The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration released its assessment this week of the
Joplin tornado, one of the largest and most deadly single tornadoes in U.S. history.
The report is a very interesting (which can be found
here), and has several points that us here in Oklahoma can certainly relate to and warnings we should heed.
The first is just that: heed warnings. Warnings for the tornado were issued, but either through complacency or the “crying wolf” idea. From the report: “Responding to warnings is not a simple act of stimulus-response, rather it is a non-linear, multi-step, complex process. Relationships between false alarms, public complacency, and warning credibility are highly complex as well.”
From my own personal experience living in tornado alley, I can say that I have probably not taken tornado warnings as seriously as I should have. When a warning for my area is issued, I look at the sky and/or a radar image to see what’s coming. That’s silly: professionals whose sole job is to warn and protect us from impending doom just told me what is coming.
My actions seem to be similar to those many Joplin residents took. Again, from the report (which is based on hundreds of interviews with Joplin residents):
“The vast majority of Joplin residents did not immediately take protective action upon receiving a first indication of risk (usually via the local siren system), regardless of the source of the warning. Most chose to further assess their risk by waiting for, actively seeking, and filtering additional information.
"The reasons for doing so were quite varied, but largely depended on an individual‘s worldview formed mostly by previous experience with severe weather. Most importantly, the perceived frequency of siren activation in Joplin led the majority of survey participants to become desensitized or complacent to this method of warning. This suggests that initial siren activations in Joplin (and severe weather warnings in general) have lost a degree of credibility for most residents – one of the most valued characteristics for successful risk communication.”
The first sirens went off in Joplin at 5:11 p.m. The first touchdown on the outskirts of Joplin was at 5:34 and the tornado didn’t reach the city for another four minutes.
Some more interesting data from the report: Since 2007 nationally, 76 percent of all tornado warnings were false alarms. However, despite that high number, people in the path of tornadoes with an EF-3 rating had about 18 minutes warning time 94 percent of the time.
It seems that may have been part of the problem. People in Joplin had plenty of warning time, but when 76 percent of tornado warnings are false alarms, that can have an affect on a persons’ psyche when it comes to their personal response.
It’s important to mention what the text of warnings includes: The situation is occurring or is imminent. While a tornado warning may be in affect for your area, a tornado may not be on the ground, but those clouds sure are spinning.
For more weather-related lessons learned, the report states that the lower level storm rotation--and thereby the tornado itself--formed “very rapidly” as the storm approached. A more frequent radar scan of the storm’s lower elevations would have provided forecasters with more data about just how monumentally dangerous this storm was.
That was apparent, as is seen in the following radar image from the storm at 5:48, but by this time, the storm was over Joplin and the event was occurring.
Reading this report, it’s important to remember that hindsight is definitely 20/20, as they say. But, we can all take things away from this report. For example, don’t be complacent, pay attention to warnings and be safe.
It's also important to remember that the warning time most Joplin residents received was ample, and that surely saved many lives, the report states. The community's response in the aftermath also had a profound effect and prevented more deaths.
--Jerry Wofford
