News - Blogs - Hope your canoe is ready. Here comes the rain

Hope your canoe is ready. Here comes the rain
Published: 3/19/2012 12:27 PM
Last Modified: 3/19/2012 1:40 PM

Here are the 24-hour rainfall totals valid as of 12:15 p.m. from the Oklahoma Mesonet. Expect this map to get a lot greener, well, everywhere.

Like I do, I was listening to the National Weather Service’s audio weather briefing Sunday morning about the forecasted flood event with my coffee and the Tulsa World when the forecaster said something that caught my attention.

He said Sunday that some isolated places along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border could see 10 and even 13 inches of rain over the next few days as this system stalls out.

I literally LOL-ed. Nearly ruined my copy of the Tulsa World when I spit out my coffee.

Ten inches of rain is crazy enough. My feeble little mind can’t even begin to fathom what 13 inches of rain would look like, especially when that all works its way into our rivers and streams.

And now they're saying 15 inches is possible in some locations. That is, no lie, about half of what fell at Tulsa International in all of 2011.

Models have been predicting a significant weather event for the next two days, and as the event has approached, it has become more apparent that an ark might be necessary.

While the biggest threat here in northeast Oklahoma will probably be flooding, a severe storm is not out of the question. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk of severe storms forecast for central Texas to the southeast corner of Oklahoma and a slight risk from Mexico to Minnesota.

With all this rain up here, it could be hard to predict what, where and how severe, but further south in Oklahoma and Texas, the severe threat is more significant. That severe threat includes high probabilities of hail over much of central Texas, strong winds in storms in central Texas into the southeast corner of Oklahoma and tornadoes from central Texas up to a line from Tulsa to Fayetteville on the most extreme northern side of the forecast. That includes much of eastern Oklahoma and extreme western Arkansas.

Definitely keep an eye on whatever storms do form, because things could get serious quickly this afternoon.

But, back to the rain. Here is what’s causing this: There is a large trough in the jet stream that is dipping into New Mexico right now that will soon get cut off, creating a low pressure system that will stall and spin with nothing to really give it a good push. It will spin and spin and spin and rain and rain and rain before it lifts northeastward by the end of the week.

So, now is a good time to review flood safety. The easiest thing to remember when on the road is “Turn around; don’t drown.” It may look like a little bubbling stream of water meandering its way across the road, but does not take much water to sweep your vehicle away, and it’s incredibly difficult to estimate the depth of the water in front of you.

In 2011, 63 percent of flood deaths were in vehicles. While it may take a little longer to go around, it is always better to be safe that sorry.

A flash flood watch is currently in effect for all of eastern and central Oklahoma and all of western Arkansas. The watch will last until Wednesday, but warnings are possible.

For a lighter side, while the drought conditions have diminished in southeast Oklahoma, parts of the state that really need the rain will get it. Unfortunately, it could be too much in some places, but can beggars really be choosers? Well, probably when it comes to deadly floods.

And, of course, the Panhandle is the only part of the state in the most extreme drought category and it won't get nearly the amount of rainfall the eastern side of the state will see. Poor Panhandle.

And even more of the lighter side, friend and coworker Jarrel Wade sent over these possible names for this flood event, a play off of last year’s Snowmageddon. Tell me which ones are your favorite:

--Jerry Wofford

Be sure to stay tuned to the Tulsa World for any updates to the flooding and severe weather, and follow me on Twitter and Facebook for further updates.

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

Weather World

Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

>> Visit the main weather page
>> Send us your weather photos
>> Meet the forecasters

Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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