I took this photo back in August of a slightly blooming crape myrtle in my backyard. That month's weather was very confused, going from triple digit heat to rain, so naturally, the plants were confused as well.
As I write this late Thursday, the National Weather Service once again forecasted a 100 percent chance of rain, this time for Friday.
Having seen that on a few other occasions (including for Stillwater for the OU-OSU football game last fall, when it did indeed rain), I decided to ask Tulsa National Weather Service meteorologist Karen Hatfield what provokes forecasters to make such a bold prediction.
"If a weather forecaster uses the 100 percent tag, it's safe to say that that forecaster would be absolutely shocked if it didn't materialize, so in effect, it's as close to a sure thing in a highly imperfect science as you can get," Hatfield said.
"I'm sure there have been times that a 100 percent forecast hasn't materialized, but those would be very, very few with an experienced forecaster because it takes a lot for someone to go out on a limb like that."
Very true. It's why my lawn seed bag is 99.9 percent weed-free, or many other things out there will only claim 99.9 (sometimes with even more nines following) accuracy, effectiveness, dependability, you name it. So, what has the forecaster so convinced?
"You will most often see a 100 percent forecast in a stratiform precipitation scenario (or a hurricane) because the precipitation is likely to be widespread then," Hatfield said. "You will rarely, if ever, see 100 percent chance when dealing with thunderstorms, unless a squall line is expected, because thunderstorm rain is more hit and miss - except in the squall line scenario."
So, by the time you read this Friday, it is pretty safe bet to say that Tulsa has been rained on, is currently being rained on, or will be rained on sometime Friday, despite our ongoing drought issues.
Speaking of, here is our fun Oklahoma drought game of the week. Can you spot the drought map differences? For added fun, I am including a more regional map, if for no other reason than to show how Oklahoma is better off than Texas:
Had your chance to find the differences? Here's the GIF image to show the answers:
It is hard to believe how far this area's come, so here is a comparison between September and progress up till now:
As you can see, areas that used to be in the dreaded dark red region, D4 for exceptional drought, are now completely clear of drought classification, in white.
In Oklahoma specifically, about one-quarter of the state is now drought classification-free. Texas' Dallas-Fort Worth region is also now drought classification-free.
I hope this makes up for the groundhog's prediction of winter yesterday (read Jerry's take on that
here). If not, know that next week's report will be even better, because some reliable forecasters (sorry Punxsutawney Phil, I don't find you credible) said so. I don't know about you, but if someone is willing to say with 100 percent certainty that something is going to happen, you take them quite seriously.
--Althea Peterson
