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Oscar for Best Picture: 'Lincoln' or 'Argo?'
Published: 1/28/2013 12:03 PM
Last Modified: 1/28/2013 1:21 PM

"Argo"

"Lincoln"

Three weeks ago, when the Academy Awards nominations were announced, I made my case: "Lincoln" would win the Oscar as best picture.

It was a well-reasoned decision based on many factors. Key among them was the snub of "Argo's" Ben Affleck in the best director category. Only three times in 84 years has the best picture Oscar gone to a movie with no director nomination.

Three weeks later and a couple of key award wins, the momentum in the best-picture race may have shifted to "Argo," Affleck's exceptionally entertaining political drama based on a true story about rescuing Americans during the Iran hostage crisis.

When Affleck was snubbed, people in Hollywood were baffled. Every other group handing out awards seemed to think that Affleck was a deserving nominee, if not a winner, except for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

It may be that people in Hollywood were also ticked off, and Hollywood loves a good revenge story.

The snub may be what has energized the awards race for "Argo," which over the weekend won two key awards that have historically served as precursors for the Oscars.

On Saturday, "Argo" bested the competition in the Producers Guild Awards, which uses a system similar to that of the Oscar to pick a winner. On Sunday, "Argo" won the best cast award at the Screen Actors Guild, which is that organization's equivalent of a best-picture win.

"Lincoln" finished as an also-ran in both award contests, but there's still reason to believe that Steven Spielberg's picture will win the top Oscar on Feb. 24. I can't rule out the embarrassment factor.

Without question, the Academy has egg on its face for Affleck having not been nominated in the director race. That will only heighten if "Argo" wins best picture without that nomination, which hasn't happened since 1989, when "Driving Miss Daisy" won best picture without Bruce Beresford being nominated as best director.

Watch for the results of this Saturday's Directors Guild Award, when Spielberg and Affleck are both nominated. An Affleck win would make "Argo" a solid front-runner; a Spielberg win would muddle the picture.

If my prediction of a "Lincoln" win for best picture at the Oscars ends up incorrect and "Argo" takes home the top prize, I would be thrilled to be wrong.

In my Dec. 28 top-10 list published in the Tulsa World, I named "Argo" the No. 1 movie of 2012. "Lincoln" finished in my "second 10" list at No. 12.

Reader Comments

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19803 (2 weeks ago)

The Oscars are dominated by their progressively older membership. Every year they seem just a bit more out of step with the rest of the country.

Jayhawk Ken (2 weeks ago)

You'll get no argument from me, Michael. "Argo" was, indeed, the most entertaining Best Picture nominee and Affleck's snub was among the most grievous mistakes in recent Academy history. "Lincoln" was a fine, fine film with outstanding actors, but it was hardly what anyone could call "entertaining." My favorite film of 2011-12 was Scorcese's masterpiece, "Hugo," by the way.

BIG CAT (2 weeks ago)

I'm going with Lincoln.

pika (2 weeks ago)

Argo- eff yourself, Hollywood.

Mar (last week)

I really like Ben Affeck, but I would vote for Lincoln as I really like Daniel Day-Lewis.

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I See Movies for Free

“I was born a poor, black child” … not me, actually, but Steve Martin’s character in the “The Jerk.” That absurd opening line is just one of the absurd number of film facts, quotes and minutiae contained in movie critic Michael Smith’s brain, at his disposal to toss out on a moment’s notice. It’s a key requirement as Tulsa World film critic to know these things. Michael learned a few other life facts along the way (seven years as a Crystal’s Pizza & Spaghetti manager) before attempting journalism and joining the Tulsa World in 1996, where he’s covered everything from a school shooting in Fort Gibson to a tornado in Stroud to witnessing an execution. A little community theater coverage was sprinkled in there, too. Movies engender many of his happiest memories, from standing in line for “Star Wars” and “Grease” at the Southroads Cinema to the James Bond and Pink Panther movies that always premiered at the enormous Continental Theater.

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Past Articles By Michael Smith

2/16/2013		Broken Arrow movie theater moves to discount showings
2/15/2013		Review: 'Amour'
2/15/2013		Review: 'A Good Day to Die Hard'
2/15/2013		Review: 'Beautiful Creatures'
2/14/2013		Review: 'Quartet'
2/14/2013		Shirley MacLaine to speak at Osage Casino
2/14/2013		Weekly rewind: February 14
2/14/2013		REVIEW: 'Beautiful Creatures'
2/12/2013		Belgian best picture hopeful 'Amour' opens in Tulsa on Friday
2/10/2013		'Die Hard' marathon at AMC Southroads on Wednesday ends with new film
2/9/2013		Review: 'Identity Thief' a stupid movie from stupid idea
2/8/2013		Oscar audit: Critics choices for best picture hold up over time

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