OU football: A game-by-game look at the rest of the season and potentially dangerous matchups
BY GUERIN EMIG World Sports Writer
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
9/26/12 at 7:52 AM
Related Story: OU Notebook: No mental meltdown
NORMAN - The consensus was we would know a lot more about the Oklahoma Sooners after their first stern test of the season, their Big 12 Conference opener against surging Kansas State.
The Sooners didn't pass it, literally, when you consider Landry Jones' struggles Saturday night, and the result was their first loss of the year, their first home-field loss to a ranked opponent since Bob Stoops became coach.
The fallout could be measured by OU's sinking in both polls, but also by some grim realities that have set in.
The Sooners have a fifth-year senior quarterback making the same costly mistakes that sidetracked him as a redshirt freshman.
They have an erratic running game missing both an established, go-to ball-carrier and a consistent push from a reshuffled line.
They have a defensive front seven that has been victimized by two 100-yard rushers, and hasn't gotten any pass rush on the two FBS quarterbacks OU has faced.
They have a real need to force more turnovers, given their only takeaway has been Javon Harris' interception of a wildly off-track Florida A&M pass.
Now, the sky over Owen Field hasn't fallen. It can't just three games into a season. And there are positives Stoops would be glad to point out.
At wide receiver, Kenny Stills has been consistently dependable and occasionally dynamic, while freshman Sterling Shepard broke out against K-State.
New tailback Damien Williams gave the Sooners home run balls against UTEP and Florida A&M.
Mike Stoops has OU defensive backs covering and tackling better than they have since Stoops was here for his first tour of duty nine years ago.
Still, the variables of last Saturday night's loss, if not OU's early season in general, are alarming.
Considering the Sooners' tough road ahead against teams that have also proven some things to this point, how loud could the sirens become?
Dissecting OU's remaining games
Oct. 6
At Texas Tech
3 potential problems
1: Seth Doege is still Tech's quarterback. He has completed 74 percent of his passes for 858 yards and 12 touchdowns (vs. 1 interception) in three Red Raider wins. Last year, Doege strafed the Sooners for 441 yards and four touchdowns. Now he targets an OU defense that hasn't faced anything resembling Tech's offense over its opening three games.
2: The Red Raiders shouldn't lack confidence. They won one of their last eight games a year ago, but it was in Norman as a 28-point underdog. Tommy Tuberville hasn't done much in two-plus seasons at Tech, but he has beaten the Sooners.
3: Bad things typically happen to the Sooners in Lubbock even when they come in playing well. Adrian Peterson couldn't win there. Neither could Sam Bradford. The last time anyone from OU tasted victory out on the West Texas prairie was Nov. 22, 2003.
Danger rating: High
Oct. 13 in Dallas
Vs. Texas
3 potential problems
1: David Ash threw for a career-high 326 yards and four touchdowns in the Longhorns' last game, a 66-31 victory at Ole Miss Sept. 15. The Horns average 259 rushing yards, a real issue for an OU front seven that appears breakable against the run.
2: Texas is missing a lot of tackles early this season, but they're also making some big plays. They picked off three Ole Miss passes, a disconcerting number for OU given Landry Jones' erratic ways.
3: The next two Saturdays, Texas plays Oklahoma State and West Virginia. Teams that carry momentum into the Cotton Bowl usually leave victorious. Beat the Cowboys and Mountaineers, the Horns will ride a tidal wave into Dallas.
Danger rating: Extreme
Oct. 20
Vs. Kansas
3 potential problems
1: The letdown of coming off Texas Week, likely to be felt both among players on the field and fans in the stands.
2: Hey, Texas Tech won as a four-touchdown dog less than a year ago.
3: Ummm... A team-wide breakout of food poisoning the morning of the game?
Danger rating: Extremely low
Oct. 27
Vs. Notre Dame
3 potential problems
1: Regardless of what the Irish do between now and this game - they play Miami, Stanford and BYU - this qualifies as a big game. OU was once impenetrable in big games at Owen Field. Then Kansas State came to town and the fortress went to ruins.
2: Brian Kelly's defense has 13 takeaways and eight interceptions in four games. It made an absolute mess of Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson last Saturday in South Bend.
3: Did we mention the Irish defense? The Sooners have already allowed more sacks than they'd prefer, and here they must contain Stephon Tuitt, the best defensive end they'll likely try to block all season. Notre Dame's Manti Te'o might be the best linebacker OU faces all year.
Danger rating: High
Nov. 3
At Iowa State
3 potential problems
1: Every year you can count on Paul Rhoads' Cyclones pulling off a signature upset. It was Oklahoma State last November, Texas in 2010 and Nebraska in '09. OU needs to hope the Cyclones beat TCU Oct. 6 or K-State Oct. 13 to whet their appetite for this season.
2: This should suffice as the Game of the Year in Ames. ISU hasn't beaten the Sooners since 1990, and hasn't beaten them at home since 1960, a span of 20 straight losses. Think Jack Trice Stadium might be a bit of a madhouse for this one?
3: It's the trap game on OU's schedule, appearing right after an October grind featuring Texas and Notre Dame, and right before a finishing kick against TCU, OSU and West Virginia. It was the trap game on OSU's slate a year ago, and you know what happened.
Danger rating: Moderately high
Nov. 10
Vs. Baylor
3 potential problems
1: Baylor doesn't have Robert Griffin III in its arsenal any longer. But skill position studs like tailback Jarred Salubi and wideouts Lanear Sampson, Terrance Williams and Tevin Reese are still around.
2: The guy who replaced Griffin? Nick Florence leads the Big 12 Conference in total offense at 388 yards per game. He has thrown for 1,004 yards, the league's only four-digit passer besides West Virginia's Geno Smith.
3: Baylor is on a historic run, with Griffin's Heisman-winning football season followed by Brittney Griner and the undefeated Lady Bears capturing a national basketball championship. Who's to say that run doesn't continue?
Danger rating: Moderate
Nov. 17
At West Virginia
3 potential problems
1: They might be defending the Heisman favorite. Geno Smith is on pace to finish his senior season with more than 4,000 passing yards, 48 TDs and no interceptions. Griffin locked up his Heisman against OU with an inspired home-field performance last Nov. 19. Pretty good karma for Smith.
2: When you join a league, a marquee home game against a conference heavyweight makes the move sink in. It's something an entire university and fan base, let alone a football team, can rally around. This is West Virginia's such game, making it the fiercest road trip of the year for OU.
3: Another Baylor comparison. What helped make Griffin so dangerous were the speedy toys he played with. Smith's toys, like wide receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, are even faster and more dangerous.
Danger rating: Extreme
Nov. 24
Vs. Oklahoma State
3 potential problems
1: Last December, Joseph Randle rushed for 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns against an OU defense that included Frank Alexander and Travis Lewis. How productive might he be against the Alexander- and Lewis-less Sooners?
2: Jones threw three interceptions in OU's victory in 2010. He turned it over four times in the Sooners' 44-10 Bedlam loss a year ago. You see a trend emerging here? It's a decent bet OSU defensive coordinator Bill Young does.
3: OU's special teams are improving, but OSU's are proven. Quinn Sharp has been a Ray Guy and Lou Groza Award semifinalist. Justin Gilbert is a dynamic kick returner.
Danger rating: High
Dec. 1
At TCU
3 potential problems
1: Gary Patterson + TCU = mean defense. The Horned Frogs have given up 13 points over their first three games. It's the stingiest scoring defense in the nation, topping Alabama, even.
2: Junior quarterback Casey Pachall has started the season 54-of-71 for 841 yards and 8 touchdowns (vs. 1 interception). Used to be, the Frogs had to run to move the ball. Not this year.
3: Once more, the Sooners could be walking into a snake pit. This was supposed to be the game TCU used to celebrate a renovated Amon Carter Stadium. Then the Frogs joined the Big 12 and it became a season finale. They've been waiting a while to see OU.
Danger rating: High
Original Print Headline: High alert
Guerin Emig 918-581-8355
guerin.emig@tulsaworld.com
Associated Images:
Julian Wilson of Oklahoma is injured Saturday night during the Sooners' loss to Kansas State. MIKE SIMONS / Tulsa World
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