Tulsa World: Middle America's outlook is hopeful

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Middle America's outlook is hopeful
The OCU poll shows families more upbeat on economy than in 2008.

By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer
Published: 11/17/2009 2:24 AM
Last Modified: 11/17/2009 8:28 AM

Consumer confidence and expectations among people living in Middle America, which includes Oklahoma, are better than they were a year ago, according to a poll conducted recently through the Meinders School of Business at Oklahoma City University.

The consumer sentiment index for Middle America rose to 69.3 in the poll compared with 64.3 the same time last year, but lagged the 70.6 index recorded for the nation based on a poll released earlier by Reuters/University of Michigan.

For the Middle America Consumer Confidence Poll, a telephone survey was conducted Oct 29 through Nov. 1 of adults living in 16 states. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.

This is the sixth time the poll has been conducted, with the last one being in October 2008. Respondents were asked their opinions on the economic direction of the region, their family's present economic status, expectations and other pertinent current issues.

According to the poll, respondents were more positive when asked whether now is a good time to buy a home or durable goods.

At the same time, however, they were more concerned about employment than they were a year ago, said Steve Agee, a professor of economics and the director of the Economic Research & Policy Institute at the Meinders School of Business.

Overall, he called the results of the survey hopeful.

"The results of this poll to me indicate a more optimistic future when you look at a year from now versus where we've been. So I think we have bottomed out," Agee said.

"I think we are seeing signs of a rebound in the consumers, and the consumers feel that rebound, and so they are more confident than they were last year, certainly."

All three major indexes — for consumer sentiment, current economic conditions and consumer expectations — were higher than they were a year ago for Middle America.

Consumers in Middle America have a more optimistic outlook than rest of the nation with an index of consumer expectations of 69.8 versus 68.6.

The vast majority of consumers think now is a good time to buy a house, 70 percent versus 58 percent a year ago, according to the poll. Agee cited the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and low interest rates as incentives for home buying.

At the same time, the survey found people were more concerned about the possibility of losing their homes. Only 69 percent of those currently paying a mortgage in Middle America said they are "not at all" concerned about losing their home compared with the 77 percent who answered the same way at the height of the national mortgage crisis in 2008.

Middle America consumers also are concerned about employment, but probably less so than in other parts of the country where unemployment rates are higher, Agee noted.

Of those polled, 11 percent had lost their jobs in the last three months versus 7 percent of those polled last year. Likewise, the percentage of those who had seen reduced hours was 10 percent versus 6 percent a year ago.

"That is going to cause people to reduce their discretionary spending," he said.

Agee, who also is the chairman of the Oklahoma City branch board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said he would like to conduct the poll quarterly.

Laurie Winslow 581-8466
laurie.winslow@tulsaworld.com By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer

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	Report Comment SS_Hippy, Tulsa (11/17/2009 7:35:35 AM) hopeful is a good thing
	Report Comment KYCane, Crestwood (11/17/2009 11:25:40 AM) Main Street's always bigger than Wall Street.

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