Your 2007 Heisman winner is (or should be...)
Published: 12/4/2007 12:14 AM
Last Modified: 12/4/2007 12:14 AM
I didn't think it was possible. But I watched, I waited and I worked the numbers, and I have come up with a Heisman Trophy ballot that won't make me lose a wink of sleep.
Once again, I feel honored to be a voter. It's my seventh year on the in the electorate. I take that honor very seriously. The Heisman Trophy, called meaningless by the most cynical among us, is to me still a semi-sacred thing. (Ohio State fans might recall my refusal to honor Troy Smith last year because he once accepted cash from a booster.)
So naturally, I put it off as long as I could. Ballots are due tomorrow. Procrastinate? No, I just didn't want to be hasty. And as long as I can remember, I have refused to follow crowds. Sorry, ESPN and Sports Illustrated, I'll make up my own mind, thanks.
That said, the two most outstanding college football players in America are, alphabetically, Arkansas running back Darren McFadden and Florida quarterback Tim Tebow.
The Heisman Trophy Trust requests that its voters keep their ballots confidential. I will, of course, honor that. I won't feel I've wasted my vote in the slightest if either guy wins. They're both phenomenally good. All-time good. The really hard part was deciding who should get my third-place vote.
Here's a quick look at how I finally came to my decision:
* I wanted to cast my third-place vote for Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. As the World's beat writer covering the Sooners, I am all but certain that no college football player has had a more sudden impact on their team's success than Bradford. From nowhere, from a preseason battle for the position, Bradford leads the nation in passing efficiency, ranks fourth in TD throws and ranks fourth in yards per attempt.
But when I vote for the Heisman, one of my most important criteria is the competition against which the given player cast his lot. In 13 games, Bradford's staggeringly good numbers came against the world's worst pass defenses. Texas Tech ranks 17th nationally. Miami is 38th. And nobody on the rest of the Sooners' schedule – not one team – ranks better than 89th. Eight of OU's opponents rank 100th or worse. No thanks.
* I wanted to cast my third-place vote for Tulsa quarterback Paul Smith. What a dynamic player. But Smith's amazing year, consistently spectacular, is set back by the same criteria I used for Bradford: against whom did he do it?
Army's pass defense ranks 16th nationally. BYU's is 41st. Houston's is 53rd. The rest of Tulsa's schedule ranks 65th or worse. Four rank 113 or lower. Next.
* I wanted to cast my third-place vote for Central Florida's Kevin Smith. His numbers are crazy. He's gone over 120 yards in 12 of 13 games. With 2,448 rushing yards and 29 TDs, he's clearly one of America's best backs. But let's go to the numbers.
Smith went for 149 yards against Texas, the nation's 10th-best run defense. South Florida and its 19th-ranked run defense held Smith to 55 yards. But guess what? Nine of UCF's other 11 opponents rank 90th or worse in stopping the run. Five are 100th or lower. So that's where all those huge numbers come from.
* I never really wanted to vote for Hawaii QB Colt Brennan because, once Andre Ware and David Klingler ran their course, I had it in my mind that no quarterback from a pass-it-every-down offense should be up for major awards. It's apples and oranges. But he's gotten enough publicity that I think my decision to bypass him deserves explanation.
Brennan (who also missed parts of two games with injury), is a nice passer who has some nice weapons. His numbers are terrific (yet not even close to those of Texas Tech's Graham Harrell). Give it up to Brennan for going 12-0. Good job. But he suffers from the same problem as Bradford and Paul Smith: no competition. Only two pass defenses Hawaii faced ranked better than 59th. Five ranked 89th or lower. And, sorry, but Brennan has 14 interceptions. That's too high, even for someone who chucks it every play.
* I wanted to send third place to Texas Tech wideout Michael Crabtree. What a stud. He strafed everyone he faced all season, regardless of competition. He led the nation in catches (125) and yards (1,865) and scored 21 touchdowns. Some years, he'd be a strong candidate for a first-place vote.
But a few problems: After a nuclear start, Crabtree scored just four touchdowns over his final six games. And, although he's a legit talent, his numbers, too, are as much a product of the system. Systems shouldn't win Heismans. And oh, those Big 12 pass defenses.
* I also thought about giving vote number three to Missouri QB Chase Daniel. I like this guy. He's a chunky Doug Flutie. No fear, good feet, nice arm. But I couldn't do it.
Daniel faced 10 defenses (and a I-AA) that ranked 55th or worse against the pass. Four were 90th or below. And the two times this season I saw Daniel in person – against No. 68 Oklahoma – he was a step above ordinary. As good as Daniel is on the move, he couldn't make a play against the Sooner pass rush. He didn't hurt OU either time.
* Others who I weighed: West Virginia QB Pat White (Pittsburgh?), Rutgers RB Ray Rice (too many losses), Michigan RB Mike Hart (only nine games played, four losses), Ohio State RB Beanie Wells (he nearly got it, actually, but not quite enough consistency), Boston College QB Matt Ryan (18 interceptions), Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter (two late losses hurt), Kansas State WR Jordy Nelson (way too many losses), and South Florida DE George Selvie and OU LB Curtis Lofton (sorry, defensive players are just too hard to measure).
* So, I crunched some more numbers and came up with a guy I believe is college football's third-most outstanding player (I don't think the Heisman Trust would mind too much revealing my third-place vote): Missouri's Jeremy Maclin.
Against virtually the same level of competition, Maclin in some ways blows away Crabtree. You want yardage? Maclin had 1,023 yards receiving, 1,039 on kick returns, 349 rushing and 302 on punt returns. And, apparently, he can throw a little (he tossed a game-tying 2-pointer against OU on Saturday). Maclin ranks second in the country in all-purpose yards, 208.7. He has 16 TDs. And in the two games I watched him in person, against a stout OU defense, he had 204 and 189 total yards, and scored two touchdowns.
And, you ask, who got my first- and second-place votes? Without violating the confidentiality of the Heisman Trust, I'll put it, alphabetically, this way:
* McFadden is a thrilling player. Passes, runs, returns kicks, catches, takes direct snaps – he's impressive in every way. He's the game's best runner. His passing skills can devastate a defense like a bolt of lightning, but, they're just as infrequent. So let's stick to his running.
McFadden put 206 yards and three TDs on LSU's No. 14-ranked run defense. He gave 191 and two to Alabama's 34th-ranked run defense. Auburn, ranked No. 27, held him to 43 yards rushing. The rest of Arkansas' schedule, though, featured run defenses that rank 65th, 68th, 92nd, 94th, 102nd, 105th, 109th and 115th. There was also a I-AA defense. Hmm.
* Tebow is one of a kind. A throwback, but yet a quarterback for the next generation. He became the first player in NCAA history with 20 rushing and 20 passing TDs. His 22 rushing TDs ranks third in the country. His 29 passing TDs ranks ninth. His total of 51 ranks second (behind TU's Paul Smith). I've heard the following: "Well, he's a one-man team. He's basically the Gators' short-yardage fullback. He doesn't deserve the Heisman." Huh? Since when do one-man teams not deserve the Heisman? He completes 70 percent of his passes and yet leads the nation in yards per attempt. How is that even possible?
And, lastly, let's look at Tebow's competition. He burned Tennessee, the 84th-ranked pass defense in the nation, for 299 passing yards. He stung No. 55 Mississippi for 261 and two TDs. And No. 74 Florida International and No. 73 Florida State gave up 338 and 262 yards, respectively, and three TDs apiece. The rest of Florida's schedule (with a I-AA in there), included pass defenses that ranked 5th, 6th, 9th, 11th, 18th, 21st and 24th. That's good toast.
Decide for yourself.
– John E. Hoover
Written by
Guerin Emig
Sports Writer
