Tulsa World: Forget that thing about your gut

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Forget that thing about your gut

By MATT CAUTHRON Fantasy Football
Published: 10/26/2008 4:48 AM
Last Modified: 11/15/2008 1:05 AM

YIKES. I normally would never brag on good predictions or apologize for bad ones, but I’ve brought shame to myself and my family.

I actually recommended you start new Cowboy Roy Williams last week, and he proceeded to catch zero passes for zero yards and zero fantasy points.

The bad thing is, all signs pointed to that outcome. It was entirely predictable. He had been on the team for about two seconds, and he had to catch passes from a washed-up journeyman backup.

But I went with “my gut,” as I said at the time.

Not this week. I promise from here on that I will keep my gut away from all picks, and rely strictly on the usual formula: matchups and actual performance. This is the formula we all should use in lineup decisions. Your gut is likely as clueless as mine.

As always, start your stars.

We’re looking at possible plugins for bye weeks and injuries.

Start these guys

J.T. O’Sullivan, QB, 49ers: He turns the ball over so much that his coach last week talked about benching him. Fortunately for O’Sullivan, that coach is now unemployed.

But, turnovers or no, a Mike Martz offense is a MikeMartz offense. O’Sullivan had his best game of the season in Week 2 against Seattle, throwing for more than 300 yards and a score. The Seahawks have only gotten worse since then.

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets: Jones has been as good as any running back in fantasy football the past two weeks. But those performances came against two awful run defenses.

Well, guess what? This week’s opponent, the Chiefs, isn’t just awful, it’s the worst rush defense in the league by far. The Chiefs give up more than 200 yards per game on the ground, about 40 yards more than the 31st-ranked unit.

Antwan Randle El, WR, Redskins: I declined to name Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell as my top quarterback recommendation, because I beat the point into the ground every week about starting players against the Lions. But here I can’t resist. Clinton Portis and Santana Moss are must-starts every week, but against the Lions, all your Redskins are must-starts.

Not these guys

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts: I have a friend here in the newsroom who has been wavering on whether to start Manning — which is pretty hard not to do — or to start Jeff Garcia, who has a much better matchup this week. I’ve thought a lot about it, and I think she should go with Garcia.

Likewise, if you have a solid backup with a good matchup this week, don’t be afraid to sit Manning. He hasn’t been himself this season anyway, and he faces the best pass rush and best secondary in the league.

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys: Those in deeper leagues won’t be able to sit Barber. There just aren’t enough start-worthy backs to go around. But he faces an underrated defense in Tampa Bay that will sell out to stuff the run game, and dare Brad Johnson to beat them.

By the way, another stat to note: The Bucs haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

Not one.

Javon Walker, WR, Raiders: Walker finally made an impact on the Raiders offense last week, and it appears he will be a decent fantasy option going forward. But not this week against the Ravens.

If I were a betting man, I’d take the under in this one. Not something fantasy owners want any part of. By MATT CAUTHRON Fantasy Football

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