Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook."
Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty."
I'll make predictions the week of the Oscars, but it's easy to go ahead and cut down the number of contenders for those who wanting to catch up on their Oscar-viewing.
BEST ACTRESS
The mix: It takes one of the weakest years in recent memory for women's roles for the Academy to name both its oldest-ever nominee (Riva, 85, for "Amour") and its youngest-ever nominee (Wallis, 9, of "Beasts of the Southern Wild").
That left candidates like past-winner Marion Cotillard (for the French "Rust and Bone") looking in from the outside, but "Amour" may have consumed all of the voter's foreign votes.
Oscar night: This is a two-woman race, for performances that could hardly be more different, but both of which define the unlimited range
of two of Hollywood's most talented stars.
Lawrence comes from the drama field to show herself to be a comedic genius, while Chastain goes to dark places as a CIA operative after last year's flighty role in "The Help." These two women will compete for years to come.
BEST ACTOR
The mix: In a category consisting of largely the expected choices, there are those who never really got a look from the Academy and should have (Jack Black in "Bernie," Jake Gyllenhaal in "End of Watch"), and then there is the outright snub of John Hawkes in "The Sessions," which is one of the many oversights that Hollywood baffled.
It would be one thing if he didn't deserve to be nominated, but Hawkes' beautiful, compassionate portrayal of a disabled man looking for love is one of the year's standout efforts.
Oscar night: Daniel Day-Lewis' performance will define for the next couple of generations their image of what Abraham Lincoln was really like, as he gives us the man rather than the myth. "Lincoln" is a good but flawed film; Day-Lewis alone raises it closer to greatness.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The mix: A rarity in that every nominee is a previous winner of one Oscar, so somebody will have a matching pair come Feb. 24.
The list of those not noticed here is long (John Goodman for "Flight" and "Argo," Ezra Miller of "The Perks of Being a Wallflower," too many more to name), but the big surprise was Waltz taking the "Django Unchained" nomination that most believed was destined for Leonardo DiCaprio.
Oscar night: This one is a real puzzler, with Waltz the only odd man out come Oscar night. Arkin might be next, because his role is smaller, and he won more recently than the others.
A likely three-man race between De Niro, Hoffman and Jones with no clear leader. The ceremony needs more such surprises.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The mix: Why is Jacki Weaver here, for a role that as written left her so little to do? That's the strength of Harvey Weinstein's campaigning for "Silver Linings Playbook," which could lead to great things for one of his expected 2013 movies and a local favorite: "August: Osage County."
Several exceptional performances didn't have a shot (Emily Blunt of "Looper," Rosemarie DeWitt of "Your Sister's Sister").
Oscar night: A two-woman race (with Helen Hunt as a dark horse) between Anne Hathaway and Sally Field.
Hathaway would appear to be the favorite for her showstopping performance in "Les Miserables" as the doomed Fantine, full of raw emotions and completely nailing a live rendition of the musical’s most popular song. However, ruling out Field as Mrs. Lincoln would be a mistake, despite two previous wins.
