Tulsa World: Upbeat report issued

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Upbeat report issued
Study predicts economic growth for Tulsa

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, May 2008

By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer
Published: 10/18/2008 2:09 AM
Last Modified: 10/18/2008 2:51 AM

Study predicts economic growth for Tulsa

Tulsa's economy has performed well this year and will continue to do better than the national economy in 2009, according to a local study.

Copies of the "Tulsa Economic Snapshot" have been sent to members of the Tulsa Metro Chamber. The report, compiled by Bob Ball, the chamber's economic research manager, looks at the performance of various parts of the area's economy, including personal income, retail sales and nonfarm employment.

"Tulsa's optimism and economic diversity is the silver lining in our current economy. Tulsa still remains below the national average in unemployment, while reporting net new job growth," says Mike Neal, the chamber's president and CEO, in a letter that accompanies the study.

"In the Tulsa metro area, small business is an economic driving force for our region, and the chamber continues to involve more business people and provide more opportunities to help small business grow," Neal adds.

Income and home prices have grown steadily since 2004, the report states. Metro area total personal income adjusted for inflation is expected to rise 1.9 percent next year compared with flat growth for the United States, it says. Per-capita personal income should grow 1.0 percent in 2009.

The Tulsa area has avoided the housing price bubble that has impacted other parts of the country, the report states. The average selling price for a single-family home here was $157,667 during the first eight months of 2008 —

up 2.8 percent over the same period a year earlier, it says. Tulsa-area home prices are expected to rise between 2 percent and 3 percent next year.

High growth in retail sales is reflective of high income in the region, the report states. Tulsa-area taxable retail sales should grow by 6 percent this year and 5 percent next year.

August's employment of 425,700 people was down from the October 2007 peak of 429,900. The August job count, however, is 38,500 higher than the low of 387,200 jobs the area had in January 2004.

This year's average employment number through August is down 1 percent from a year earlier, the report states.

Stagnant job growth in the first eight months of the year relative to 2007 appears inconsistent with the area's low unemployment rate and job growth in key sectors, the report says.

Tulsa's unemployment rate has ranged from 2.9 percent in April to 4.2 percent in June, reflecting "more than full employment."

Non-farm employment is expected to grow 0.6 percent this year and 1.6 percent next year, the report says. Those numbers, which are based on an economic outlook prepared by an Oklahoma State University economist, could be revised upward.

While economic conditions are bad in many parts of the country, Tulsa is faring better, Ball said.

"We know that things could weaken and growth could diminish," he said, "but we still think that we're going to perform better than the U.S. economy into 2009."

Laurie Winslow 581-8466
laurie.winslow@tulsaworld.com By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer

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