"It's the economy, stupid." That was the mantra of the Bill Clinton presidential campaign and it was accurate. But, "It's always the economy, stupid." People will vote their pocketbooks every time, no matter what else is going on.
A year ago, I foolishly would have argued that the war in Iraq was the focus of most Americans. It was, back then. In the last year, however, something has happened and it is $4-a-gallon gasoline.
This could be Barack Obama's Achilles' heel. It's not only the economy, but it's very specifically energy.
For Obama to carry those Rust Belt states and maybe even coax some Southern states with their Reagan Democrats back into the Democratic fold, he might have to run the risk of angering his base.
More and more polls are showing that Americans want some relief and are tired of being dependent on foreign countries to supply us the fuel we need. Let's put aside for a moment that Americans and their government dug themselves into this hole by ignoring alternative fuel research for the last 20 or 30 years and continuing to drive vehicles that get about 10 miles to the gallon. That horse already left the barn.
What many, if not most, Americans other than Californians and some along the southern coastline are ready for is further oil exploration within our borders. They are willing to see some offshore rigs if that means lower gasoline prices.
If Obama caters to the left coast, most of whose residents don't want any new drilling offshore or any new refineries, he will run the risk of losing the Midwest and South. The fact is, barring some extraordinary circumstances, California will vote Democratic in the November election.
The Democrats have the same problem as the Republicans. The primaries are often dominated by the extremists. A Democratic candidate has to court the left in the primaries just as the Republican has to woo the right.
So, Obama has to play that extreme environmental game. No new offshore drilling.
There is a middle ground, if only we could find it. Obama would seem to be the one candidate who could lead us to it. We can drill for undiscovered oil within our borders and build new refineries in an environmentally safe way and step up research into an alternative fuel.
All this is going to take years. You don't simply poke a hole in the ground and find oil. We can't overnight develop a car that runs on a viable alternative source. New refineries or even nuclear power plants take years to get online.
But we can't sit on our hands and not do anything. We need to do all of it at the same time.
I think if Obama overplays the environmental issue, he risks losing the election. The war is important and it ought to remain one of the main issues of this campaign. But in the end "it's $4-a-gallon gasoline, stupid."
