This image from the GOES-13 satellite was taken today at 6:02 a.m. CDT, the moment of equinox when the equator lined up with the sun. (The sun was artificially inserted.) Image from the NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory
It’s hard to tell if you go outside right now, but it is officially spring today.
And by this weekend, you’ll probably think we’ve time-warped back a few months.
The Earth reached the point in its orbit where the axis leans neither toward nor away from the sun at 6:02 a.m. It is now both meteorological and astronomical spring. So that means we’re done with winter and everyone can break out their picnic baskets and Frisbee golf sets now, right?
LOL, you’re in Oklahoma. You know better than that.
You’ve probably already dusted off the bike and bought your flip flops if you were around last week. Friday saw us the warmest temperatures since November, with sunshine and 80s. Why yes, I did locate a patio to sit on with bare feet (I’m from Arkansas, I can’t help it). It was still technically winter, but sure didn’t feel like it.
Then things took a turn. And it’s still turning. We got down to 29 degrees this morning. We may break 50 degrees this afternoon, but we’ll be doing good to do so through the weekend into next week.
Why is it still turning? Look north, to our favorite determining factors for cold, volatile winter weather:
The Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations.
When the Arctic Oscillation is in the positive phase, a ring of winds around the northern latitudes is strong, trapping cold air up north, for the most part. When it’s in the negative phase, the winds are weaker and can cause more dips in the jet stream, a major factor for our weather patterns.
And would you
look at that: The Arctic Oscillation is in the
second strongest negative phase since records began more than 60 years ago. That’s giving us the
current dip we see in the jet stream, dropping that cold air from the northern latitudes to the mid-levels.
What does this mean for your weekend? Rain. Possibly some snow. Reminder: It really is spring right now.
Models and current forecasts have reduced our snow chances in Tulsa, but there is currently a
Winter Storm Watch across the Missouri-Arkansas border. Two to 4 inches are possible in the area.
Hey, calm down. Snow this late in the season isn’t unheard of here. In fact, 11.5 inches of snow fell in Tulsa in 1924, bringing that monthly total to 19.7 inches. In 2010, some parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas had more than 10 inches of snow.
For this week in Tulsa, forecasters are saying it will most likely be just rain, albeit a
very cold rain. However, while a near boiling rain would be quite unpleasant, I’d still take that over
no rain at all.
Welcome to springtime in Oklahoma. That groundhog is
a liar.
