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Can OU Keep It Close With OSU?
Published:
11/14/2011 2:19 PM
Last Modified:
11/14/2011 2:19 PM
The question is no longer can OSU beat OU.
The answer to that one is yes.
More to the point, after losing to Texas Tech in Norman in a game that will keep the Sooners out of a national championship contest no matter what happens the rest of the way, some wonder if OU can stay on the field with the Cowboys.
Here is the way the game breaks down at first glance: Quarterback, advantage OSU; runners, advantage OSU; receivers, tie; kicking game, advantage OSU; defense, tie.
What gives OU a chance: History and nerves.
You want some of Oregon at the present? Thought not.
As guaranteed here before the game kicked off, the Stanford, Luck, hoaxes were exposed. Luck is immobile and dinks and doinks. The Stanford defense is no good.
Some hot air is being spread locally about a lack of support for TU football. TU is not only in competition with OU and OSU, it is in competition with the Penn State-Nebraska game, with powerhouses on TV. The more TU wins, the better it will draw, it's the curse of small schools in big-time neighborhoods. The Houston game should be great. Otherwise, Marshall or the best on TV, you pick.
As regards local basketball, at first glance it appears pretty average.
Interesting, isn't it, how two of the best teams, OSU and Oregon, are billionaire donor favorites.
Reader Comments
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sokodad
(last year)
Picker, as I understand your oft-discussed rating system, Bedlam is a classic "medium game" for Bob (ie, a game without national championship implications for OU but one where he could win the conference and advance to a BCS bowl).
Bob has demonstrated that he is very good in these medium games. That's an advantage for OU. There will be pressure on both teams, but here's what's on the line for the Pokes:
Undefeated regular season
first 12-win season in history
Shot at the MNC
Heisman for Weed
Bilitnikoff repeat for Black
half mill bonus if Gundy wins Bedlam
Holder realizing that Coach needs a new deal.
As to your point about the financial commitment to winning, Barry told us three years ago, "Look out. It's comin'."
In that the only players on our roster who were recruited with the new facilities are either redshirt freshmen or sophomores, perhaps it has come sooner than even Barry would have predicted.
The Picker
(last year)
Soko, all that you listed made me nervous.
What's the point spread, OSU by 2, 3, 3 and a half?
Three and a half would be a good number, good, as in, tough.
Boner55
(last year)
Ou will be favored in this one men, Sorry! OU-14
sokodad
(last year)
My bad; I should've said that Bob, with a win, could win a share of the conference title with oSu and qualify for a BCS bowl. As I think Bob would rather chop the title than have oSu win it outright, I still am of the opinion that the game has all the markings of a medium game for Bob. We call him Medium Game Bob because, historically, he wins these things.
The Picker
(last year)
Actually, I think this one is a Big Game.
A Medium Game is OU versus West Virginia in a dopey Bowl.
OU-OSU with a national championship game on the line, Big Game all the way.
And it hasn't been Big Game Bob for a decade.
soonerk
(last year)
In reply to : "More to the point, after losing to Texas Tech in Norman in a game that will keep the Sooners out of a national championship contest no matter what happens the rest of the way"
I think they'll go ahead and play the games anyway, even though you don't think they need to. Nothing is written in stone. Can't just compare 1 loss against another. You have to also compare wins against opponents wins. If OU wins out, they will have beaten 5 top-25 teams on the road....with the last one being above them at #2. Also, look at KSU....only losses were OU and OSU. OSU struggled with them "at home"....OU beat them soundly "on the road". Just goes to show that any team can turn in a clunker. Can't write them off. But I'm sure in your little world, its already over. Must be pretty lonely in your own little world......
sokodad
(last year)
I stand corrected, Pick. I tought you only rated the games from OU's perspective. If you take into account the opponent's stakes, I agree, since this is the biggest game in the history of oSu football, that Bedlam would be rated as "Big" (I forgot to list "first post-war era undisputed conference title" on the oSu pressure-meter).
Now that you have rated it as a "Big" game, I feel much better for my Pokes. :)
The Picker
(last year)
Soonerk, voters simply must find a way to overcome this: Lost at home to Texas Tech.
Come on, now, does anybody who did that actually deserve to play in a one-game situation for the title?
A four-team, or more, tourney, sure.
KevinMD
(last year)
2008 Florida lost at home to Ole Miss. They were favored by 21. We know how that ended. Sometimes losing when you are favored to win is enough motivation to get back on track.
redriverndn
(last year)
Too bad OU ruined what could have been a must-see college football game for American football fans....
Oh well, what do you expect from a program that can't win a National title with a couple Heisman Trophy winners & a pair of record breaking NFL running backs....
bjorn2run
(last year)
....and 3 of the top 4 picks in the NFL draft.
JG78
(last year)
Come on pick... The breakdown is more like this.
Quarterback: OSU by a slim margin. Weeden is great but for christ sakes he gets 6-8 seconds to throw the ball. Only OU has the ability to get to him and rattle him. Look at last years game and what Texas did to him this year. I like OU's chances if they can dial up pressure and get to
Weeden.
Runners: OSU by a large margin. Depth is the issue. I like Finch and he compares favorably wiht Smith and Randal. The future looks great for Brandon Williams...He may be the best out of all of them when it is all said and done.
Receivers: OU by a slim margin. Even without Broyles the collective group at OU is better. Pick you could play receiver at OSU when the quarterback has 8 seconds to throw the ball.
Defense- OU by a slim margin. OSU gives up a ton of yards and forces a lot of turnovers. However, OU forces a ton of turnovers and puts preassure on the quarterback. Bottom line: top to bottom OU's defense if far more talented and athletic. OU will come up with a great gameplan to slow OSU.
Kicker: OSU by a mile
Punter: Push
Coaching: OU
What big game has Gundy won?
Bedlam last year? Nope
Big 12 championship? Nope
A minor bowl against the Arizona's and Indiana's of the world? Yep - Big Game Bob by a land slide.
Every game OU loses is a big game because we are expected to win them all....
Danomite Dandy Dan
(last year)
Weeden will have a heyday with OU defense.
OU will have the ball on offense longer than OSU,
but still loses by 2 touchdowns.
Solo
(last year)
If OU plays OSU like everyone has except K-State, OSU has it in the bag. Statistically, OSU simply has the better team. Here's what OU must do to win:
-Avoid turnovers
-Avoid penalties
-Make 1st downs..keep OSU offense on the sideline
-Convert TDs in the red zone. FGs won't do it
Basically, they must play the game of their lives.
Lesson from TT: the best team doesn't always win.
Forget the coaches - this one comes down to players making plays...
The Picker
(last year)
Medium Game Bob could be in deep here.
Danomite Dandy Dan
(last year)
Blackmon won't have to catch every pass that hits his hands. Sad to say, every other one will be enough.
The Picker
(last year)
What will tickets cost, $1,000 for the peanut gallery?
Blue Max
(last year)
If you know where I can get a grand for my halfway-up 22-yardline seat, let me know.
Danomite Dandy Dan
(last year)
How many commercials would I miss?
P.OswaldBoone
(last year)
I'm getting a serious sense of deja vu. The OSU fans are repeating themselves, I guess someday according to the law of averages, they will win. It's 2010 all over again.
Blue Max
(last year)
You're exactly right, POB. I thought State would beat OU last year in Stillwater, but it didn't happen. Only 60 minutes after the gun will it be for sure. Ou is still OU.
JG78
(last year)
Pick... Stoops isn't over his head.... Why should OU be scared? It is the same story another year. OSU on the brink and has an opportunity to erase so many demons by beating OU at home... Yet Junior Varsity Mike will choke this one off big time.
I have always said expectations are a b**ch and OSU is going to feel the presurre December 3rd. OU will come in the under dog and the talent and coaching advantage will be evident after the OU win.
42-24 OU.
Blue Max
(last year)
Dream on, JG. The Orange Wave is cresting and promises to make Oklahoma a greater football rich state than ever before with its three highly successful teams, and right now, OU is second-ran.
MexiMike
(last year)
JG78, you are faulting the OSU receivers because the offensive line is so good? Really?
From top to bottom, OSU has the best receivers with Broyles out and it can't even be argued.
With Broyles in, it would be a push.
By the way, it is definitely not "the same story, a different year." You must not be watching the OSU games. This team plays with a much different attitude than I have ever seen. Cool, calm, and collected the whole way no matter what the score.
If you really think the final score is going to be 42-24, please give me an email address and the amount of money you'd like to wager. That's easy money.
JG78
(last year)
MexiMike,
The receivers are a product of the system. Just saying Stills, Miller, and Reynolds are as good if not better than anyone on OSU's roster not named blackmon...
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The Picker began entertaining – and infuriating – sports fans in 1993. Each week during football season, he writes about his picks of college and NFL games in his Thursday Sports column. He's never afraid of sharing his opinions about the game and the personalities who play it. Readers have a chance to go against him each season in the Outpick the Picker contest. He welcomes the competition.
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