Correction
This story originally reported an incorrect party breakdown for the state Senate. The story has been corrected.
The 2010 election season that begins Tuesday will largely reshape Oklahoma politics for the next decade.
That's because the Legislature elected this year will be redrawing the state's legislative districts, based on the 2010 Census. And, for the first time in state history, the legislative leadership redrawing those districts will almost certainly be Republican.
And it could be Republican for a long time.
Despite having 177,000 fewer registered voters, Republicans outnumber Democrats 62-39 in the state House of Representatives and 26-22 in the state Senate – and most of the trends are in the GOP's direction.
A review of voter registration figures show the GOP with a net gain on Democrats of 65,000 voters from July 2006 to July 2010, with the heaviest concentrations of Republicans in growing legislative districts likely to be split by the coming reapportionment.
Democratic districts, on the other hand, tend to have fewer voters, either because of population loss or the influx of residents who don't or can't register to vote. Democratic voting rolls have dropped by nearly 22,000 since 2006.
Even more startling, they've declined by nearly 27,000 since a small uptick in 2008.
"Democrats missed a whole generation," said University of Oklahoma political science professor Keith Gaddie. "Candidates who would have run as Democrats in the '60s and '70s are now running as Republicans and winning."
District apportionment is based on population – in this case, the 2010 Census – not voter registration. But the registration figures are suggestive.
The 15 largest House districts by voter registration, and 21 of the largest 22, have more Republicans than Democrats. The nine largest Senate districts, and 14 of the largest 16, have more Republicans.
At the other end of the scale, nine of the 10 smallest House districts and the eight smallest Senate districts are predominantly Democrat.
Most of the growing districts are in Tulsa and Oklahoma City suburbs, while most of the smaller ones are in south Oklahoma City, north Tulsa and rural Oklahoma.
Gaddie, a consultant on redistricting for Florida and Illinois, said he thinks it likely that spidery rural districts, especially in western Oklahoma, are likely to be "cleaned up" in the redistricting process. A few will probably be shifted into the metro areas.
It's possible and even likely that some Democratic-leaning inner city districts will be collapsed and combined to accommodate new Republican-leaning districts in the suburbs.
But Gaddie and Oklahoma State University Professor Emeritus Robert Darcy say the change is not likely to be as dramatic as one might think.
"Those (voter) disparities aren't going away with redistricting," Gaddie said.
The reason is one big wildcard – Hispanics.
A burgeoning Hispanic population is responsible for much of the state's recent growth. Many of those Hispanics live in areas with low voter counts.
Illegal immigrants, which at least some of the newcomers undeniably are, can't register or vote, but even Hispanics who are legal residents tend to shy away from the voting booth.
"I think it will be a big factor (in reapportionment) and think it will be an unexpected one," said Darcy.
The heaviest Hispanic concentration, he points out, is in the Panhandle, a heavily Republican area that otherwise would be losing population – and likely representation.
Gaddie said the same factor could keep central and south Oklahoma City from losing a Senate and a House seat and help preserve five House seats and a Senate seat in north and east Tulsa.
Darcy also thinks the Republican advance is less monolithic than it might appear. Oklahoma has more women than men, he points out, and women tend to vote Democratic.
"There is a big difference between men and women," he said. "If you look at first-time voters in 2008, women predominantly were Democrats, and men were predominantly Republican. There are a lot of things moving in different directions."
Original Print Headline: Election season to reshape Oklahoma politics, districts
Randy Krehbiel 581-8365
randy.krehbiel@tulsaworld.com
