This NOAA satellite image taken at 9:45 a.m. CDT Tuesday, shows superstorm Sandy slowly moving westward while weakening across southern Pennsylvania. The National Weather Service said a foot and more of snow was reported in lower elevations of West Virginia, where most towns and roads are. High elevations in the mountains were getting more than two feet and a blizzard warning for more than a dozen counties was in effect until Wednesday afternoon. (AP Photo/NOAA)
Let me point you to
one week ago on this very blog. In it, I said there was this plucky little tropical storm south of Jamaica in the Caribbean named Sandy.
Some meteorologists said that it had the real possibility to cross the Caribbean and charge north up the East Coast before it hooked a left, made landfall and caused billions of dollars in damage. Others said it was going to drift out to sea and mostly make life a little rough for some tuna.
Well, by now I think we all know
who was right.
Projections are now saying that the total property damage from Sandy and the monster storm she became will exceed $20 billion. If that holds up, it would be the costliest storm since
Hurricane Ike in 2008 and could surpass it. (As reference, Katrina caused an estimated $125 billion in damage) As of right now, AP is reporting 38 people have been killed in the United States, adding to the 69 reported dead in the Caribbean.
So, what made Sandy so large and what kept it from drifting out to sea?
By now, I’m sure you’ve read that it was caused when two weather systems -- Sandy and a trough of low pressure moving across the country -- collided and merged into the massive storm that is still bringing rain and winds to the northeast. And maybe you said, “OK, sure. They merged. Cool story, bro. What does that mean?”
Well, watch
this. It was created by Ryan Maue of WeatherBELL Analytics, via
Slate,
Climate Central.
You can clearly see Sandy over the ocean and and the low pressure trough being drawn south and east. And you can see the two swirling around each other, bringing Sandy ashore before combining and moving northeast. That’s known as the
Fujiwhara Effect.
But before that actually happened and was a week away, forecasters simply didn't know how all the forces would interact. The European model called it, but most others showed just the opposite. Here is the forecast map from the GFS model at 5 p.m. Oct. 23. Some had it affecting the northeast, but the majority opinion was it would keep making that right turn and leave us alone. It's the same model, just different runs of it with different conditions.
But, that was not the case. It did hook that left and turned into an incredible and remarkable event, and one the northeast will feel for some time. Here is the National Hurricane Center's
wind history archive. Notice how massive it was at the end, with tropical storm-force winds from South Carolina to Maine.
Meteorologists and climatologists will be diving into this data for years. The name Sandy will be one that lives for decades, like Andrew and Katrina.
I'll leave you with
this. It's always an incredible way to see how the air is moving in this country and even better when significant events are occurring, like Sandy.
--Jerry Wofford, on Twitter
@jerrywofford
