May I have your attention, please: I’d like to announce a new arrival.
He’s just a little guy, but Isaac just came into the world, and today he got a name.
Tropical Storm Isaac is the latest named storm in the Atlantic. A few hours ago, he was just named Tropical Depression Nine, which gave the impression that he was dreadfully boring.
But he’s not! He went from a tropical depression to a fully named storm in a day, moving west at a blistering 17 mph at the last check with winds in excess of 40 mph and a pressure of 1006 mb.
So, yeah. He’s still kinda small. But, Isaac is expected to grow quickly. Isaac should be a hurricane by Thursday after charging through the central Lesser Antilles late Wednesday.
Isaac is the ninth named storm to visit the Atlantic and Caribbean so far this year. If it becomes a hurricane, it will be the fourth such storm this year.
Isaac came along after scientists
changed their prediction for the remainder of the hurricane season (which is kinda like changing your horse mid-race, but this is important so they get a pass this time). Forecasters still believe there is a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but raised their chances of an above-normal season to 35 percent.
The forecast, revised Aug. 9, now calls for 12 to 17 named storms, five to eight hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes (Category 3 or above).
This upward revision comes despite an increasing chance of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically produces a calmer Atlantic season.
So, why the change? To the experts!
“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”
Also, El Nino (the warming of water in the Pacific off the coast of South America) isn’t expected to really start up until later this year, too late for it to affect this year’s season.
While it’s too early to tell if Isaac will strike the mainland United States, its long-term forecast takes it near Hispaniola and across Cuba.
And it also gives me the chance to post this video of this poor reporter covering a typhoon in China earlier this month.
This unfortunate event in this woman's life makes me happy that 1) I work in newspapers and 2) live in landlocked area.
--Jerry Wofford
