Emig column: Quality of nonleague schedules can be risky business
BY GUERIN EMIG World Sports Writer
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
8/24/10 at 6:06 AM
NORMAN - Four years ago, Bob Stoops welcomed all comers.
"If you're going to be one of those top 10 teams, or teams that continually fight for a championship, you ought to be willing to go out and play different people," he said the week his Oklahoma Sooners played Washington.
"It's exciting for our players. It's challenging for us as coaches. I know the fan interest is there, the TV audience is there. And if you're good enough, you win. All of it together, it's been good for us and through the years we've been fairly successful at handling it."
Four weeks ago, with the Washington, Alabama and Miami series behind him - and home-and-homes with Florida State, Notre Dame Tennessee, Ohio State and LSU dead ahead - Stoops was asked about OU's nonconference gauntlet.
"I'm not so sure that I embrace it any more," he replied. "I don't know how much it (helps) you. It all gets down to if you lose one game by a point to one of those teams, and someone else plays four teams that are easy, and at the end of the year you have one more loss than they do, they're gonna be ranked ahead of you."
Strength of schedule may factor into some of the computer rankings that make up a third of the BCS standings. It may resonate with some Coaches or Harris Poll voters who make up the other two thirds. But it hasn't been a stand-alone BCS component since 2003.
Between that and the ever-increasing need for guaranteed revenue, college powers fatten their nonconference schedule with home games that are all but guaranteed victories.
Alabama, the defending national champion top-ranked in the preseason polls, hosts Penn State Sept. 11. That's a fair fight.
But take a look at the Crimson Tide's other nonconference opponents: San Jose State, which went 2-10 last year; Duke, which last had a winning season in 1994; and Georgia State.
Yes, Georgia State, a program in its very first season of football. Georgia State, with 26 scholarship players opens its season against NAIA Shorter University, and will play the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Nov. 18.
At least Alabama is playing one nonconference team that made a bowl game last year. No. 12 Wisconsin is playing none. Instead, the Badgers host Football Championship Subdivision (formerly Div. I-AA) member Austin Peay, San Jose State and Arizona State, while traveling to UNLV.
It's worth noting that marquee games are often scheduled well in advance, and Arizona State likely looked like a worthy opponent when Wisconsin scheduled the Sun Devils. But that doesn't necessarily account for the appearance of Austin Peay, San Jose State and UNLV.
No. 8 Nebraska, No. 11 Oregon, No. 17 Arkansas, No. 22 Auburn and No. 23 Georgia are also taking the easy way out. They're all playing one nonconference team coming off a bowl appearance.
Arkansas, Auburn and Georgia, like Alabama, can use the SEC juggernaut as an excuse to somewhat soften nonconference schedules. But with the appearance of FCS teams and other lightweights on all four schedules, it seems they have taken it to an extreme.
Texas, Virginia Tech, Florida, Iowa, TCU, Georgia Tech, LSU, Pitt, Utah, Oregon State and West Virginia represent the middle of the road. Those ranked teams are playing two nonconference teams coming off bowl appearances.
The Top 25 teams still doing it the hard way are Ohio State, Boise State, OU, Miami, North Carolina and Florida State. Those programs have scheduled three nonconference opponents coming off bowl games.
Of that group, OU, Miami, Florida State and Boise are playing two or more nonconference teams that won their bowls. That's it.
Besides bowl-winning Florida State and Air Force, the Sooners also play Cincinnati, coming off a BCS loss in the Sugar Bowl. The only other Top 25 teams with nonconference schedules including 2009 BCS qualifiers are Miami, Florida State, Penn State, Oregon State and Georgia.
It's not just coach speak. The Sooners are bucking a trend by playing a beefy nonconference schedule. And in doing so, they're jeopardizing the championship aspirations Stoops so loves to tout.
The notion that a nonconference gauntlet makes you a better team over the season's long haul?
"If you don't get anyone hurt, it does," Stoops said. "If you don't get anyone hurt and you win, it definitely benefits you."
You wonder how much longer OU can run the risk of losing.
"Well, I don't know. We're pretty far out with ours," Stoops said, noting that nonconference heavyweights are scheduled through 2019.
"It'll probably be the next coach. It might change for him."
Tough roads ahead
(and some not so tough)
A look at five teams in the preseason AP Top 25 with tough nonconference schedules and five with schedules that shouldn’t be as much of a challenge:
Florida State
Sept. 4: vs. Samford
Sept. 11: at Oklahoma
Sept. 18: vs. BYU
Nov. 27: vs. Florida
One of two Top 25 teams playing three nonconference opponents coming off bowl victories. Two of those foes, OU and Florida, should be in this year's BCS hunt.
Miami
Sept. 2: vs. Florida A&M
Sept. 11: at Ohio State
Sept. 23: at Pittsburgh
Nov. 27: vs. USF
The Hurricanes also play three nonconference opponents that won bowls. Two of those games are on the road, including a daunting trip into Ohio State's Horseshoe.
Oklahoma
Sept. 4: vs. Utah St.
Sept. 11: vs. Florida State
Sept. 18: vs. Air Force
Sept. 25: at Cincinnati
The Sooners play three conference opponents that appeared in bowls. Florida State and Air Force won theirs, while Cincinnati lost to Florida in the Sugar.
Boise State
Sept. 6: vs. Virginia Tech (Landover, Md.)
Sept. 18: at Wyoming
Sept. 25: vs. Oregon State
Oct. 9: vs. Toledo
The opener against the Hokies is a definite road game. Wyoming won a bowl game last year, and Oregon State should challenge USC in the Pac-10.
North Carolina
Sept. 4: vs. LSU (Atlanta)
Sept. 25: at Rutgers
Oct. 2: vs. East Carolina
Oct. 30: vs. William & Mary
The matchup in the Georgia Dome against LSU and fans will feel like a road game. Rutgers and East Carolina both won nine games last year.
ALABAMA
Sept. 4: vs.
San Jose State
Sept. 11: vs.
Penn State
Sept. 18: at Duke
Nov. 18: vs.
Georgia State
This is Georgia
State’s first year
of football. Ever.
The Penn State
date is the only
thing that saves
Bama’s schedule
from all-time
laughingstock.
WISCONSIN
Sept. 4: at UNLV
Sept. 11: vs. San
Jose State
Sept. 18: vs.
Arizona State
Sept. 25: vs.
Austin Peay
Austin Peay is a
Football Championship
Subdivision
(formerly
I-AA) team. San
Jose State went
2-10 last year,
Arizona State
4-8 and UNLV
5-7.
ARKANSAS
Sept. 4: vs.
Tennessee Tech
Sept. 11: vs.
UL-Monroe
Oct. 9: vs.
Texas A&M (Arlington,
Texas)
Nov. 13: vs. UTEP
No true road
games, one
game against an
FCS opponent,
and one game
against a team
that played in a
bowl last year.
NEBRASKA
Sept. 4: vs. Western
Kentucky
Sept. 11: vs. Idaho
Sept. 18: at
Washington
Sept. 25: vs.
South Dakota
State
SDSU is an
FCS team. The
Huskies went
5-7 last season.
Idaho won a
bowl game,
at least — the
Humanitarian.
AUBURN
Sept. 4: vs.
Arkansas State
Sept. 18: vs.
Clemson
Oct. 2: vs.
UL-Monroe
Nov. 6: vs.
Chattanooga
Four home
games. One
against an FCS
foe. Two against
Sun Belt teams.
One against a
Clemson team
that lost five
times last year.
Original Print Headline: Risky business
Guerin Emig 581-8355
guerin.emig@tulsaworld.com
Associated Images:
Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops faces a tough nonconference slate this season. MIKE SIMONS / Tulsa World file
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