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One voter's Heisman methodology

By JOHN E. HOOVER Sports Columnist on Dec 8, 2012, at 7:59 PM  Updated on 12/08 at 8:25 PM



GAME POINT

Major kudos to West Virginia baseball coach, Big 12 Conference

West Virginia baseball coach Randy Mazey said something during a conference call on Tuesday that I was going to use to take ...

Somehow, Gundy has created yet another PR mess with Lunt

Wish we knew more about the details of why Mike Gundy has blocked Wes Lunt’s intention to transfer from Oklahoma State to ...

Could Stoops still go to Iowa? What made Marcus Allen so good? And be careful crossing the street

Got a chance to visit with Ed Podolak on Monday at the golf tournament fundraiser for Langston football, and he articulated ...

CONTACT THE BLOGGER

John E. Hoover

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It’s Saturday night. The Heisman Trophy winner has been announced.

So here’s how I voted.

First, a clarification: The Heisman goes to college football’s “most outstanding player.” That means there are no criteria, no guidelines. Only that a player is eligible. Which, this year in particular, is no clarification at all. A lot of really good players had a really good year for some really good teams.

So, three weeks ago, I amassed my own little watch list. OK, not so little. There were 18 names on my original list:

Tavon Austin, Montee Ball, Kenjon Barner, Tajh Boyd, Ka’Deem Carey, Jadeveon Clowney, Jarvis Jones, Landry Jones, Collin Klein, Marqise Lee, Johnny Manziel, E.J. Manuel, Marcus Mariota, A.J. McCarron, Braxton Miller, Aaron Murray, Geno Smith and Manti Te’o all made my preliminary list after the Nov. 17 games.

Again, there are almost no guidelines for choosing the nation’s “most outstanding player.” It’s terribly subjective. What are the most important things a player does to be outstanding? Is it measured statistically? Is it less empirical, like what a defensive player — or maybe even an offensive lineman — gives to his team in the form of leadership or will power? Is winning important? Should it be the main factor, or should it be any factor at all? Or is it just the “eyeball test,” another immeasurable quality that allows a player to jump out at you when you see him play?

Maybe it’s something else entirely.

By my own measure, it’s all of those things, and more. But here are three factors to which I give the most weight in filling out my Heisman ballot:

* Winning: Some think team success shouldn’t impact whether or not a player is outstanding. I strongly disagree. Winning is at the very center of everything these guys do. They don’t sign with schools thinking their team will lose. They don’t spill their guts in backbreaking winter and summer workouts believing this is the year they go 7-5. Listen to every Heisman winner for the last, oh, 20 or 30 years. They always say this is a team award. Winning is everything, and it should be a major factor in picking a Heisman winner.

Does that mean only those playing in the BCS national championship game should get a vote? Of course not. Tim Tebow won in a landslide when his team went 9-3. Some years a guy just stands out above everyone else, and a couple losses are OK. In a year like 2012, where there are truly no players alone on a pedestal, it’s tough to pick. That’s why winning is so important.

(I recall the 2004 season when Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Jason White and Adrian Peterson were all playing for unbeaten teams in the title game. They all had amazing individual seasons and their teams were on fire. That was easy. Sort of. Picking one winner of the final four was a little tougher. White won the year before. Leinart won that year. Bush won the next year. And Peterson probably should have won.)

Put it this way: the most outstanding players I saw this season were Marqise Lee, Tavon Austin, Jadeveon Clowney and Jarvis Jones. Between those four, their teams lost 14 times this season. I didn’t immediately remove either of them from consideration. In fact, two — the two who played for five-loss teams — made my final cut-down.

* Big-time/clutch: Another deciding factor — and this can be either highly subjective or perfectly precise — is how a player performs against good opposition and how much of his “outstandingness” comes from playing against bad teams.

For example, a person, presumably a Notre Dame fan, sent voters an email blast before last week’s games informing everyone that yes, Manziel accounted for 43 total touchdowns this season, but 10 of those came against weak-sister Championship Subdivision opponents. I already was aware of that, but I’m guessing many voters were not.

(Another aside came up while watching ESPN on Friday. During an “Outside the Lines” segment, panelist Paul Finebaum — an Alabama sportswriter turned broadcaster who in January was named one of the most influential people in college football (one of two from the media) — admitted that he didn’t pay much attention to college football around the rest of the country and that he got most of his national Heisman lowdown from another “OTL” panelist, ESPN’s Joe Tessitore. Not trying to sound sanctimonious here, but I find that pretty appalling. One of the game’s most influential people who works within college football’s best conference gets his information from a four-minute ESPN segment on Sunday mornings? What, then, do the other 926 Heisman voters know when they cast their vote?)

* Consistency: My last major factor (I do consider others) is a player’s week-to-week contributions. Did he have one big game that thrust him in the spotlight? Did he have games where he flat-out disappeared? Or did he produce for his team, every game, with his performance being key to victory?

Trimming my list down was tough.

I dropped Carey, the fine running back from Arizona. Too many losses. I dropped Ball, last year’s Heisman finalist from Wisconsin. Too many losses. I dropped McCarron, the quarterback from Alabama. An extremely average passer who benefits from the nation’s best offensive line and two stud running backs. I dropped Barner, the astonishing running back from Oregon. A supremely talented player, but too many quiet games. I dropped Smith, the amazing QB from West Virginia. Too many losses and some head-scratcher throws that kept his team from winning.

Down to 13. Two games left.

After the Nov. 24 games, I dropped Mariota, the dynamic QB from Oregon. Consistent and dynamic, but not even the best freshman QB in the country, and maybe the third-best player on his own offense. I dropped Manuel, the big-play QB from Florida State. His two worst games were defeats. I dropped Clowney, the uber-talented defensive end from South Carolina. Up-and-down numbers and minimal impact in SC’s two losses.

Ten to go. With the season over, I had more cuts to make.

After Dec. 1, I dropped Jarvis Jones, the big-play linebacker from Georgia. Great SEC title game, but missed two games and had little impact in the loss to South Carolina. I dropped Landry Jones, the record-setting QB from Oklahoma. Two great comebacks, but 0-2 against top teams and his mistakes cost one of them. I dropped Boyd, the ridiculously talented QB from Clemson. Lots of big plays, but two quality opponents, two bad games, two losses. I dropped Murray, the stud QB from Georgia. Awful in one loss, curious decisions in another.

Six left. Now it’s getting hard.

I dropped Austin, the ethereal playmaker from West Virginia. His 572 all-purpose yards against OU was the best individual game I’ve ever witnessed, and he didn’t have anything resembling a bad game all year. But, through no fault of his own, the Mountaineers piled up too many losses. Sorry, but that counts.

I dropped Lee, the future All-Pro receiver from Southern California. The best offensive player in the nation, I think. But — again, not his fault— too many losses and, in a prime time contest with Notre Dame, had arguably his worst game.

I dropped Miller, the dual-threat QB from Ohio State. Miller carried the Buckeyes to an undefeated season with effective passing and often punishing running. Miller was consistently good all season, but too often, and against a middling Big Ten schedule, he wasn’t great. I didn’t punish him for the Buckeyes’ NCAA troubles, but I did consider that players with no postseason hopes don’t have to perform with that added pressure.

So I’m down to three: Klein, Manziel and Te’o.

In the No. 3 spot, I put Klein, the quarterback from Kansas State and a cross between George S. Patton and Pa Ingalls. Who can nitpick this guy? Nobody meant more to his team. No offensive player has been more consistent. It was hard, but I came to lean on one factor: at Baylor, against what was college football’s worst defense, with the national championship dangling in front of him, Klein threw three interceptions and the Wildcats lost. If Klein doesn’t implode, K-State wins and he’s my runaway winner.

I ranked Johnny Manziel second. How could I not vote for Johnny Football? I know, I hate puppies, too, right? Manziel is deserving. All the numbers, all the eye-popping plays — this kid’s got Heisman written all over him. He’s second in the nation in total offense and points accounted for. And hey, despite my overanalyzing everything, he went into Saturday night as the odds-on-favorite to win. But I didn’t vote him first for a couple of reasons: Texas A&M won 10 games but didn’t even win its division. In three games against really good teams (and three really good defenses), the Aggies were 1-2. Manziel threw three interceptions against LSU (not entirely his fault, but these things always even out). His two best statistical games were against defenses ranked 72nd and 120th. And while he deserves endless applause for his performance at Alabama, if McCarron doesn’t throw a goal-line interception, Johnny Football is probably watching the Heisman ceremony from College Station.

I voted for Manti Te’o, the indomitable linebacker from Notre Dame. I don’t believe I’ve ever voted for a defensive player. I didn’t even have Ndamukong Suh on my ballot in 2009. But Te’o gets my vote this year for a number of reasons. The Irish are undefeated and playing for the national championship. That says something about Te’o and his unbreakable will. He’s second in the nation with seven interceptions. That’s the most by a linebacker in some two decades. His diving pick at OU probably saved the game and the season for the Golden Domers. He had 103 total tackles this season, and his lowest tackle output of the year was five. He was remarkably consistent. The only things I could downgrade him for was his tackles-per-game average in November (5.8) and the fact that he has three or four future NFL draft picks playing in front of him that allow him to make plays.

So there you have it. Manti Te’o. Undefeated, clutch in big games and consistent. He also gets consideration for character, leadership, will power and all the immeasurable qualities that make a college football player “outstanding.”
GAME POINT

Major kudos to West Virginia baseball coach, Big 12 Conference

West Virginia baseball coach Randy Mazey said something during a conference call on Tuesday that I was going to use to take ...

Somehow, Gundy has created yet another PR mess with Lunt

Wish we knew more about the details of why Mike Gundy has blocked Wes Lunt’s intention to transfer from Oklahoma State to ...

Could Stoops still go to Iowa? What made Marcus Allen so good? And be careful crossing the street

Got a chance to visit with Ed Podolak on Monday at the golf tournament fundraiser for Langston football, and he articulated ...

CONTACT THE BLOGGER

John E. Hoover

918-581-8384
Email

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Graduation

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