Tulsa World: Bartlett keeps lead in race, survey shows

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Bartlett keeps lead in race, survey shows

By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer
Published: 11/8/2009 2:24 AM
Last Modified: 11/8/2009 9:04 AM

Visit the Tulsa World’s city elections Web page for continuing coverage.

View a sample ballot for Tuesday's election.

Two months of highly charged campaigning have hardly budged public opinion about Tuesday's Tulsa mayoral election, the Oklahoma Poll has found.

The survey of 687 likely voters, taken Oct. 31 to Nov. 5, shows Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr. leading Democrat Tom Adelson 40 percent to 32 percent — an 8-point spread — with independent Mark Perkins at 14 percent.

A similar survey taken just before the city primary in September gave Bartlett a 10-point lead in a head-to-head matchup. That survey did not include Perkins or fellow independent Larry Kirkpatrick.

In the only other citywide race, incumbent City Auditor Phil Wood, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Preston Doerflinger were virtually even, with nearly one-fourth of those surveyed indicating no preference.

If the sometimes-bombastic mayoral campaign changed many minds, voters were reluctant to admit it.

"I don't like the mudslinging,"

said poll respondent Alfreda Shaw. "It gets away from the issues that people really want to talk about it. I'm looking for someone to keep bringing the city of Tulsa forward."

For Shaw, a Democrat, that likely means a vote for Adelson. But Republicans outnumber Democrats in Tulsa, and this campaign appears to be sharply divided along party lines.

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans said they will vote for Bartlett, while almost 60 percent of Democrats favored Adelson.

Perkins, a registered Republican, drew equally from Republicans and Democrats — 14.5 percent each.

"Perkins is really not a factor," said Bill Shapard, president of SoonerPoll.com, which conducted the survey.

"He's finding out what most independents find out in Oklahoma. They can either be a spoiler or have no impact."

Many thought Perkins might hurt Bartlett's chances, but the biggest share of his support came from self-described moderates. Self-described conservatives, who made up more than half the sample, went for Bartlett 4-to-1.

Fewer than 1-in-10 of those who consider themselves very conservative said they would vote for Adelson.

"I believe (Bartlett) has better experience for this job," said Janet Beers, a conservative voter whose first choice for mayor was Republican former city councilor Chris Medlock.

Beers said integrity was the most important quality for a mayoral candidate.

"That is a leadership value," she said.

"I want somebody who is a team player, who doesn't try to run the whole thing himself. Also somebody who is accountable. Somebody who doesn't try to hide. And somebody who looks to the welfare of others, not just one group.

"I also want somebody who's not into big government. I want people who take care of people, not government."

Adelson held a big margin among liberals and led Bartlett 42 percent to 25 percent among moderates. He did slightly better than Bartlett with women, particularly single women, and by a narrow margin was seen as best-suited to deal with education issues.

Bartlett, however, was seen as best suited to handle the city budget, crime, economic development, streets and roads and downtown development. The two were even on neighborhood issues.

"I favor Bartlett because he has a history as a businessman, and I tend to vote Republican," said Amelia Jones.

"I personally do not care too much for how Adelson presents himself."

"I don't like either one of them, but because of the fact (Adelson) is a Democrat I'll probably vote for him," said Margaret Goodell.

"I don't like the advertisements," Goodell said. "I don't know if I believe all of that . . . I just don't feel like they're bringing much energy to it. I don't know anything they've said that's really progressive or going to help much."

Conventional wisdom is that national politics favor Republicans in Oklahoma, but Vicki Dalton, who described herself as a former Republican, said the opposite is true for her.

"I have a huge problem with the Republican Party right now," Dalton said. "I have real anger with that party for first time in my life. Republicans are standing in the way of progress. Bartlett is a Republican, and he's going to be supporting those Republicans."

What’s on Tuesday’s general election ballot?

(i) - incumbent

Mayor

Democrat Tom Adelson

Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr.

Independent Lawrence Kirkpatrick

Independent Mark Perkins

City Auditor

Republican Preston Doerflinger

Democrat Phil Wood (i)

City Council District 3

Republican Karl Hulcher

Independent David Patrick (i)

Democrat Roscoe Turner

City Council District 4

Democrat Maria Barnes

Republican Eric Gomez (i)

City Council District 6

Republican James Mautino

Democrat Dennis Troyer (i)

City Council District 9

Republican G.T. Bynum (i)

Democrat Roger Lowry

Proposition 1: Shall the existing charter of the city of Tulsa, as heretofore amended, be further amended to require that any person filing for and holding the office of city auditor must be a certified public accountant or certified internal auditor?

Proposition 2: Shall the charter of the city of Tulsa be amended to provide that city councilors will serve for three-year terms, which shall be staggered so that no more than three council districts will have an election in any one year?

Proposition 3: Shall the charter of the city of Tulsa be amended to require that before any claim or lawsuit where the demand is equal to or greater that $1 million ($1,000,000) may be settled, both the mayor and the City Council must agree to the settlement?

In-person absentee voting

City voters can vote in-person absentee from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. monday at the Tulsa County Election Board, 555 N. Denver Ave. Standard voting takes place from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday at polling precincts.

More about the Oklahoma Poll

SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific telephone survey from Oct. 31 to Nov. 5 of 687 likely voters registered in the city of Tulsa. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The respondents consisted of 350 republicans, 303 Democrats, 32 independents and two Libertarians selected randomly from voters who have established a frequent voting pattern.

The Oklahoma Poll is sponsored by the Tulsa World.

Randy Krehbiel 581-8365
randy.krehbiel@tulsaworld.com By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer

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Some reader comments for this story were copied from "Sunday: Tulsans polled in mayor's race," which was published on 11/7/2009.

	Report Comment Rupert Shootman, Tulsa (11/8/2009 1:00:57 PM) Sweeper. The problem is that you keep hangin' out with fellas like the kind of fell you are. You hangin' out in East Tulsa with the kinda fella I am? Perkins isn't doin' so well out here. I guessing he ain't doing so well in West Tulsa, or even South Tulsa. You gotta get out of mid-town fella.
	Report Comment Rupert Shootman, Tulsa (11/8/2009 1:05:00 PM) ANTI-RUBE wrote: "Why does the TW want people to think Perkins is polling less than he was 4 weeks ago?" I'd say it's because Perkins was getting a lot of Medlock's voters four weeks ago. But now that Medlock has come out for Bartlett, he's lost a lot of support. Medlock is killing Perkins.
	Report Comment Rupert Shootman, Tulsa (11/8/2009 4:56:18 PM) Medlocks endorsement is bringing in tons of the undecided and conservatives looking at an independent alternative. They might have gone with Perkins, but now he's brought them back to the Repubs. I'll be stunned if Perkins gets more than 16% of the vote. The big question for me is, can Bartlett get over 50%?
	Report Comment Rupert Shootman, Tulsa (11/8/2009 4:57:35 PM) WhoseLeft. About that city government experience you're spouting? Years in city government: Bartlett 4, Adleson 0.
	Report Comment Rupert Shootman, Tulsa (11/8/2009 10:26:54 PM) Corvetteguy. Medlock got over 7000 votes. That's not a "very few". That fills a lot of high school auditoriums. That turns a lot of elections. I guess we'll see.
	Report Comment Rupert Shootman, Tulsa (11/8/2009 11:18:47 PM) Corvetteguy. You've proven yourself to be an idiot. Medlock pulled over 30% of the Repub vote. Even assuming that the GOP makes up 40% of the vote on Tuesday Medlock then has sway with about 13% of the voters. That's enough to throw the race towards Bartlett. That's basically as many votes as this poll shows Perkins to have. He will be the difference maker in this race.
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/7/2009 5:58:18 PM) Me to, I can't wait. Wonder if there are going to be any surprises. Good sales job TW.
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/8/2009 3:56:59 AM) Solution to an impending diaster. I urge all Perkins voters to vote for Addleson before it's too late. I was voting for Perkins but after this poll I refuse to throw away my vote.
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/8/2009 10:46:01 PM) Unless the undecideds move heavily for Adelson, this is Bartlett's race.
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/8/2009 11:35:43 PM) Thanks Thunder I sure hope so. I just wish that for once the voters would exercise their right to vote for the candidate of their choice and not who the polls say they should vote for. Not who the political party masters select for the voters to choose.
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/8/2009 11:58:33 PM) Probably planning his next election circus.
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/9/2009 2:35:33 PM) Perkins supportors better hope he doesn't come close, but goes all the way. Because he is drawing mainly republican voters if he falls short he'll have practically handed the election to Adelson. It's all or nothing for Perkins.
	Report Comment Roots, Tulsa (11/9/2009 11:47:03 AM) WAKE UP FOLKS . . . and read the fine print. Tulsa World slanted this poll by permitting the sample to be skewed heavily in favor of Republican voters, and away from Independent voters. City of Tulsa registrations: Repub. - 45% Dem. - 43% Ind. - 12% Poll sample: Repub. - 51% Dem. - 44% Ind. - 5% This race will be very tight; much tighter than TW wants you to believe. Get out and make a difference!
	Report Comment born okay the 1st time, tulsa (11/7/2009 7:08:55 PM) Even nicer if every eligible voter would register, then show up.
	Report Comment born okay the 1st time, tulsa (11/8/2009 10:33:54 AM) Its easy to see who TW is promoting & endorsing. its also easy to see how some are like sheep & spook at what is blatantly obvious to others. Stick to your guns, vote with the person who you think will do the best job. you never know, may get a surprise. Im interested in WHEN this poll was actually done. These numbers they show sound like the same figures they were throwing around almost a month ago.
	Report Comment born okay the 1st time, tulsa (11/8/2009 10:34:54 AM) anti-rube, you hit the nail on the head. Anyone can skew a poll to favor who they want.Dont be sheep, use your own brain to vote responsibly.
	Report Comment born okay the 1st time, tulsa (11/9/2009 12:44:02 PM) Corvetteguy, Adelson is a flaming liberal. He contributed nearly 100k towards Obamas election. That swings him very far left.
	Report Comment myownguy, Tulsa (11/9/2009 3:49:04 PM) "Every % that Perkins gets more than 10% sends that message" What message is that? Will the winner really care that a "so called" message was sent? Doesn't matter. A vote for Perkins is a wasted vote unless he wins. And with the 2 party system that Oklahoma has, an independant does not have much of a chance. And if I thought that Perkins had a chance to win, I would vote for him. I may anyway. Either way you vote, we will have a new mayor. Term Limits for Everyone!!!!
	Report Comment Mr. Tweedy, Tulsa (11/9/2009 5:56:04 AM) Anyone who thinks Bartlett or Adelson or Perkins is not the exact same candidate is delusional. That being said - a vote for Perkins is a waste ala Ron Paul and I can't bring myself to vote for someone named 'Dewey'.
	Report Comment Mr. Tweedy, Tulsa (11/11/2009 6:07:43 AM) ***Dr. Strangelove, Tulsa (11/9/2009 11:32:13 AM) Tweedy- a vote for Perkins isn't a wasted vote. Check all three out again and make an informed decision. Not voting for someone just because you don't think they can win is plain foolish. No - it's not a wasted for vote if that's what you believe in. But, if that vote is for someone who doesn't stand a chance of winning, then you're doing nothing but helping someone who possibly doesn't agree with anything you do win. You really have to balance who agrees with you on most issues with who stands the best chance of winning and then choose the one that has as much as possible of both qualities.
	Report Comment Moses, Jenks (11/7/2009 6:31:54 PM) It would be nice if every registered voter would take the time to stop at the polls and vote! That will never happen.
	Report Comment Moses, Jenks (11/8/2009 7:44:52 AM) If I could I would vote for Dewey, but I don't have a dog in this hunt! Just go to the polls and vote people and may the best man win.
	Report Comment Ignatz, A nice place where Democrats hold every office in the County. (11/7/2009 8:36:05 PM) where is "da enuff's" (Dewey) usual comment about Obama?> Has he finally thrown in the towel?
	Report Comment WeThePeople, Tulsa (11/8/2009 9:47:03 AM) Aaaw, pooor Nuff, it'll all be over soon so stop your whining.
	Report Comment IrishQuaker, Tulsa (11/8/2009 8:51:09 AM) Neither right not left, but forward. I am voting for the candidate who will best lead the city forward and that would be Tom Adelson.

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