News - Blogs - Yes its still hurricane season. Heres Sandy

Yes, it's still hurricane season. Here's Sandy
Published: 10/23/2012 5:00 PM
Last Modified: 10/23/2012 5:00 PM

Tropical Storm Sandy, from the NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab

In case you haven’t heard, the world is coming to an end next week. Well, maybe. OK, only if you live in New England. Hold on, maybe not.

It’s Tropical Storm Sandy (yes, it’s still hurricane season) that’s causing all the heartburn for meteorologists and weather enthusiasts. There is still a lot of model divergence, but some show the storm charging up the East Coast and making landfall next week in New England, then combining with a powerful cold front (that we’ll experience here this week) to make a Perfect Storm that would cause millions in damage and endanger thousands of lives.

Or, the cold front could weaken and Sandy could drift out to sea and die, with little effect or fanfare (except right now, when it’s forecast to impact Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas).

Those are some big differences. Weather experts are cautiously talking about that possibility, but the language some are using isn’t cautious at all.

The Capital Weather Gang blog at the Washington Post has a nice round-up of opinions from the Internet. Some are measured, others are hyperbolic. But what they all have in common is no one really knows what will happen.

Predicting with great certainty where Sandy, or any system for that matter, will be in seven to 10 days is difficult. That’s why forecasters rely on more than one model solution to inform their opinion. For example, this is one model, but different forecasts tracks.

When some of those models show the possible formation of a Perfect Storm, those forecasters have to walk a fine line between being over-zealous and alarmist and cautiously informing the public. Providing good information is critical, but inciting panic is irresponsible. That problem is not helped much by our constantly refreshing news environment, especially when talking about something that moves so slowly, like a tropical system. Cooler, measured heads should prevail

But that’s silly. Look at any sports shouting show on the myriad sports networks. Or you might have heard an election is on? And the dialogue there is measured and informative, for sure… Why should weather be different?

OK, rant over. Let’s talk about what Sandy is doing right now.

As of 4 p.m., the National Hurricane Center has Sandy about 260 miles south southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 50 mph and pressure at 993mb. It’s moving north northeast at 6 mph. It is currently forecast to be a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon over Jamaica and then charging to Cuba by Thursday morning. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for Haiti and watches are in effect for the Bahamas.

After that is where the divergence happens.

So, if you’re on the East Coast or plan to go there for some trick-or-treating next week, stay informed, aware and prepared, but wait until it’s closer before you lose it.

-- Jerry Wofford

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Almanac

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec

	Temperature		Precipitation
Date	High Temp	Low Temp	Total	Month to date	Historical average
1	44°	16°	0	0.00	0.05
2	59°	24°	0	0.00	0.11
3	57°	33°	0	0.00	0.16
4	68°	37°	Trace	0.00	0.21
5	69°	29°	0	0.00	0.26
6	66°	33°	0	0.00	0.32
7	59°	38°	0.05	0.05	0.38
8	51°	34°	0	0.05	0.44
9	44°	36°	0.01	0.06	0.51
10	62°	37°	0.07	0.13	0.57
11	54°	28°	0	0.13	0.64
12	44°	30°	0.25	0.38	0.70
13	55°	40°	0.01	0.39	0.76
14	°	°			0.83
15	°	°			0.89
16	°	°			0.95
17	°	°			1.02
18	°	°			1.09
19	°	°			1.16
20	°	°			1.23
21	°	°			1.31
22	°	°			1.38
23	°	°			1.46
24	°	°			1.53
25	°	°			1.61
26	°	°			1.69
27	°	°			1.77
28	°	°			1.85

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

SNOWFALL

Weather World

Follow Jerry Wofford on Twitter for updates during severe weather conditions.

Tulsa weather milestones of 2013 (as of Feb. 12)

Highest temperature: 70 on Jan. 11 (Record: 115 on Aug. 15, 1936)
Lowest temperature: 15 on Jan. 16 (Record: Minus-16 on Jan. 22, 1930)
Hottest month (average): 40.5 degrees in January (Record: 91.7 degrees on July 1980)
Coldest month (average): 40. 5 degrees in January (Record: 21.7 in January 1918)
Most snowfall (day): 0.1 of an inch on Feb. 12(Record: 13.2 inches on Feb. 1, 2011)
Most snowfall (month): 0.1 of an inch in February(Record: 22.5 inches in February 2011)
Most rainfall (day): 0.91 of an inch on Jan. 29 (Record: 9.27 inches on May 26-27, 1984)
Most rainfall (month): 1.54 of an inch in January (Record: 18.18 inches on September 1971)
Highest wind speed: 30 mph on Jan. 30
Previous day with any rain: Feb. 12
Previous day with 1 inch or more of rain: Oct. 17, 2012
Previous day with any snow: Feb. 12
Previous day with freezing temperatures: Feb. 12
Read regular updates on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather and learn more about meteorology from the Tulsa office of the National Weather Service.

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>> Send us your weather photos
>> Meet the forecasters

Contributors
Staff Writer Althea Peterson started writing for the Tulsa World in March 2007 after previous stops at the Norman Transcript in 2006 and the Oklahoma Gazette in 2005. She followed her older brother from rural Wisconsin (with a public school that never seemed to call snow days) to the University of Oklahoma, but did not follow his pursuit to study meteorology. However, she tries to find as many opportunities to report on the weather as possible.

Staff Writer Jerry Wofford came to the Tulsa World in 2010 from The Manhattan Mercury in Manhattan, Kan. Originally from western Arkansas and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma, Jerry has lived in Tornado Alley his entire life and is one of those people who goes outside when the sirens go off.

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