Tulsa World: Jobless rate hits 7.1 percent

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Jobless rate hits 7.1 percent
Oklahoma's October unemployment figure is the highest in 21 years.

By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer
Published: 11/21/2009 2:19 AM
Last Modified: 11/21/2009 3:49 AM

Oklahoma's unemployment rate hit 7.1 percent in October — the highest in more than 21 years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

October's number topped the revised 6.8 percent jobless rate posted in September. In October 2008, the state's jobless rate was 4.2 percent, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released Friday by the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission.

Oklahoma last had a 7.1 percent unemployment rate in January 1988, based on BLS data.

Lynn Gray, the OESC's chief economist, said he is not surprised by the October number, given that the nation's unemployment rate is 10.2 percent. A year and a half ago he thought there was a "distinct possibility" that the state's jobless rate could reach the low 7 percent range if the U.S. rate were to rise above 10 percent.

"I'm not surprised we got to this point. I was surprised on this particular month to have this type of an increase, when we've seen a decline in some of our continuing claims numbers," he said.

Gray noted that over the last five weeks, the state also has seen a decline in initial unemployment claims.

For the past six weeks, the state's initial unemployment claims have ranged between 3,600 to 3,700 a week. That compares with May, when the state had a four-week moving average of between 4,700 to 4,900 initial claims filed weekly.

In early September, Oklahoma had a four-week moving average of about 4,100 initial claims a week, Gray said.

"But for the past six weeks we were kind of stuck in this range, which is elevated over what we typically would see in a more normal economy, which would be 2,000 claims a week," he said.

Demand for products is low, and until orders increase, businesses will not be hiring, said Steve Agee, professor of economics at Oklahoma City University and chairman of the Oklahoma City branch board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Oklahoma's unemployment rate probably won't go significantly higher, said Robert Dauffenbach, director of the Center for Economic and Management Research at the University of Oklahoma's Price College of Business.

"We don't really know what our unemployment rate is," Dauffenbach said. "It's not measured from the standpoint of how we measure national unemployment, which is a household survey.

"What the BLS tries to do is to model what the expected unemployment rate is, given what has happened nationally. So it's not a survey number, it's a model-based number and to that extent it could overstate or understate what the true unemployment rate is."

The BLS reported that 29 states saw their unemployment rates rise in October, while 13 had lower rates than in September.

Michigan's 15.1 percent rate was the nation's highest. It was followed by Nevada at 13 percent, Rhode Island at 12.9 percent, California at 12.5 percent and South Carolina at 12.1 percent.

Despite Oklahoma's higher rate, the state added 8,800 jobs in October, the fourth-highest number in the country. Monthly gains were seen mostly in professional and business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and other services.

Oklahoma's nonfarm employment has contracted by 43,400 jobs from October 2008, according to the OESC.

The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the size of the labor force. Because of this, it is possible for the rate to rise even as jobs are gained.

"The problems Oklahoma faces are not the same as the problems faced by the national economy, but we have to recognize we are a more diversified economy as a consequence of the travails we suffered in the '80s with the collapse of energy markets," Dauffenbach said. "Being a more diversified economy, we are more subject to the slings and arrows of the national economy."

October unemployment rates for the state's metro areas are scheduled to be released in December.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Laurie Winslow 581-8466
laurie.winslow@tulsaworld.com By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer

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Some reader comments for this story were copied from "Oklahoma unemployment rises in October," which was published on 11/20/2009.

	Report Comment High Jack, (11/20/2009 11:21:17 AM) Where is the quote from some tenured professor stating this should be the peak unemployment rate?
	Report Comment Thunder196, Tulsa (11/20/2009 11:36:05 AM) I always cringe when someone uses the quote. "Things are going to get better", just irritates me to no end. They are such all knowing and wise twerps.
	Report Comment forkandknife, Tulsa (11/20/2009 11:37:24 AM) Glad to hear it. Let's get this number higher though, and I will be even more excited!
	Report Comment ExTulsan, (11/20/2009 12:29:59 PM) Why a season adjustment? If you are comparing a month of 1 year to the same month of another year, no adjustment is necessary. My suspecion is that season adjustment is the governments fudge factor to under report the true unemployment rate.
	Report Comment nosey, Tulsa (11/20/2009 2:05:24 PM) only 7.1.... Most of my peers moved out of state for jobs.
	Report Comment WilliamTheArtist, (11/21/2009 9:06:36 AM) End results are what matter. In many European countries and some in Asia,,, they spend half as much on healthcare, AND the outcomes are better, (aka, less men, women and children are dying and sickly than here). Ooooh that evil "socialist" medicine. So much better to spend more and have more people dying and suffering. I am very wary of Obamas healthcare plans because it seems to me that they are trying to find some messy compromise position that in the end will not work as well.
	Report Comment Few Clothes, America (11/21/2009 2:06:46 PM) B.Hussein really sold the Libs a load of cow patties in order to get their vote. Imbeciles!
	Report Comment Aggie, (11/22/2009 3:48:59 PM) It is false that health outcomes are better in other countries. The numbers are rigged by the World Health Organization to make government care look good. European countries don't include babies who live less than 24 hours in their infant death statistics. If you want to see some horror stories, just do an internet search on "problems with nationalized health care". People often die waiting for treatment or are denied treatment altogether. Some UK hospitals don't change the bed sheets between patients to save $. Canadians wait a couple of years for hip replacement surgeries. If people want socialized medicine, let them go live where it's available. I doubt they will stay. Don't force it on the rest of us.
	Report Comment dork74, Broken Arrow (11/23/2009 5:39:28 PM) What does unemployment in Oklahoma have to do with the health care debate?
	Report Comment Ron Ballew, Lawton (11/23/2009 11:03:18 PM) "We don't really know what our unemployment rate is," Dauffenbach said. "It's not measured from the standpoint of how we measure national unemployment, which is a household survey. Great, so all these economic indicaters are just guesses in an unsure world.

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