Your White Christmas dreams are about to become a reality. And they could become nightmares.
Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for a large swath across Oklahoma and into Arkansas, with the latest forecast from the National Weather Service office in Tulsa calling for 4 to 8 inches of snow across central Oklahoma into western Arkansas, with 3 or so predicted for the Tulsa area.
Tulsa may avoid the brunt of this storm, but forecasters said not all models agree. The warning area is wide to account for where the brunt of the storm will most likely hit. Tulsa will most likely see at least some of this snow.
Winter storms are hard to predict because it can be difficult for the models to predict with accuracy most people are expecting where the snow band will form and move.
But, wherever the track and most significant snowfall occurs, travel will be difficult and hazardous. The winter storm warning says people should plan on moving those plans around if you had planned to travel Tuesday or Wednesday. And you may not have a choice if roads are closed, a real possibility.
On top of the snow, winds could gust to 30 mph, blowing snow everywhere and dropping wind chills to zero or below.
Those are not good conditions in which to be stuck.
But, doom and gloom aside for a moment, White Christmas!
That hasn't happened in Tulsa since 2009, when there was 6 inches of snow. That was also the last time it actually snowed on Christmas. You can see all that climatology and more at the Tulsa NWS climate page
here.
So, technically a White Christmas for a historical climatological standpoint is at least 1 inch of snow on Christmas. We'll most likely get that, and most likely break records for most snow to fall on Christmas day, but since the Christmas snowfall total has been measured at 6 a.m., that record of 6 inches in 2009 will most likely stand.
If you look at the rest of the historical data, you can see that tomorrow's winter storm is definitely a rare event for Christmas Day. I can't really remember an event like this expected to occur actually on Christmas Day. The record for snow on Christmas Day is 1.3 inches in 1975. That record is in jeopardy tomorrow.
Snow contest update: When I saw the kids from Jenks Middle School pick Christmas for the first day of measurable snow, which was the tiebreaker for the total, I thought that was cute, but chances were slim to none. Well, it looks like Madison may have nailed it. That bright childhood optimism paid off!
But again on a serious note, if you plan to travel over the next few days, you should really pay attention to the weather and consider making changes. I'm a 20-something male, a demographic not known for making the wisest decisions when it comes to my own personal safety and I plan to leave the bulls eye of western Arkansas early to make sure I get back to Tulsa in time. If I've changed my plans, you should consider it.
If you absolutely must travel, do not mess around and prepare to be stranded if that occurs. Winter storms can be serious, and this one has that potential.
--Jerry Wofford
