Tulsa World: Bartlett keeps lead in race, survey shows

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Bartlett keeps lead in race, survey shows

By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer
Published: 11/8/2009 2:24 AM
Last Modified: 11/8/2009 9:04 AM

Visit the Tulsa World’s city elections Web page for continuing coverage.

View a sample ballot for Tuesday's election.

Two months of highly charged campaigning have hardly budged public opinion about Tuesday's Tulsa mayoral election, the Oklahoma Poll has found.

The survey of 687 likely voters, taken Oct. 31 to Nov. 5, shows Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr. leading Democrat Tom Adelson 40 percent to 32 percent — an 8-point spread — with independent Mark Perkins at 14 percent.

A similar survey taken just before the city primary in September gave Bartlett a 10-point lead in a head-to-head matchup. That survey did not include Perkins or fellow independent Larry Kirkpatrick.

In the only other citywide race, incumbent City Auditor Phil Wood, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Preston Doerflinger were virtually even, with nearly one-fourth of those surveyed indicating no preference.

If the sometimes-bombastic mayoral campaign changed many minds, voters were reluctant to admit it.

"I don't like the mudslinging," said poll respondent Alfreda Shaw. "It gets away from the issues that people really want to talk about it. I'm looking for someone to keep bringing the city of Tulsa forward."

For Shaw, a Democrat, that likely means a vote for Adelson. But Republicans outnumber Democrats in Tulsa, and this campaign appears to be sharply divided along party lines.

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans said they will vote for Bartlett, while almost 60 percent of Democrats favored Adelson.

Perkins, a registered Republican, drew equally from Republicans and Democrats — 14.5 percent each.

"Perkins is really not a factor," said Bill Shapard, president of SoonerPoll.com, which conducted the survey.

"He's finding out what most independents find out in Oklahoma. They can either be a spoiler or have no impact."

Many thought Perkins might hurt Bartlett's chances, but the biggest share of his support came from self-described moderates. Self-described conservatives, who made up more than half the sample, went for Bartlett 4-to-1.

Fewer than 1-in-10 of those who consider themselves very conservative said they would vote for Adelson.

"I believe (Bartlett) has better experience for this job," said Janet Beers, a conservative voter whose first choice for mayor was Republican former city councilor Chris Medlock.

Beers said integrity was the most important quality for a mayoral candidate.

"That is a leadership value," she said.

"I want somebody who is a team player, who doesn't try to run the whole thing himself. Also somebody who is accountable. Somebody who doesn't try to hide. And somebody who looks to the welfare of others, not just one group.

"I also want somebody who's not into big government. I want people who take care of people, not government."

Adelson held a big margin among liberals and led Bartlett 42 percent to 25 percent among moderates. He did slightly better than Bartlett with women, particularly single women, and by a narrow margin was seen as best-suited to deal with education issues.

Bartlett, however, was seen as best suited to handle the city budget, crime, economic development, streets and roads and downtown development. The two were even on neighborhood issues.

"I favor Bartlett because he has a history as a businessman, and I tend to vote Republican," said Amelia Jones.

"I personally do not care too much for how Adelson presents himself."

"I don't like either one of them, but because of the fact (Adelson) is a Democrat I'll probably vote for him," said Margaret Goodell.

"I don't like the advertisements," Goodell said. "I don't know if I believe all of that . . . I just don't feel like they're bringing much energy to it. I don't know anything they've said that's really progressive or going to help much."

Conventional wisdom is that national politics favor Republicans in Oklahoma, but Vicki Dalton, who described herself as a former Republican, said the opposite is true for her.

"I have a huge problem with the Republican Party right now," Dalton said. "I have real anger with that party for first time in my life. Republicans are standing in the way of progress. Bartlett is a Republican, and he's going to be supporting those Republicans."

What’s on Tuesday’s general election ballot?

(i) - incumbent

Mayor

Democrat Tom Adelson

Republican Dewey Bartlett Jr.

Independent Lawrence Kirkpatrick

Independent Mark Perkins

City Auditor

Republican Preston Doerflinger

Democrat Phil Wood (i)

City Council District 3

Republican Karl Hulcher

Independent David Patrick (i)

Democrat Roscoe Turner

City Council District 4

Democrat Maria Barnes

Republican Eric Gomez (i)

City Council District 6

Republican James Mautino

Democrat Dennis Troyer (i)

City Council District 9

Republican G.T. Bynum (i)

Democrat Roger Lowry

Proposition 1: Shall the existing charter of the city of Tulsa, as heretofore amended, be further amended to require that any person filing for and holding the office of city auditor must be a certified public accountant or certified internal auditor?

Proposition 2: Shall the charter of the city of Tulsa be amended to provide that city councilors will serve for three-year terms, which shall be staggered so that no more than three council districts will have an election in any one year?

Proposition 3: Shall the charter of the city of Tulsa be amended to require that before any claim or lawsuit where the demand is equal to or greater that $1 million ($1,000,000) may be settled, both the mayor and the City Council must agree to the settlement?

In-person absentee voting

City voters can vote in-person absentee from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. monday at the Tulsa County Election Board, 555 N. Denver Ave. Standard voting takes place from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday at polling precincts.

More about the Oklahoma Poll

SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific telephone survey from Oct. 31 to Nov. 5 of 687 likely voters registered in the city of Tulsa. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The respondents consisted of 350 republicans, 303 Democrats, 32 independents and two Libertarians selected randomly from voters who have established a frequent voting pattern.

The Oklahoma Poll is sponsored by the Tulsa World.

Randy Krehbiel 581-8365
randy.krehbiel@tulsaworld.com By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer

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Some reader comments for this story were copied from "Sunday: Tulsans polled in mayor's race," which was published on 11/7/2009.

	Report Comment AdMan, (11/7/2009 5:36:45 PM) Oh boy! I am on the edge of my seat!
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/7/2009 5:58:18 PM) Me to, I can't wait. Wonder if there are going to be any surprises. Good sales job TW.
	Report Comment Whocanutrust?, (11/7/2009 6:18:56 PM) Who really cares? It's all about the Benjamins!
	Report Comment Moses, Jenks (11/7/2009 6:31:54 PM) It would be nice if every registered voter would take the time to stop at the polls and vote! That will never happen.
	Report Comment born okay the 1st time, tulsa (11/7/2009 7:08:55 PM) Even nicer if every eligible voter would register, then show up.
	Report Comment nativedaughter, (11/7/2009 8:22:13 PM) Its time to start with smart comments and opinions. NOt the same crap we have heard for weeks. This city is in more trouble than any of these people know and the best they have got is dumb comments. Heres an idea: move out if you hate it some much.
	Report Comment Ignatz, A nice place where Democrats hold every office in the County. (11/7/2009 8:36:05 PM) where is "da enuff's" (Dewey) usual comment about Obama?> Has he finally thrown in the towel?
	Report Comment SaintSteven67, Tulsa (11/7/2009 10:25:33 PM) I have lived in Tulsa for 31 of my 43 years on this earth. I have been a registered voter ever since I was eligible to vote and have voted in every local, state, and nation election. Yet, never, not once, have I ever been surveyed in any of these polls.
	Report Comment Whoknew?, Tulsa (11/7/2009 10:55:52 PM) Saint don't feel like the lone stranger.
	Report Comment FUTURE WORLD, Tulsa (11/8/2009 3:56:59 AM) Solution to an impending diaster. I urge all Perkins voters to vote for Addleson before it's too late. I was voting for Perkins but after this poll I refuse to throw away my vote.
	Report Comment Observer3, (11/8/2009 7:28:57 AM) Those who vote for Perkins will be helping Obama-lover Adelson win. Does Tulsa really need another liberal Democrat to throw away our tax dollars on ridiculous projects (such as One Technology Center)? Remember, Mr. Adelson said he thinks Obama is doing a great job as President!
	Report Comment Moses, Jenks (11/8/2009 7:44:52 AM) If I could I would vote for Dewey, but I don't have a dog in this hunt! Just go to the polls and vote people and may the best man win.
	Report Comment getreal, (11/8/2009 7:45:04 AM) We are voting for Mayor of Tulsa, the person responsible for police, fire, streets, and garbage. Who cares if they like Obama? This is an election to operate our city, not Washington. We better start thinking of home first or Tulsa is going to be the Detroit of the Plains.
	Report Comment divermp, (11/8/2009 7:54:31 AM) Future World....This poll was only of 630 people. Most republicans that I know, who have never crossed party lines, are voting for Mark. There is a good chance this poll was not an accurately set up to cover the large Tulsa population. Often times news sources do this to sway a vote. I took a poll yesterday of 8 people (that I didn't know) and 75% said the were voting for Perkins and 25% said they were voting for Adelson (0% for Bartlett). As much as I would love this, you and I both know this is not an accurate poll. Don't panic. Perkins still has a fair shot at this. You and I both know Perkins is the right guy for this job. We need to prove to Tulsa that we can do this. We don't have to put up with the mud slinging bipartisan politicians. It is not right to run a campaign the way they have. We all need to stand together, spread the word and vote for this guy. Tulsa needs Mark Perkins.
	Report Comment divermp, (11/8/2009 7:58:26 AM) Getreal, you are right. This is the Mayor of Tulsa. We need someone who can turn our city around!!! We need someone who can keep us safe. We need someone who can bring more jobs to Tulsa. We need someone with fresh ideas. We need someone who has the best interest of our city in mind....not someone who is using this job as a stair step to bigger and better political career. We need Mark Perkins!
	Report Comment Reason09, (11/8/2009 8:34:52 AM) Perkins a non factor. But his real goal to get more clients for his law practice may have been reached.
	Report Comment Reason09, (11/8/2009 8:36:25 AM) diver....your really trying to argue your "polling methods" have any reliability beyond anecdotes? If anything this poll historically UNDEREPORTS CONSERVATIVE votes
	Report Comment willi, T-oolsa (11/8/2009 8:49:09 AM) W----eee----eellll, I have the solution. Do not go in and vote name recognition. Vote some new crooks in.
	Report Comment IrishQuaker, Tulsa (11/8/2009 8:51:09 AM) Neither right not left, but forward. I am voting for the candidate who will best lead the city forward and that would be Tom Adelson.
	Report Comment IrishQuaker, Tulsa (11/8/2009 8:56:43 AM) Dewy's experience is in leading the oil company he inherited. Tom Adelson has experience not only as a state senator, but before that as the governor's health advisor. Dewey has by the fact of his family name, also inherited a web of cronies. We need real solutions and real talent to raise Tulsa. Relying on old boy networks leaves us in the dust. Perkins might be ready in a few years, but he is too green (and wants to hire a city manager to run the city). If you actually care about your city--more than you care for your stubborn national affiliations--you will vote for Adelson.
	Report Comment Nuff, (11/8/2009 9:06:33 AM) I don't believe this poll. Perkins is getting alot of votes. How much did Dewey pay the TW to print this line of garbage?
	Report Comment Charley, (11/8/2009 9:19:01 AM) That's funny, I ran a survey in the barber shop, the pool hall & the grocery store. Bartlett wasn't mentioned, Adelson got 2 votes & Perkins got the rest. I guess it matters where you do your poll. Dewey must have done his poll in his campaign headquarters.
	Report Comment WeThePeople, Tulsa (11/8/2009 9:47:03 AM) Aaaw, pooor Nuff, it'll all be over soon so stop your whining.
	Report Comment Shirley S, (11/8/2009 9:51:30 AM) We usually get the polling calls but didn't this time. Probably because with the past calls from the Republicans we've told the people polling we are voting for Tom Adelson...one guy argued with my husband when he asked him for his vote for Dewey and my husband said no I'm voting for Adelson. I think Dewey is going to be surprised at the number of South Tulsan Republicans who are not voting for him.....I see A LOT of Mark Perkins signs around here. I don't believe this poll either.
	Report Comment Shirley S, (11/8/2009 9:54:51 AM) I should say...I don't believe this poll is an accurate representation of the people who will actually get out to vote...

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