Tulsa World: Jobs loss data doubted

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Despite data, economist sees job growth in Tulsa

By JOHN STANCAVAGE World Business Editor
Published: 12/4/2008 2:30 AM
Last Modified: 12/4/2008 4:43 AM

Tulsa's economic outlook actually may be rosier than current numbers indicate, a state economist says.

Mark Snead of Oklahoma State University says that while the official forecast for Tulsa is a 0.2 percent decrease in jobs in 2009, it actually could turn out to be a gain of 0.2 percent.

In March 2007, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began reporting a significant change in arts, education and hospitality jobs. In the next revision, last March, the numbers got even worse.

The result, as far as the 2009 forecast, is a 5 percent drop for that sector,

In addition, the BLS measurements indicate that Tulsa did not add many oil and gas jobs in the first three quarters of this year, which Snead said also has to be wrong.

"We think there are errors in the data for both of these sectors," Snead said. "Tulsa's job growth probably is stronger by a large measure."

If the situation is fixed, Tulsa could have a gain next year that would be equivalent to the 0.2 percent growth expected in Oklahoma City, he said.

The Oklahoma City growth number appears to be accurate and not affected by a data error, Snead said.

"I think the explanation for all this is that the data agencies are trying to get information out faster — even if it means more and larger revisions down the road," the economist said.

John Stancavage 581-8314
john.stancavage@tulsaworld.com By JOHN STANCAVAGE World Business Editor

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