Tulsa World: September jobless rate holds steady

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September jobless rate holds steady
Economists say it's too early to know if the area's rate has peaked.

By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer
Published: 10/29/2009 2:25 AM
Last Modified: 10/29/2009 3:42 PM

Correction: This story originally contained incorrect information about the potential causes for falling and rising jobless rates. The story has been corrected.

The Tulsa metro area's unemployment rate held steady in September at 7.0 percent, following revisions in the data from the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission.

But economists say it's too early to know if the area's rate has peaked.

Initially, the OESC had reported the Tulsa area's rate to be 7.1 percent in August, but revisions placed that figure at 7.0 percent instead.

A year ago the rate was 3.8 percent.

Tulsa County's jobless rate held steady at 6.8 percent for the month.

"I think it's a little early to say we've topped out," said Bob Ball, economic research manager for the Tulsa Metro Chamber.

The metro area's unemployment rate, which is not seasonally adjusted, could still rise a little more, Ball said. The economist said he wouldn't be surprised if that happened, but predicted the rate would not exceed 7.2 percent.

The unemployment rate can fall when people give up and quit the labor force, and it can rise when people enter the labor force because they expect to find work, Ball explained. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the size of the labor force.

Overall, this is "not a bad report for Tulsa," said Lynn Gray, the OESC's chief economist.

"This is about what I would have expected for the Tulsa and Oklahoma City MSAs simply because they are such a large portion of the state," Gray said Wednesday.

Oklahoma's rate dipped to 6.7 percent last month from 6.8 percent in August.

"I was surprised when the state numbers came out, but I wasn't at this point for Tulsa because it (the local rate) will follow along pretty closely at the state level," Gray said.

The OESC analyst said initial unemployment claims are declining.

"We're seeing that across the state, so that is going to be very good news in terms of getting the unemployment rates lower," Gray said. "It's possible that we have topped out. It could go a little bit higher, but we've got a nice downward trend on initial claims. So, I think if we're not at a top we should be pretty close to it, both for the state as a whole and the MSAs."

Congress is considering legislation to extend unemployment benefits 14 weeks in all states and an additional six weeks in states with the highest unemployment rates.

Last month, the U.S. jobless rate reached 9.8 percent.

More than 5.4 million Americans have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks, according to the Labor Department. About 1.9 million Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits by the end of this year unless Congress acts.

The Tulsa area's nonfarm employment grew by 1,000 jobs in September and totaled 425,500. That figure represented a loss of 9,900 jobs from the same time a year ago, according to the OESC.

Among individual sectors, manufacturing for the area was down 700 jobs over the month and 6,400 jobs over the year.

Government in the Tulsa area grew by 3,000 jobs last month. Ball attributed much of that to stimulus money and administrative costs being incurred to make sure programs are in place.

Employment services rose 200 jobs over the month.

"We do need to kind of watch those employment services employment numbers. Those temp employment numbers are really a good indicator of what is to come in terms of permanent employment," Ball said.

Debbie Rowland, owner of the The Rowland Group of Staffing Cos. in Tulsa, noted that unemployment in speciality disciplines such as accounting and finances, information technology and engineering is much lower at 2 percent to 3 percent.

"Things are very much picking up. There is still a very high demand and a low supply of certain types of individuals that we're placing," she said.

Among the state's other metro areas, Oklahoma City saw its rate dip to 5.9 percent last month, while Lawton's dipped to 5.1 percent.

Bloomberg News contributed to this report.

Laurie Winslow 581-8466
laurie.winslow@tulsaworld.com By LAURIE WINSLOW World Staff Writer

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	Report Comment Daven, Tulsa (10/29/2009 8:16:17 AM) My new appliances that I bought IN Tulsa at a locally owned store are being delivered today! yay! Its my way of supporting the Tulsa economy! Shop Tulsa!!
	Report Comment aint missbehavin, .. (10/29/2009 7:12:03 AM) Are these the same economist that miscounted.Counting more jobs by adding a few to the one,by adding part time to the full time.If ya want to know how the job rate is in Mexico,Id say not as bad as here.Because,our factories are there and not here.
	Report Comment aint missbehavin, .. (10/29/2009 7:12:24 AM) Get a calculator next time.
	Report Comment CrippledShark, San Antonio (10/29/2009 11:15:41 AM) Folks, These numbers are misleading and even the article mentioned that some numbers had to be recalculated. How many people are dropping off the unemployment rolls because they have exhausted their unemployment benefits? This is all spin control as the city, state and feds don't want you to know that the real number is hovering somewhere around 9%. Government payroll increased by 3,000 over last year due to stimulus? Why is the city of Tulsa laying off? Where are those 3,000 jobs and who was hired? Check the payroll of OU or OSU staff and see what their employees get paid and compare that to the Joe the Plumber. I'm not saying that the sky is falling. I'm simply saying that we are being fed a big dose of castor oil and told it is chocolate. CS
	Report Comment Corvetteguy, Tulsa (10/29/2009 9:16:57 PM) Unfortunately, we have to add some Tulsa Police Officers to the unemployed listing.
	Report Comment snowwhite04, (10/29/2009 11:05:59 AM) the lewiston apartments don't support locals, people are evicted and yelled at. while there are others who are allowed to cook dope , break doors , be drunk and disordely , streal and vandalize, they pick on someone with social security disabililty. they could care less about there community they have known gang members living here
	Report Comment DaBirdman, (10/29/2009 5:09:21 AM) C'mon Tulsa, let's get around this slump. I know a vey good salesman that needs a job to support his family!
	Report Comment Greg19670, (10/29/2009 7:17:36 PM) Looks like things are finally hitting Tulsa. But I doubt it will get worse. This is a very self sufficient state.
	Report Comment skippy1, Tulsa (10/29/2009 4:47:08 PM) CSW- exactly right, but Iv'e tried to figure out a different way to determine the actual number of people that are unemployed and there's simply no other way. What I think should happen is an adjustment for each state using a 'mean' number from all states. And what is congress waiting for, people's benefits are running out and they sit on their hands.

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