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Numbers Game
Published: 10/26/2006 2:13 PM
Last Modified: 10/26/2006 2:13 PM

Let's talk some Thursday afternoon numbers.

The obvious goofy number of the week is Nebraska minus a few -- less than a touchdown -- at Oklahoma State.

That's the kind of game where you'd like Nebraska more minus 17 than minus 5.

You know who's bad?

Georgia is bad. Colorado actually scored on Georgia and almost won the game.

Hard to go against Missouri even though it is at Lincoln next week in a much bigger game.

OU's drippy vanilla offense is a bad risk on the road.

Outside of a very game quarterback, the Aggies stink and Baylor could win outright, needing this badly for a bowl.

South Carolina and more than a field goal is hard to overlook versus Tennie.

How in the world can Dallas compete with Nomo Romo at Carolina?

The fishy pro number of the week is Denver two and a half or three over Indy, snow or no.

The football team named Desire has to beat the Raven lunatics.




Reader Comments 11 Total

W.G. Smith (6 years ago)
Good point about the Huskers; I would be more comfortable betting them if they were giving up two and a half touches than the five they're allowing.

This game is screaming for a bet on the woeful Okie Ags.
world picker (6 years ago)
WG: Exactly, it's like Tex-Nebraska last week.

There may be the occasional bad number.

But as a rule, you can't fight them.

As you said, there's a Sucker's Welcome sign on this one.

If there is no way O-State can win the game, it's hard to take five or six.

Jeremy (6 years ago)
Before responding to the Thursday numbers, let me put this redshirt issue to bed. I think the decision to play Brown, or true freshman OL Trent Williams, or any other true freshman can't be totally judged until the season is over.

I agree 100% that the NU-OSU line is fishy. If I were playing my own $$$ (which I haven't done in awhile), this is a game that I pass on. It would seem obvious that NU deserves to be more than a 5 point favorite. Tis a trap. Home dogs can be appealing, but only if they have a pulse. I flipped a coin and took the Huskers. It's one of only 4 picks that we differ on this week Mr. Picker.

When Vegas sets a line that would seem to go with the general public, then value can be found on the other side. But, when Vegas sets a number that is obviously out of whack in the public eye (like NU -5 over OSU), I tend to stay away.

The picker and I only differ on ONE pro game! Amazing. I took Minnie over the Pats.

The pro game I liked best was KC -1 over a Hasselbeckless Seattle. That was until I heard 610 sports in KC report this evening that Brodie Croyle took all the snaps in practice today due to Huard (sp?) being injured. Scary. Seneca Wallace vs Brodie Croyle. Toss up. With the KC QB situation, Carolina is now my top pro pick of the week.

I think Baylor scares the maroon out of the Aggies, if they don't win outright. Tech seems like a good pick in Lubbock on the surface, but my gut tells me NU woke Texas up last week and the Red Raiders will feel the pain.

Mark (6 years ago)
Thanks Jeremy, I am in a survivor pool, where I pick one winner a week, and can never use a team again. I was set to pick KC, but will go Carolina instead. (the pick is straight up, no spread)
Jeremy (6 years ago)
Good luck Mark. They didn't say that Damon Huard was out for the game, but that he did not practice today.

In any case, you gotta like the Panthers at home versus a Dallas team starting Romo.

Have you used the Steelers yet? I think they win big out at Oakland...even if Batch starts.

Mark (6 years ago)
I look at that game as well, picking against Oakland and Arizona ae always an option
world picker (6 years ago)
People: Doesn't New Orleans have to beat the Raven lunatics?
Jeremy (6 years ago)
I think the Saints cover. It just not as strong a pick for me as Carolina or Pittsburgh, or KC with a healthy #2 QB as opposed to a #3 QB.

The Raven defense has a certain LB that the ability to take control of a game. It's not likely, but if the Raven offense has an efficient game, then they can upset the Saints. Personally, I think the Saints are the biggest surprise of the NFL. Shows what a good QB can do for you, along with a rookie that everyone is expecting to take his next touch to the house.

Rand (6 years ago)
Wow! All that talk about Vegas and the smart money sure looks foolish after OSU beat the line by 17 and OU beat it by 18. Uh-huh. Sure can't call 'em better than the smart Vegas boys can.
Jeremy (6 years ago)
Rand, you are missing the point. First of all, Vegas doesn't give a rats a$$ which team wins in most cases. It wants 50% of the money on each team, so that the losers' 10% juice is profit.

The picker and I were arguing the fact that since the line was "only" NU -5, that it seemed as if Vegas wanted the public on NU's side...so the "smart" money was indeed on the Pokes.

Rand (6 years ago)
Jeremy: Exactly! "Vegas" doesn't care who wins. If a bookie thought he could predict who would win, he'd be a bettor instead. I just laugh every time I read something about the "smart money," because 99% of the time it's tied to the notion that bookies "know" who's going to win and by how much.
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Out Pick The Picker

The Picker began entertaining – and infuriating – sports fans in 1993. Each week during football season, he writes about his picks of college and NFL games in his Thursday Sports column. He's never afraid of sharing his opinions about the game and the personalities who play it. Readers have a chance to go against him each season in the Outpick the Picker contest. He welcomes the competition.

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