Tulsa World: Officials: Swine flu reports may be overblown

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Officials: Swine flu reports may be overblown

By KIM ARCHER World Staff Writer
Published: 8/28/2009 2:25 AM
Last Modified: 8/28/2009 3:52 AM

U.S. health officials are taking the spread of the new swine flu seriously, but they don't expect up to half the nation to be infected or up to 90,000 deaths — statistics that were reported by much of the nation's media earlier this week.

"Certainly everything we've seen in the U.S. and everything we've seen around the world to date suggests that we won't see that kind of number — if the virus doesn't change," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, during a taping of C-SPAN's Newsmakers program to air Sunday.

A council of independent science advisors wrote a report for the president about U.S. preparations for the swine flu, which the White House released Monday. Many in the media took a "plausible scenario" used for planning purposes and highlighted it, he said.

In the scenario, the report stated that an epidemic could infect up to half the nation's population this fall and winter, hospitalize as many as 1.8 million Americans and kill up to 90,000 people.

Still, the 15-page report emphasized the numbers were a "planning scenario, not a prediction."

"The report, I think, or unfortunately the media coverage of it wasn't nearly as balanced as the report itself," Frieden said.

"The report was very helpful, thorough and an overview of the needs. And what's gotten all the play is one particular scenario that they outlined. And there are various scenarios you can come up with."

He said the report underscored some actions that are already being taken to mitigate the impact of this new strain of flu on the American people.

"Our approach is to say 'Yes, flu is a very serious problem. We're taking very intensive steps to respond to it,' " he said. "And we are working to ensure that as few people get sick and die as possible. What that number will be, only time will tell."

On Tuesday in Atlanta, Dr. Anne Schuchat, head of the CDC's immunization division, said "Having a planning scenario is very helpful. We don't necessarily think that's the most likely scenario."

The reason for heightened concern about the novel swine flu is that most Americans have no immunity to it.

And some people may be more susceptible to severe complications and death from this virus strain, Schuchat said.

But all flu can be serious and health officials remain concerned about the seasonal flu, as well, she said. Some 200,000 people are hospitalized and 36,000 people in the U.S. die each year from seasonal flu.

"We are seeing more disease than we would expect for this time of year, but less than earlier this year," Schuchat said. "We know transmission is going to continue, but there's a lot we can do to limit that."

Avoid seasonal or novel H1N1 flu

Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze

Wash hands frequently with soap and water

Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth

Stay home when sick

Get vaccinated for both

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Kim Archer 581-8315
kim.archer@tulsaworld.com By KIM ARCHER World Staff Writer

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	Report Comment Centrist, close enough (8/28/2009 4:09:38 AM) I don't mind it being overblown...better safe than sorry.
	Report Comment fcol, (8/28/2009 5:57:11 AM) Buried in the article - "if the virus doesn't change" That's really the crux and nobody really knows what to expect this season or next with a novel virus. It may not mutate until more of the population has been exposed to it, creating a need to change or burn out. Or ... it may never mutate. We can only hope. Even if it's the same novel virus this winter, contracting it seems to be a crap shoot. Most experience normal, relatively mild flu symptoms and recover without intervention. But some quickly and unexpectedly develop serious symptoms and require ventilators. Many of the serious and fatal cases have been young, healthy individuals. Many do not have a fever and are not taken seriously due to the lack of a fever. - Pregnant women are more vulnerable than most. - Caution is sensible. - Social distancing when possible. - Store a few necessities to avoid unnecessary exposure and be able to get by if there are burps in the supply system.
	Report Comment Get out of my bidness!, The Republic of the United States of America (8/28/2009 8:02:25 AM) It's the flu. I foresee a lot of that vaccine going down the drain. Not many, especially the apparently more susceptible young, are going in to get a series of three shots to put off the flu which probably won't even make them all that sick. If we only had Obamacare we could make them get vaccinated, forcibly if necessary.
	Report Comment Loophole, (8/28/2009 9:46:31 AM) Ever since they came up with "pandemic" they have just bent over backwards to find a use for the word. The bureaucrats love to divert peoples attention from important issues with unsupported crisis claims. It takes the heat off of the politicians running wild in Washinton.
	Report Comment cheesepoff, That place next to BA (8/28/2009 3:03:37 PM) There are always new strains each year, this is nothing new. A engineered crisis just like bird flu. Influenza kills more people then swine flu each year.
	Report Comment Miss Smart A., (8/28/2009 9:46:48 PM) ARE WE AT TERROR LEVEL YELLOW??!!
	Report Comment noveds, (8/28/2009 11:11:27 PM) I live in Corpus Christi and I had it the last week of May. I don't know for a fact it was Swine, but after attending a festival I felt very weak, with things vacating both ends of my body for the next 2 days. It was no worse than any other flu I've ever had. If your immune system is comprimised or if your preg, you may want to worry. Other than that I feel the media is doing it's usual crisis alert to sell itself.
	Report Comment T.B'Ville, Bartlesville (8/29/2009 8:39:28 AM) It might have been the 3.2 flu on the Texas campus.
	Report Comment oky1, (8/29/2009 1:45:16 PM) from infowars//// A study published in the world’s foremost peer-reviewed medical journal has found that around 50% of Hong Kong’s health workers will refuse to be vaccinated against swine flu for fears over the safety of the shot. Research conducted by the University of Hong Kong and made public by the British Medical Journal consistently found that less than half of 8,500 doctors and nurses in public hospitals would accept vaccination against H1N1 influenza. More ////// It’s great to see not all those in the medical community have gone insane & lost their ability for critical thinking.
	Report Comment oky1, (8/29/2009 1:47:02 PM) ///“Federal authorities plan to initiate a nationwide campaign in the coming weeks to persuade Americans to get the swine flu vaccine and to erase any public skepticism about the flu’s danger and the safety of immunizations.” reports the San Francisco Chronicle. The $16 million federal programme comes as a response to concerns both doctors and the general public have voiced over revelations that H1N1 shots will contain mercury and squalene. It will attempt to allay fears over the links these adjuvants* have to the severe nerve disease Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which killed more people than the actual flu virus the last time a pandemic was declared in 1976. * An adjuvant is a chemical which increases the body’s reaction to a vaccine, and thus stretches the number of doses which a given quantity of vaccine can produce. Read more on adjuvants here. Many people are also concerned about the fact that the vaccine is being rushed through safety procedures while the government has provided pharmaceutical companies with blanket immunity from lawsuits arriving out of the vaccine causing deaths and injuries. more////
	Report Comment oky1, (8/29/2009 1:51:08 PM) Kim Archer,thanks for following this issue!

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