Michael Smith: 5 reasons 'Lincoln' and Day-Lewis will take top Oscar honors

BY MICHAEL SMITH World Scene Writer
Friday, January 11, 2013
1/12/13 at 7:14 AM

The Academy Awards nominations were announced Thursday, and "Lincoln" was awarded best picture.

That fact won't become official until the Feb. 24 Oscar ceremony, but it appears to be an inevitability.

In a year filled with snubs (critics and fans alike seem to think Ben Affleck is one of the best directors of this year for "Argo," but not the Academy), there is also little suspense for the next six weeks.

It will be a long wait to learn that Steven Spielberg's historical epic is the winner of Oscar's best picture, and that Daniel Day-Lewis will become the first three-time winner of the best actor Oscar for his portrayal of our 16th president.

Why is this victory so inevitable? Consider the following five reasons.

No. 1: The Oscar for best editing

This Oscar is critical, because the winner of best picture for 31 consecutive years has also been a nominee in the best editing category. That likely means the dream of a best-picture Oscar is over for "Amour," "Beasts of the Southern Wild," "Django Unchained" and "Les Miserables," as these four movies were not named in the category and the other five best picture nominees are the editing nominees.

No. 2: Lincoln has the most nominations

"Lincoln" received 12 Oscar nominations, one ahead of "Life of Pi" but four more than any other movie competing this year. In the past 22 years, the movie with the most nominations has won 15 times. Those odds might seem to leave a chance for "Life of Pi" to sneak in, but its odds are further reduced by the fact that ...

No. 3: A film with no acting nominations has won only 11 times in 84 years

"Lincoln" sports nominations in three of the four acting categories, but "Life of Pi" has none. This would seem to make "Silver Linings Playbook," which is the first film with nominees in all four acting categories in 31 years ("Reds" in 1981), the main competitor to "Lincoln." There's that, and there's the fact that though "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Argo" each have one acting nominee ...

No. 4: No nomination for best director = no chance at best picture

Affleck ("Argo") was not the only snub in the best director category. Kathryn Bigelow ("Zero Dark Thirty") also failed to make the cut, and so did Tom Hooper of "Les Miserables," a surprise to many. That leaves "Lincoln" with Spielberg as a directing nominee, and "Silver Linings Playbook" with David O. Russell nominated as best director for his rather unconventional mental-health comedy.

No. 5: "Lincoln" is an almost perfect "Oscar movie"

After last year's unconventional choice of "The Artist" (silent, black-and-white, French), a return to convention seems to be on track for Spielberg's all-American movie. It features a defining performance at its core. It has a sweeping style of historical storytelling, told on a giant scale with a cast of seeming thousands. Its technical proficiency, from costuming to cinematography, is beyond impressive.

"Lincoln" looks like your winner.

Breaking down the acting awards

I'll make predictions the week of the Oscars, but it's easy to go ahead and cut down the number of contenders for those who want to catch up on their Oscar-viewing.

BEST ACTOR

The mix: In a category consisting of largely the expected choices, there are those who never really got a look from the Academy and should have (Jack Black in "Bernie," Jake Gyllenhaal in "End of Watch"), and then there is the outright snub of John Hawkes in "The Sessions," which is one of the many oversights that has Hollywood baffled. It would be one thing if he didn't deserve to be nominated, but Hawkes' beautiful, compassionate portrayal of a disabled man looking for love is one of the year's standout efforts.

Oscar night: Daniel Day-Lewis' performance will define for the next couple of generations their image of what Abraham Lincoln was really like, as he gives us the man rather than the myth. "Lincoln" is a good but flawed film; Day-Lewis alone raises it closer to greatness.

BEST ACTRESS

The mix: It takes one of the weakest years in recent memory for women's roles for the Academy to name both its oldest-ever nominee (Riva, 85, for "Amour") and its youngest-ever nominee (Wallis, 9, of "Beasts of the Southern Wild"). That left candidates like past-winner Marion Cotillard (for the French "Rust and Bone") looking in from the outside, but "Amour" may have consumed all of the voters' foreign votes.

Oscar night: This is a two-woman race, for performances that could hardly be more different, but both of which define the unlimited range of two of Hollywood's most talented stars. Lawrence comes from the drama field to show herself to be a comedic genius, and Chastain goes to dark places as a CIA operative after last year's flighty role in "The Help." These two women will compete for years to come.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The mix: A rarity in that every nominee is a previous winner of one Oscar, so somebody will have a matching pair come Feb. 24. The list of those not noticed here is long (John Goodman for "Flight" and "Argo," Ezra Miller of "The Perks of Being a Wallflower," too many more to name), but the big surprise was Waltz taking the "Django Unchained" nomination that most believed was destined for Leonardo DiCaprio.

Oscar night: This one is a real puzzler, with Waltz the only odd-man-out come Oscar night. Arkin might be next, because his role is smaller, and he won more recently than the others. A likely three-man race between De Niro, Hoffman and Jones with no clear leader. The ceremony needs more such surprises.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The mix: Why is Jacki Weaver here, for a role that, as written, left her so little to do? That's the strength of Harvey Weinstein's campaigning for "Silver Linings Playbook," which could lead to great things for one of his expected 2013 movies and a local favorite: "August: Osage County." Several exceptional performances didn't have a shot (Emily Blunt of "Looper," Rosemarie DeWitt of "Your Sister's Sister").

Oscar night: A two-woman race (with Helen Hunt as a dark horse) between Anne Hathaway and Sally Field. Hathaway would appear to be the favorite for her show-stopping performance in "Les Miserables" as the doomed Fantine, full of raw emotions and completely nailing a live rendition of the musical's most popular song. However, ruling out Field as Mrs. Lincoln would be a mistake, despite two previous wins.

How to see the Oscar-nominated films

The Academy Awards nominations have been announced. Now you're thinking about seeing a few movies ahead of the Feb. 24 ceremony. Here's a primer on how, when and where you can take in the nominees.

See it now

Seven of the nine films nominated for best picture - and which contain the majority of the acting nominees, as well - are playing in Tulsa theaters now: "Argo," "Django Unchained," "Les Miserables," "Life of Pi," "Lincoln," "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Zero Dark Thirty," which opens Friday in eight Tulsa theaters.

Among other major nominees, "The Impossible" features best actress nominee Naomi Watts and is currently showing in Tulsa.

See it at home

Only the art-house film "Beasts of the Southern Wild" among the best-picture nominees is available on DVD ahead of the awards. Among those with major nominations, "Flight" (best actor nominee Denzel Washington) arrives on DVD on Feb. 5; "The Sessions" (Helen Hunt nominated for best supporting actress) is set for Feb. 12; and "Argo" (seven nominations) comes to DVD on Feb. 19.

"The Master," which features three acting nominees, is expected to be released for home-viewing in February, but a date is pending.

Also available on DVD is "Moonrise Kingdom" (best original screenplay), four of the five nominees for animated feature, and technical nominees "Snow White and the Huntsman," "The Avengers," "Prometheus" and "Mirror Mirror."

See it soon

Circle Cinema on Feb. 15 premieres "Amour," the Austrian film depicting the lives of an 80-something couple whose bond is tested when one becomes ill, and which is nominated for five Oscars: best picture, best actress, best foreign film, best director and best original screenplay.

Circle Cinema seems to have cornered the market on films with nominations that have not yet played in Tulsa. The National Geographic documentary "Chasing Ice" (a best song nominee) opens there Jan. 25, and there are plans to open the documentary feature "Five Broken Cameras" in February.

The theater is also slated to play a package of Oscar-nominated short films, both animated and live-action, beginning Feb. 1.

And the other nominees are ...

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Quvenzhane Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, "The Master"
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Director

Michael Haneke, "Amour"
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"
Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Best Original Screenplay

"Amour"
"Django Unchained"
"Flight"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Adapted Screenplay

"Argo"
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"

Best Animated Film

"Brave"
"Frankenweenie"
"ParaNorman"
"The Pirates! Band of Misfits"
"Wreck-it Ralph"

Full list of 85th Annual Academy Awards nominations

Complete list of 85th Annual Academy Awards nominations announced Thursday:

1. Best Picture: "Amour," ''Argo," ''Beasts of the Southern Wild," ''Django Unchained," ''Les Miserables," ''Life of Pi," ''Lincoln," ''Silver Linings Playbook," ''Zero Dark Thirty."

2. Actor: Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"; Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"; Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"; Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"; Denzel Washington, "Flight."

3. Actress: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"; Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"; Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"; Quvenzhane Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"; Naomi Watts, "The Impossible."

4. Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Argo"; Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"; Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"; Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"; Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained."

5. Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, "The Master"; Sally Field, "Lincoln"; Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"; Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"; Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook."

6. Directing: Michael Haneke, "Amour"; Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"; Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"; Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"; David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook."

7. Foreign Language Film: "Amour," Austria; "Kon-Tiki," Norway; "No," Chile; "A Royal Affair," Denmark; "War Witch," Canada.

8. Adapted Screenplay: Chris Terrio, "Argo"; Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"; David Magee, "Life of Pi"; Tony Kushner, "Lincoln"; David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook."

9. Original Screenplay: Michael Haneke, "Amour"; Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained"; John Gatins, "Flight"; Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, "Moonrise Kingdom"; Mark Boal, "Zero Dark Thirty."

10. Animated Feature Film: "Brave"; "Frankenweenie"; "ParaNorman"; "The Pirates! Band of Misfits"; "Wreck-It Ralph."

11. Production Design: "Anna Karenina," ''The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," ''Les Miserables," ''Life of Pi," ''Lincoln."

12. Cinematography: "Anna Karenina," ''Django Unchained," ''Life of Pi," ''Lincoln," ''Skyfall."

13. Sound Mixing: "Argo," ''Les Miserables," ''Life of Pi," ''Lincoln," ''Skyfall."

14. Sound Editing: "Argo," ''Django Unchained," ''Life of Pi," ''Skyfall," ''Zero Dark Thirty."

15. Original Score: "Anna Karenina," Dario Marianelli; "Argo," Alexandre Desplat; "Life of Pi," Mychael Danna; "Lincoln," John Williams; "Skyfall," Thomas Newman.

16. Original Song: "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice," J. Ralph; "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from "Ted," Walter Murphy and Seth MacFarlane; "Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi," Mychael Danna and Bombay Jayashri; "Skyfall" from "Skyfall," Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth; "Suddenly" from "Les Miserables," Claude-Michel Schonberg, Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil.

17. Costume Design: "Anna Karenina," ''Les Miserables," ''Lincoln," ''Mirror Mirror," ''Snow White and the Huntsman."

18. Documentary Feature: "5 Broken Cameras," ''The Gatekeepers," ''How to Survive a Plague," ''The Invisible War," ''Searching for Sugar Man."

19. Documentary (short subject): "Inocente," ''Kings Point," ''Mondays at Racine," ''Open Heart," ''Redemption."

20. Film Editing: "Argo," ''Life of Pi," ''Lincoln," ''Silver Linings Playbook," ''Zero Dark Thirty."

21. Makeup and Hairstyling: "Hitchcock," ''The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," ''Les Miserables."

22. Animated Short Film: "Adam and Dog," ''Fresh Guacamole," ''Head over Heels," ''Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare,' " "Paperman."

23. Live Action Short Film: "Asad," ''Buzkashi Boys," ''Curfew," ''Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)," ''Henry."

24. Visual Effects: "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey," ''Life of Pi," ''Marvel's The Avengers," ''Prometheus," ''Snow White and the Huntsman."
Original Print Headline: And the winner is ...

Nominees' box-office figures

Fifteen films received multiple Academy Awards nominations on Tuesday, and seven of those are box-office hits that have already passed the $100 million mark in theaters. The following is a look at the nominations list, along with ticket sales for those films.

Movie	Nominations	Box office
"Lincoln"	12	$145.0
'Life of Pi"	11	$91.6
"Les Miserables"	8	$106.4
"Silver Linings Playbook"	8	$35.4
"Argo"	7	$110.2
"Zero Dark Thirty"	5	$4.9
"Django Unchained"	5	$110.6
"Skyfall'	5	$297.3
"Amour"	5	$0.3
"Anna Karenina"	4	$11.6
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"	4	$11.2
"The Master"	3	$16.0
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"	3	$266.7
"Flight"	2	$92.5
"Snow White and the Huntsman"	2	$155.3