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McCain favored in the fall
By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer
Published:
12/26/2007 1:18 AM
Last Modified: 12/27/2007 2:19 AM
Correction
An explanation of the Oklahoma Poll in this story listed the wrong numbers for Republicans and Democrats who were asked their preferences in the Feb. 5 presidential primary. Republicans totaled 330, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.39 percentage points. Democrats totaled 358, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.18 percentage points. Also, 735 registered voters who said they plan to vote in the Nov. 4 general election were asked whom they prefer in the U.S. Senate race. The margin of error on the U.S. Senate question was plus or minus 3.61 percentage points. In all, 745 registered voters took the survey, including 338 Republicans, 380 Democrats, 26 independents and one Libertarian. All Oklahoma Poll results listed in Wednesday’s paper were correct.
But Clinton and Huckabee are the first choices of Oklahoma voters in the party primaries.
Frontrunners for Oklahoma's Feb. 5 presidential primary may not be the best choices for carrying the state in November's general election, the latest Oklahoma Poll suggests.
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York was the first choice of Democrats surveyed and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee led Republicans.
But Republican U.S. Sen. John McCain was the only candidate from either party viewed favorably by a majority of all those surveyed and was the only GOP candidate to decisively defeat the top three Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups.
Among Democrats polled, former North Carolina U.S. Sen. John Edwards came in a distant second to Clinton but he had the highest favorable rating among all voters -- 44 percent. Edwards won head-to-head matchups with Republicans Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, and he came within 3 percentage points of Huckabee.
Conducted Dec. 16-19 by Sooner Poll.com for the Tulsa World and KOTV, channel 6, the poll surveyed 745 likely voters.
Poll consultant Al Soltow, vice president for research at the University of Tulsa, said the results suggest Oklahomans are not particularly fond of any of the candidates.
"There's no candidate that blows away the voters," Soltow said.
Clinton was the choice of 34 percent of Democrats surveyed, followed by Edwards at 25 percent and Barack Obama at 15 percent.
"What I'm looking for is somebody who could get in there and know how to be president," said Adrienne Humphrey, who took part in the poll. "She is by far the most likely to do that because she has the experience."
Clinton lost head-to-head matchups against McCain (61-31), Huckabee (56-35), Romney (51-30) and Giuliani (50-38). And Clinton was viewed unfavorably by 61 percent of those surveyed.
Edwards, on the other hand, won matchups against Romney (50-37) and Giuliani (48-42) and was within the margin of error against Huckabee (47-44).
McCain beat Edwards by 11 percentage points, Clinton by 30 and Obama by 40.
Still, Huckabee led polling of Republicans. Twenty-nine percent said they favored him in the GOP primary, followed by McCain at 17 percent and Giuliani at 12 percent.
Soltow noted that "don't know" was actually second among Republicans and third among Democrats.
Poll respondents Robert Johnson and Leveda Baker are among those undecideds.
"I haven't made up my mind, other than I won't vote Republican," said Johnson. "I'm pretty fed up with the Republicans right now."
Johnson said he thinks this campaign has been too long and too expensive and has not addressed the concerns of the average person.
"They get up there on 'The Hill' and forget where they come from," he said.
Baker, meanwhile, said she is "not a Democrat in any way" and is looking for "a good Christian man" for president.
"And yes, I do mean man," she said.
Baker said she looks favorably on Romney and Giuliani. She is troubled by Romney's Mormanism, though, noting that, like many evangelical Christians, she does not consider it a true form of Christianity.
She said Giuliani's personal foibles, including two divorces, are also a drawback, but added, "The important thing is, he's a changed man now."
Baker is also interested in Huckabee, a Baptist minister.
"I am looking for a man who will listen to God and the Holy Spirit," Baker said. "I believe we are in the end time."
Soltow noted the importance of evangelicals in Oklahoma politics. Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed for the Oklahoma Poll identified themselves as evangelical Christians. Their highest marks went to Huckabee (51 percent approval) and McCain (49 percent), while fully two-thirds disapproved of Clinton and 61 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Obama.
Huckabee was the big winner and Giuliani the big loser since the Oklahoma Poll last asked voters about the presidential candidates.
Huckabee went from less than 3 percent of the vote and an approval rating below 20 percent in April to 29 percent of the vote and a 46 percent approval rating in last week's survey.
Giuliani, meanwhile, went from a 32 percent share of the vote and a 52 percent approval rating -- both tops among Republicans -- to a distant third among voters and 32 percent approval.
In addition, Giuliani's disapproval rating increased 19 points to 58 percent, thus rivaling Clinton's.
McCain, Edwards and Edwards enjoyed small improvements in their ratings, while Obama fell slightly and Clinton and Republican Fred Thompson remained largely unchanged.
Randy Krehbiel 581-8365
randy.krehbiel@tulsaworld.com
Asked of Republicans
Mike Huckabee ...........................29%
John McCain ...............................17%
Rudy Giuliani ..............................11%
Mitt Romney .................................9%
Fred Thompson .............................8%
Ron Paul ......................................3%
Duncan Hunter..............................1%
Don’t Know/Refused ...................22%
Asked of Democrats
Hillary Clinton ............................34%
John Edwards .............................25%
Barack Obama ............................15%
Bill Richardson .............................4%
Chris Dodd....................................1%
Dennis Kucinich ............................1%
Don’t Know/Refused ....................20%
About the Oklahoma Poll
Soonerpoll.com conducted the scientific telephone survey Dec. 13 to 16 of 745 voters registered in Oklahoma.
Respondents included 338 Republicans, 380 Democrats, 26 independents and one Libertarian selected randomly from voters who have established a frequent voting pattern.
The margin of error is plus or minus 3.59 percent.
For questions asked of Republicans only, the error margin is plus or minus 5.33 percent. For questions asked of Democrats only, the error margin is plus or minus 5.03 percent.
The Oklahoma Poll is sponsored by the Tulsa World and KOTV, channel 6.
By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer
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The Oracle
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 5:21:20 AM)
Let us not forget that McCain was involved with the "Keating Five",and barely escaped with his political life,and should have been prosecuted.
Report Comment
Tony G
, (12/26/2007 6:34:32 AM)
I have much respect for John McCain but since he endorses this unjustified war, I cannot vote for him.
My choice is John Edwards or Ron Paul
Report Comment
Lori
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 7:13:12 AM)
I will vote for Hillary. I couldn't vote for Obama. If he doesn't respect the flag he doesn't respect the soldiers fighting for it.
Report Comment
mj
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 9:02:09 AM)
"Welcome all invaders" should be the slogan for ALL aforementioned candidates. All the Dems are completely for open-borders & few of the Repubs are much better. I just hope that people take the time to educate these candidates for their true agendas; otherwise, the USA is doomed to become a 3rd world crap-hole from which the hoards are coming . AYE, CARUMBA !
Report Comment
Mike
, Sand Springs (12/26/2007 9:26:46 AM)
Oh, yes, ALL of the Democrats are for completely open borders. And they hate the troops. And they hate America. And they have pathetic "pre 9-11 thinking". And they're for free abortions on every street corner. Please insert the rest of the obnoxious half-baked talking points here.
Report Comment
Your Mom
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 9:31:05 AM)
Who were the 745 likely voters? From voters "who have established a frequent voting pattern"? If this is how Oklahomans will vote, I have little hope for this dying country. Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich are the only choices for a free US. Anyone hear about The Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act? Most Americans have not....sad indeed.
Report Comment
Your Mom
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 9:43:50 AM)
If you think Huckabee is a good "Christian" candidate, please watch the youtube video called, "PROOF Mike Huckabee is BOUGHT and PAID for! "
Report Comment
mj
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 9:45:53 AM)
#5 - Mike - Well, at least you got the 1st point correct....indeed, ALL the Dems ARE for open borders.
Report Comment
doc
, tulsa (12/26/2007 10:03:52 AM)
Give President Channy a third term,OK. He will fix everything.
Report Comment
Chris
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 10:09:17 AM)
The fact that "Don't Know" was choices two and three respectively for each party makes this poll completely insignificant.
Report Comment
Tirrell
, OKC (12/26/2007 10:48:35 AM)
During the past several months, UTW has periodically reported on plans among some Washington elites to bring about a "North American Community" in which the United States, Canada and Mexico would be integrated into a single entity modeled after the European Union. The body would share infrastructure, common regulating agencies and laws, and no actual borders would exist between the three nations. This is great news
Report Comment
Steve
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 11:17:33 AM)
real smart there TW and Channel 6. Take a poll when 1/3 the state is without power and phone service. This poll is bogus.
Report Comment
Scott
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 11:22:14 AM)
Wait, this was a scientific poll? I might trust Gallup to put out a "scientific" poll, but even Gallup can be flawed. Tulsa World, I just polled a few people in my own scientific poll and 50% are voting for Ron Paul, 25% are voting for Dennis Kucinich, and the other 25% are undecided. Granted, the sampling error is likely ~100% and the bias is ~100%, but why not publish this poll as well? It's just about as helpful to your readers as a "soonerpolls" poll. Yes, I'm complaining because I don't agree with the results, but my point remains.
Report Comment
mj
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 11:49:26 AM)
Latest AMNESTY Ratings For Presidential Candidates (21DEC07)NUMBERSUSA
Excellent
DUNCAN HUNTER
FRED THOMPSON
They are EXCELLENT in pledging through website and speech to oppose amnesties of all kinds for illegal aliens ... advocating Attrition Through Enforcement to cause present 12-20 million illegals to go home over time
Good
RON PAUL
Does a good job of opposing amnesties of all kinds for illegal aliens
Fair
MITT ROMNEY
Does a fair job in pledging through website & speech to oppose amnesty ... public statements create uncertainty about t! otal opposition and about what eventually happens to the illegal aliens now here
Poor
MIKE HUCKABEE
Does a poor job of pledging clear opposition to amnesty for illegal aliens ... public statements sound like at least a portion will eventually get legalization
Bad
RUDY GIULIANI
JOHN McCAIN
While saying that enforcement measures must come first, they would allow most or large numbers of illegal aliens now here to remain and legalize their status
Abysmal
HILARY CLINTON
BARACK OBAMA
JOHN EDWARDS
BILL RICHARDSON
JOE BIDEN
CHRIS DODD
DENNIS KUCINICH
They assertively advocate for the lega! lization of most or all illegal aliens now here ... do not even require that tough enforcement measures against future illegal immigration be in place first
Report Comment
Tirrell
, OKC (12/26/2007 12:07:01 PM)
This is for number 14, thanks for the info, I'll be votting for Hilary Clinton.
Report Comment
hd
, tulsa (12/26/2007 12:28:18 PM)
To the Ron Paul supporters, could you please get some paint remover and go through Tulsa and clean the spray painted graffiti proclaiming Ron Paul '08. You are a bunch of trailer park trash.
Report Comment
mj
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 12:53:11 PM)
#15- T - I'll be praying for your recovery, Senor.
Report Comment
getreal
, tulsa (12/26/2007 1:33:51 PM)
Thank you #16. I saw the person's wall at 31st & Peoria spray painted with Ron Paul '08. What disrespect for a person's property. I would never vote for someone with criminal supporters such as this.
Report Comment
Cameron Davis
, Memphis (12/26/2007 1:40:29 PM)
It is ridiculous that you did not include RON PAUL in your poll.
He has more support and more money than any other GOP candidate. He is going to win, and you won't even put him in your poll. How incredibly biased you are.
Report Comment
Bobby
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 1:43:46 PM)
Political polling should be illegal. These polls influence the outcomes of elections. We should be able to vote in good faith, without the media telling us who the winner is going to be. The polls are only beneficial to the politicians and media outlets who are trying to sway elections. When voters have been told their favorite candidate has no chance of winning, what percentage of voters will change candidates or skip voting altogether? What is the point of having an election if we already know the outcome?
Report Comment
tommy
, tulsa (12/26/2007 1:48:22 PM)
Great #19. maybe you could come and repaint my neighbors wall!
Report Comment
Scott
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 2:01:43 PM)
@19 Ron Paul was included in the poll.
Report Comment
Ray Smith
, Tulsa (12/26/2007 2:22:31 PM)
Who are these pollsters calling? None of the people I know have been called by them. I know a lot of people and of those who stay well informed and have at least a modicum of intelligence, 80% - 90% are for Ron Paul, the only candidate who isn't in bed with the big-money global elitists and lobbying groups. Since its common knowledge that the media is in bed with all those groups (ever heard the term media whores?) its no wonder that they don't like Ron Paul and are ignoring him or putting out lies and attempting to marginalize his candidacy. As far as I'm concerned, its Ron Paul all the way ............
Report Comment
tommy
, tulsa (12/26/2007 2:24:31 PM)
#23 great! Maybe Ron could come with you to clean up the graffiti.
Report Comment
Tirrell
, OKC (12/26/2007 2:26:25 PM)
Ray Smith, Dream on.
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