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State epidemiologist casts doubt on flu vaccine predictions
Dr. Kristy Bradley
By JIM MYERS World Washington Bureau
Published:
10/28/2009 7:18 PM
Last Modified: 10/28/2009 7:18 PM
Related story:
H1N1 vaccine to be available at three TPS schools
WASHINGTON — Oklahoma state epidemiologist Dr. Kristy Bradley, whose predictions about federal officials’ H1N1 flu vaccination schedule proved correct, expressed similar doubts Wednesday about their latest update on the pandemic.
“I think I’m going to maintain some healthy skepticism, and we’ll just evaluate it week by week,’’ she said.
Bradley described the weekly frustrations and challenges experienced by the Oklahoma State Department of Health as it has attempted to respond to earlier federal government reports on how many doses of the flu vaccine the state would get, only to find out later that a fraction of that number actually would be available.
“So first we get our hopes up, and then we have them dashed,’’ Bradley said.
Only 167,000 doses of the flu vaccine have arrived in a state with about 3.5 million residents, she said.
Even that number doesn’t tell the whole story, she added.
All of the first two shipments were made up of the nasal-mist form of the vaccine, she said, adding that none of those doses could be provided to pregnant women, one of the priority groups designated for early doses.
More than 50 percent of the doses shipped to Oklahoma so far have been in the nasal form, Bradley said.
She explained how that percentage hampered the state’s ability to reach out to priority groups.
“That affects our distribution strategy,’’ Bradley said.
When asked how her own predictions seemed to be more on point than those of federal officials, she said her skepticism was based on earlier reports that yields from production companies were not as good as expected.
“That was a very early warning sign,’’ Bradley said.
In addition, she said, past experiences led her to question the rosier predictions coming from the federal officials.
“There had been a disconnect in their message,’’ Bradley said.
She made her comments when asked to respond to the latest update by Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.
Speaking to reporters, Napolitano asked for the public’s understanding about how fluid the situation remains, and Sebelius said officials shared the frustrations of Americans who want to be vaccinated.
Sebelius said the government is working to fill the gap between the demand for the vaccine and the supply.
Production has been accelerated, and site visits have occurred to ensure that any previous glitches blamed on the lower output in the past are being addressed, she said.
In the last seven days, Sebelius said, 9 million doses of the vaccine have been produced.
That brings the total to 23 million doses, she said.
By JIM MYERS World Washington Bureau
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Reader comments for this story have been moved to the most updated version of the story, now under the headline "
Epidemiologist skeptical about flu vaccine data
," which was published on 10/29/2009. So far, 14 comments have been made.
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