News - Blogs - Snowmageddon or nothing You decide The first Weather World snowfall contest

Snowmageddon or nothing? You decide: The first Weather World snowfall contest
Published: 11/28/2012 12:10 PM
Last Modified: 11/30/2012 10:48 AM

Tim Houchin of Broken Arrow walks up 4th in the snow to work at Brune Law Firm downtown Tuesday February 1, 2011. Blizzard conditions struck the Tulsa area stranding motorists and shutting down much of the city. CHRISTOPHER SMITH/ Tulsa World

After the winter of 2010-2011, I expected/hoped last winter would be an actual winter.

Instead, we went from the snowiest winter on record in Tulsa to one of Tulsa’s least snowiest.

It begs the question: How much snow will Tulsa have this winter?

So we're asking you. Tell me and whoever is closest will win a prize!

It's the first ever Tulsa World Weather World blog contest! Here is how it works:

You tell me how much snow will be recorded at the National Weather Service office in Tulsa between now and March 31 to the nearest tenth of an inch. Whoever is closest will win! What, you ask? A prize!

The person who guesses closest will win a weather radio, which is appropriate since it will be awarded at the end of winter, also known as the beginning of severe weather season. The radio will alert you when severe weather is on the way to you. It's a great way to keep you and your family safe in the storm.

What you need to do is email me at jerry.wofford@tulsaworld.com with your guess to the nearest 0.1 inch, your name and a way to contact you other than email. (Edit: We need a tiebreaker just in case, so guess the first day measurable snowfall will occur in Tulsa) Also send us your real name if it's OK for us to print, or tell us if that's not OK. The winner will be announced in April and will not only win a weather radio, but bragging rights for a whole year on this weather blog.

So, how are you supposed to know how much snow we will get? I’m no wizard (and if you are, NO CHEATING), but I can give you some history of snow in Tulsa and what some of the forecasts are for this winter to guide your guess.

This page from the National Weather Service gives you more than enough historical data from Tulsa. Here are some high points:

The average going back more than 100 years is 9.6 inches.

The snowiest winter was the winter of 2010-2011, when 26.1 inches piled up.

The snowiest year was in 1958, with 29.6 inches.

The most snow to fall on Christmas was 1.3 inches in 1975. The last white Christmas (at least 1 inch of snow on the ground) was 2009.

Several weather patterns also can have a significant effect on our winters. Among those are the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and El Nino/La Nina. Those phenomena can have drastic effects on weather patterns around the globe. (Learn more about them here)

The historical data shows that La Nina years are typically drier and warmer in this region. Last two winters had La Nina conditions. A negative North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation phases open the faucet for cold weather in this region by causing shifts in the jet stream. Here is historical data for La Nina/El Nino, NAO and AO. See how they correlate with our previous snow events.

The oscillations are hard to predict more than a couple weeks in advance, but climatologists are predicting neutral La Nina/El Nino conditions.

The Climate Prediction Center’s long-term forecasts can give some guidance, but they aren’t the definitive answer. The three-month outlook has Tulsa in the area with chances of above-normal temperatures this winter. Tulsa is also on the edge of an increased chance of above-average precipitation.

All that being said, weather is weather and it is nearly impossible to predict over the long term. So, guess! Tell me what you think. And tell your friends to tell me what to think.

Remember you can always check what the experts are saying here, thanks to the wonderful partnership we have with the National Weather Service office here in Tulsa.

I will shut down guesses on Dec. 7, unless we get snow between now and then (not likely). So, break out the slide rule and give me your best educated guess. For what it’s worth, I’m going with 7.6 inches. Bam.

--Jerry Wofford

Reader Comments

5 Total

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Razor1911 (3 months ago)

Pssssst... The official Tulsa snowfall measurement is done at the NWS office and not the Airport.

Tulsa World Staff Writer Jerry Wofford (3 months ago)

Yikes... Thanks, Razor. Fixed.

Razor1911 (3 months ago)

No problem! It was at the airport until the winter of 2010-2011 so it wasn't that long ago that the official measurement WAS at the airport. Since the record 24-hour snowfall happened in February 2011, the record snowfall was measured at the NWS office. I think there's a pic on the NWS website of the observer taking the record breaking measurement. :-)

Chakrabongse (3 months ago)

I don't think there will be any snow... so it's probably pointless for me to mail in a guess.

(besides, I don't have any use for a weather radio. I'm an old curmudgeon and the weather will do to me what it will.)

Chakrabongse (3 months ago)

Oh.. so as not to be rude... thanks for the opportunity anyway. :)

5 comments displayed

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

Weather World

Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

>> Visit the main weather page
>> Send us your weather photos
>> Meet the forecasters

Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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