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It's Always Almost Fall Somewhere
Published: 6/21/2007 4:48 PM
Last Modified: 6/21/2007 4:48 PM

It's time to talk football.


One secret of successful football handicapping is avoiding the obvious unless it can't lose.


Was that a joke?


Maybe.


Probably 95 percent of sports fans are victims of the ovbious, which is to say that over the course of a season, they won't pick winners anywhere near half the time.


Here's an early thought that runs contrary to the obvious: easy schedules don't make champions. Most pinheads look for simple home schedules and predict national title runs off that. All you hear now is West Virginia and LSU. The truth about weak schedules is that they leave a team ill-prepared for championship challenges. A team with a purposefully weak schedule will never, once, ever, win a national championship. Sissy schedules are for those wishing to improve their images. Weak schedules make perfect sense for wannabes. If you're a champion, you will have earned your way there with good competition. A non-conference schedule of nothing but sure wins is for chumps.


The first football vibe of the year just came through. It was: OU should beware of Miami.True, Miami has no offense. But OU's recent history of starting slow is of concern.







Reader Comments 17 Total

WG (6 years ago)
Couldn't agree with you more about the OU Miami setup. Everyone in Oklahoma...and I mean everyone you talk with...discounts Miami because of Kyle Wright's ineffectiveness in '06 and because of their so-so record. Big mistake. The Hurricanes are returning 9 offensive starters, seven defensive starters and have a new, sharp, motivated coach - Randy Shannon. Shannon's defenses have been ranking in the top ten nationally for almost every season he's been in charge of the defense down there; and to add worry to worry, he played linebacker on all three teams that beat the Sooners in the mid-eighties. Miami is definitely a dog that'll bite and if Oklahoma's secondary isn't ready on September 8th, the Miami curse will continue.
Steven (6 years ago)
Some OU fans may discount Miami, but I would hardly say that everyone is. Most OU fans remember TCU.

Most OU fans know that there are a lot of issues that need to be shored up. Many people are focusing on the QB. Understandable, but OU hasn't had stability (2-3 year starter) at that position for a long time. Further and as grateful as I am for the leader that Paul Thompson was for OU, any 3 of the QB's that are working for the job can make the throws and shoulder the light load of responsibility PT had.

The biggest issue is getting the defensive ends to play way above their pay grade and getting the LB's to form a cohesive unit. Losing Latimer/Alexander was tough. The overall defense will be tested mightily versus Miami. Until then, nobody has any idea what kind of push that front 4 will get to help take pressure off the secondary.

WG (6 years ago)
A lot of truth in what Steven wrote. But I must say I've yet to talk with many OU fans who are worried about Miami...but admittedly, I'm living in St Louis at the moment (although I still have many ties down south). Miami may have been week at qb last year with Wright choking more often than not, but this year they have Kirby Freeman chomping at the bit to replace him; both lines are salty, one year older and nasty, the Canes are dangerous at wr now that Sam Shields is healthy (add Ryan Hill, Brian McNeil, Khalil Jones, Joe Tolliver, Terrance Thomason to the mix and it will be dangerous), running back is solid with Charlie Jones, Derron Thomas, and Edgerrin James lil' bro' Javarris. OU has the home field advantage but they also had it in '85 when they won the national championship and still lost to Miami in the early days (and after Troy Aikman was disabled, we were starting a frosh qb then as well....). Bottom line? Stoops better keep a very, very close eye on Venables and make doubly certain that all those quality players in the secondary are in position more often than not. And it might be a good idea to put DJ Wolfe on the sidelines for this one.
JOHN (6 years ago)
Shoot, you guys are crazy if you are worried about Miami. It's the Sooners we are talking about,the SOONERS baby!!! My prediction is OU 52 Miami 3. I am serious, NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP YEAR!! Easy
WG (6 years ago)
John, my friend, carefully...very carefully...make your way to the nearest chair and sit down. Lean your head back...relax. Now, pick up the telephone and call your nearest heathcare provider...use the emergency number. You need attention. It's very difficult to take you seriously, but in the even that you are serious and if you'd care to lay one-eighth the points you're spouting off about, I'll take Miami (though I loathe them...), the points, and let's bet the titles to our automobiles. Sound like something you'd be interested in doing?
world picker (6 years ago)
OU's slow starts under Stoops are worth thought.



Part of it was an illusion, as TCU was really nice. And Tulsa was pretty salty when it took OU down to the one tough Peterson run, late.



It would appear that once more OU could be one of the most overrated teams in college football -- Street and Smith magazine, which is to say one writer -- has OU top rated in the Big 12! The Sooners are in top tens everywhere, and are in top fives in many publications, nation-wide.



These things stand in the way of an OU top ten finish, in order of peril.



1. Secondary pass defense performance.



Yeah, that's more important than quarterback. Torchings from Oregon and Boise, and glaring inconsistencies in years past, suggest schematic problems.



2. Quarterback.

Actually, those guys looked solid in the spring game, even though the playbook was the size of a postage stamp.



3. Texas.



4. Miami.



5. Bowl game.



Early and late, beware; in the middle, Stoops is all business.



Question: Why is OU always rated so far up despite important holes to fill and a recent history of failing to live up to its ranking?





WG (6 years ago)
They are highly rated because of their tradition and the respect Stoops earned after '00. Frankly, if you look around the top ten or fifteen teams in the nation, most of them have gaps to fill or question marks in certain areas. But I must admit, after the 55-19 b*tch slapping the Sooners took from USC and the loss to Boise last year (and especially when you consider that OU wasn't even in the Boise State game until the fourth quarter...), I'm a bit perplexed myself why the Sooners, with an unknown factor at qb and a philanthropic secondary, are rated above 15th.
JOHN (6 years ago)
The Sooner's are rated high because the WORLD knows about SOONER MAGIC!!!!!
WG (6 years ago)
Really, Picker, you ought to do a better job screening your minions.
Randy (6 years ago)
Any OU fan that discounts Miami needs to remember history. There were only Two College programs that have a winning percentage over OU one is USC and the other is Miami, FL.

They always seem to put it together against OU.
Should we win? yes, but history could bite us.

steve (6 years ago)
i'm pretty sure "JOHN" is joking but there's no telling. the all caps could be indicative of a joker or a REALLY crazy homer. the only way to find out is to see if he's on the sooner scout page...OU should win the miami game, but it'll be close and it'll be low scoring-maybe 17-10.
WG (6 years ago)
Randy, you're dead wrong about only USC and Miami, Fl having winning records against OU. Forget that several teams no longer extand did it back in the days of statehood...Notre Dame is 8-1 against OU, Arizona State 1-0, Northwestern 3-1, Boise State 1-0, Mississippi 1-0 and yes, even Navy is 1-0. And a plethora of other teams stand tied with OU such as Washington, Tennessee, Ohio State, LSU, Arizona, San Diego State... And even Illinois and Indiana are 1-0 against the Sooners.
WG (6 years ago)
Oops...I forgot the biggest blemish on OU's record of all....Texas, who leads the series 57-39. QED
world picker (6 years ago)
It was either watch the college baseball world series, which should be against the law, ping, there goes another wimpy double, or come up with prospective numbers for OU-Miami, OU-Texas.....see what you think.
WG (6 years ago)
I'm going out on a limb here, Picker...if the Sooners can put enough heat on whoever the Canes have back there quarterbacking (a la the Holiday Bowl when OU's d-line kept enough pressure on Oregon to keep the Sooner secondary from embarrassing themselves...) then I'll take Oklahoma by 7 and change. But God help the Crimson and Cream if Venables doesn't have the right guys in the right position and Miami gets hot.
world picker (6 years ago)
Venables couldn't cover a hill of beans.
WG (6 years ago)
Yeah, but the good news is that Venables won't be covering anybody...his players will be trying to do that. Hard to believe that BStoops, defensive guru that he's purported to be, will stand idly by and allow Vestible to turn his secondary into a volleyball game. After seeing the handwringing on the wall, if Stoops doesn't do SOMETHING to improve the situation behind the linebacking corps then he's going to deserve every bit of what he gets this season. Problem is, the fans certainly deserve better.
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Out Pick The Picker

The Picker began entertaining – and infuriating – sports fans in 1993. Each week during football season, he writes about his picks of college and NFL games in his Thursday Sports column. He's never afraid of sharing his opinions about the game and the personalities who play it. Readers have a chance to go against him each season in the Outpick the Picker contest. He welcomes the competition.

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