degree weather a week later. Basically, no one knows anything for sure. Just best guesses.

--Jerry Wofford

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

Weather World

Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

>> Visit the main weather page
>> Send us your weather photos
>> Meet the forecasters

Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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