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Why I don't believe in climate change/global warming
Published: 7/10/2012 7:00 AM
Last Modified: 7/11/2012 8:08 AM

Former U.S. Vice President and 2007 Nobel Peace Prize recipient Al Gore was the subject of 2006 documentary "An Inconvenient Truth," which focused on his efforts to educate the public on global warming. Business Wire Photo

U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma was first elected to the Senate in 1994. He was quoted in 2003 as saying "I have offered compelling evidence that catastrophic global warming is a hoax. That conclusion is supported by the painstaking work of the nation's top climate scientists." MICHAEL WYKE/Tulsa World File

In sports, fans and analysts alike have the bothersome habit of labeling recent teams and athletes as the "best ever" or conversely, the "worst ever."

Such is the case in weather, when casual observers complain about it being the hottest temperatures ever or having the least rainfall ever.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief Jane Lubchenco was recently quoted by the Associated Press as saying that more Americans, following extreme climate-related events such as wildfires and record hot temperatures, think that climate change (a.k.a. global warming) is real.

I am not among them, at least not yet.

I am not a scientist, nor do I have any formal education in meteorology, so my opinion is based on what professional meteorologists have been telling me countless times on the subject, as well as weather statistics provided by government agencies, including the National Weather Service and the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.

What the meteorologists say

Way back on April 30, 2008, I interviewed Tulsa National Weather Service meteorologist Nicole McGavock on the subject following a record rainy month:

Don’t go blaming global warming, McGavock said, but rather blame El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña. La Niña happens when the weather is cooler near the equator along the Pacific Ocean, which causes atypical weather.

“This can shift rainfall patterns,” she said. “Tulsa not always sees the effects, but we’ve seen them this year.”

In an article published Dec. 18, 2011, associate state climatologist Gary McManus addressed the subject after our drought-filled summer of 2011:

"Did this hot summer happen due to global warming? Probably not," McManus said. "I think when we study this summer, we will find that we would have had the warmest summer regardless of global warming."

And once again, I asked him about it for a story published Jan. 18 of this year. Here is what he said:

"It's really impossible to determine whether this is warming of the climate or natural variability or part of the natural pattern we see," he said.

Meteorologists have not ruled climate change out, which is why I hung a "yet" on the end of my opinion statement. However, I trust the experts on this - these recent weather events are not necessarily a sign of climate change/global warming, even if they seem extreme. They do not, without a doubt, prove that climate change exists. They do not disprove it, either, but it is not solid proof.

I asked McManus about climate change most recently during an interview a few weeks ago. The quote is unpublished, so here is what he said:

"You really want to look at the long term trends."

This is key, which leads me directly into...

Look at trends, not one-time weather records

If we were to use our recent hot temperature records as a reason to prove climate change, I could also use a recent weather record to disprove it: The coldest temperature in Oklahoma history was set last year, minus-31 degrees Fahrenheit in Nowata.

But remembering what McManus said, we can't simply look at one-time events for climate change, but we need to look at long-term trends.

For example, if we were to look at year-to-year annual average temperatures (in degrees Fahrenheit) for Tulsa since 2001:

2001: 62.0
2002: 60.8
2003: 60.8
2004: 61.0
2005: 62.5
2006: 63.3
2007: 61.9
2008: 60.6
2009: 60.1
2010: 61.3
2011: 62.4

Essentially, we are looking at a normal weather pattern: Rising and falling temperatures. Not just rising, not just falling. If we were experiencing global warming, we might see an upward trend, perhaps with a few outlier years. Instead, we're seeing a zig-zag effect between warmer and cooler years, not a consistent heating (or cooling) annually.

Curious about rainfall? Here's since 2001 once again, in inches:

2001: 29.14
2002: 31.31
2003: 41.30
2004: 49.52
2005: 28.22
2006: 38.23
2007: 53.09
2008: 56.09
2009: 46.12
2010: 34.47
2011: 30.99

Once again, we are looking at very up-and-down numbers. There is no doubt that last year was a dry year, but as you can see, we've had dry years before and in fact, had one just 10 years ago.

Let's factor some temperatures into that precipitation! Here's annual snowfall totals, in inches:

2001: 4.4
2002: 15.9
2003: 16.7
2004: 2.6
2005: 4.1
2006: 15.6
2007: 5.3
2008: 3.2
2009: 19.4
2010: 15.4
2011: 26.1

Once again, the numbers are all over the place, not showing any upward or downward trend.

Not "an inconvenient truth," nor "a hoax"

I bring up these quotes and these weather statistics because I think it's important to put things in a historical context whenever we experience what appears to be extreme weather here in Tulsa and the rest of Oklahoma.

I am quite open to accepting climate change/global warming as fact... when it is universally accepted by professionals and they have the statistics to back up such a statement.

Until then, I am not calling it "a hoax" (because I find that term a bit harsh), nor am I calling it "an inconvenient truth." It is simply an unproven hypothesis, for now at least.

--Althea Peterson

PS: You've read one side of the argument, but I bet you'd love to also read the other. Please check out Jerry Wofford's rebuttal here.

Reader Comments

11 Total

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Tulsa World Sr. Web Programmer Andrew Claude (7 months ago)

Comments now work on this page.

Captain Terrific (7 months ago)

I still cannot get a comment posted unless this reply posts!

Samtana (7 months ago)

Whether (no pun intended) Tulsa's temp is higher or lower, year by year is not important to me.

The north and south pole? Different story.

Tulsa World Staff Writer Althea Peterson (7 months ago)

Please check out Jerry's response! I will include a link to it at the bottom of the entry.

Richard Hart (7 months ago)

This column is an inside joke, or perhaps something some cub reporter lost a bet on and had to make up something off the top of their head, isn't it? Because if it isn't a practical joke I may have to rethink my Tulsa World subscription.

After all, when the author after quoting McManus uses a mere ten years as a "long term trend", students of the earth's climatology have to laugh out loud. Another belly laugh is quoting anything by Senator Inhofe related to climate change. The topper, though, is the "I am quite open to accepting climate change/global warming as fact... When it is universally accepted by professionals and they have the statistics to back up such a statement."

If the author would have spent a bit more time with her research she would have discovered that 99.5% of climate professionals do agree with global warming and they do have the data to back up that statement. The difficult part is filtering out the mammoth amounts of disinformation and obfuscation being produced by the oil and gas corporations, for which Sen. Inhofe is a paid representative.

232867 (7 months ago)

99.5% ? Who's making up something off the top of their head?

Tulsa World Staff Writer Althea Peterson (7 months ago)

"a mere ten years"

I would be happy to share more information. Here's more annual average temperatures for Tulsa in degrees Fahrenheit, with statistics provided by the National Weather Service:

1970: 59.4
1971: 60.2
1972: 59.6
1973: 60.0
1974: 60.0
1975: 59.5
1976: 59.1
1977: 61.7
1978: 59.7
1979: 59.2
1980: 62.6
1981: 61.5
1982: 61.3
1983: 60.3
1984: 60.8
1985: 59.6
1986: 61.3
1987: 61.6
1988: 60.5
1989: 59.1
1990: 63.0
1991: 62.5
1992: 60.7
1993: 58.2
1994: 60.2
1995: 60.2
1996: 59.8
1997: 59.3
1998: 62.5
1999: 62.1
2000: 60.7

Once again, my opinion is based primarily on two things: The meteorologists I speak to when discussing weather milestones and records (quoted above)and Tulsa's historical statistics that I review when checking the context of these milestones and records. That is why I presented my opinion in this way.

Lucky Ed (7 months ago)

Remember when "scientists" provided evidence for the tobacco companies that smoking was not harmful to health? Not long ago many people were convinced that information was indisputable. Today that notion is ridiculous.

N.O.A.A. scientists now say there is no doubt man's activities have helped cause climate changes. One day those statements against claims of global warming will be considered as ridiculous.

Did Mr. Inhofe ever come out with a position regarding alcohol or tobacco use?

Long Live Gusty! (7 months ago)

Ms. Peterson, thanks for the opinion piece. I look forward to reading Mr. Woffard's rebuttal. Contrary to what many claim, there are many honest, informed experts with no political axe to grind on both sides of the issue. Hopefully, as more data is gathered, a strong consensus will develop and if action is required, we will take it.

232867 (7 months ago)

The enemy of all warmers - the facts.
Thank you for a great article.

TU UP (7 months ago)

The facts-brought to you by Exxon-Mobile.

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

Weather World

Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

>> Visit the main weather page
>> Send us your weather photos
>> Meet the forecasters

Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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