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OU's fate: A furious finish vs. early loss
Voters debate which is most important in BCS.
  
By JOHN E. HOOVER World Sports Writer
Published: 11/29/2008  2:23 AM
Last Modified: 11/29/2008  3:15 AM

Voters debate which is most important in BCS.



STILLWATER — Whether Bedlam cares or not, the great debate rages on.

When casting a college football vote in November, is it more relevant to consider which team has the best three-month body of work, or which team is playing the best at the end of the season?

"That's why there are multiple voters," said Boise State coach Chris Petersen, one of 61 head coaches who cast a ballot in the USA Today coaches poll. "Not only coaches, but other people that know as well, and hopefully the law of averages will work out the way it's supposed to."

That broad spectrum — figure in another 117 voters in the Harris Interactive poll, and six different computer rankings that all employ differing ways of calculating a team's strength — might on Sunday be tasked with determining the best between Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

The Sooners and Red Raiders, of course, have to win their games on Saturday to force the three-way tie. Tech hosts Baylor, while OU visits Oklahoma State in the annual Bedlam showdown. Both are favored, Tech by 21 1/2, OU by 7, although nothing would please the Cowboys more than wrecking another Sooner title run and setting a school record for regular-season victories.

Texas concluded its campaign Thursday by beating Texas A&M 49-9.

All three teams have been trying to get to 11-1 overall and 7-1 in Big 12 Conference play. If that happens, the team that's ranked highest in Sunday's Bowl Championship Series standings will play Missouri in the Big 12 title game. Tech would appear unable to win a three-way tie because the Red Raiders dropped to seventh after losing 65-21 last week at OU. But if OU loses at OSU, Tech wins a two-way tiebreaker with Texas because it beat the Longhorns. If Tech loses to Baylor, Texas wins its head-to-head tiebreaker with Oklahoma.

In this week's standings, No. 2 Texas is .084 points ahead of No. 3 OU.

So which carries more weight between OU and Texas? Is it UT's 45-35 victory over the Sooners on Oct. 11 in the Cotton Bowl, wherein Oklahoma led all but 12 minutes and lost its middle linebacker to injury? Or is it Oklahoma's surge ever since, during which the Sooners have averaged 59 points per game and seemingly solved their linebacker problem?

And can the fact that Texas lost to a Texas Tech team — the Longhorns trailed for 58 1/2 minutes of their 39-33 defeat in Lubbock — that was crushed last week in Norman?

"I think right now Oklahoma might be playing the best football of the three," said Kansas' Mark Mangino, another voter. "But when you look at the whole season, they both have played very well."

Two other voters, Oregon's Mike Bellotti and Fresno State's Pat Hill, said Texas' head-to-head victory over OU should probably trump the Sooners' fast finish. But both coaches hedged.

"All of a sudden you start looking at comparable scores and the stats and all that," Bellotti said, "I think it's the team that is the hottest at the time."

Said Hill, "It depends on the scores this week. If Oklahoma comes out and dominates again like they did last week against (Texas Tech), then you might have to overlook the win by Texas."

Giving too much weight to a team's full body of work would damage No. 4 Florida, which lost at home to four-loss Mississippi. Likewise with No. 5 USC, which fell to three-loss Oregon State. But those are considered upsets.

Texas has continued winning and shares the same record with the Sooners. So the Longhorns' victory seven weeks ago, despite OU going in as a 7-point favorite, is not seen as an upset.

That's where the unbiased computers come into play, right? Not necessarily.

Hugo resident Richard Billingsley's ranking system is among the six used by the BCS. But Billingsley said his formula gives extra consideration for a head-to-head win, something that at least two others don't (Texas Tech is still ranked ahead of OU in two of the six). Does that give Texas the edge over OU? No, because UT lost to a team that lost to OU.

"In a three-way tie, there's no way that you can judge head-to-head competition because it becomes an endless loop," Billingsley said.

So Billingsley's system factors in a heavy dose of schedule strength. Going into this week, OU's schedule, like its computer ranking, ranks one spot behind Texas. But the Longhorns' schedule strength will fall because they just played Texas A&M, a team that ranks in the 90s among 119 NCAA Bowl Subdivision teams. OU's schedule strength will rise because they play OSU, a team ranked in the teens.

"It's a fun season," Billingsley said, "and it could come down to decimal points."



John E. Hoover 581-8384
john.hoover@tulsaworld.com
By JOHN E. HOOVER World Sports Writer

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COMMENTS 
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3 comments have been made for this team so far. Tell us what you think below!
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tulsaOUfan, Tulsa (11/29/2008 4:50:31 PM)
Well, if OU beats OSU and if Texas goes to the B12 champ game instead of OU, then it's OU's fault for losing to Texas. The same goes for Texas. If they don't go to the B12 champ game, it's their own fault for losing to Texas Tech. If you lose and that puts you into a tie then you can't blame anyone else but yourself if you lose the tie-breaker.

It's a three way tie and the two that don't make it needs to just suck it up.
Report Comment
Bluebird of HOPE, Whiting, (11/29/2008 5:02:47 PM)
Mizzou vs. Kansas Game was one of the Greatest College Games I saw this season! Now, this was a fantastic College football game today. What a game! Kudos to all the players, coaches, fans, and tech staff.

It was a Classic!!

I LOVED IT!

Go Boilers!!

Had to post my thoughts somewhere on this rag; I guess this is as good as it gets. What a game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:-D
Report Comment
Bluebird of HOPE, Whiting, (11/30/2008 9:36:13 AM)
On the fence, (11/30/2008 12:25:31 AM)
I can't watch a KU game without thinking of "Cannon" and "Jake and the Fat Man." Mangino is the best coach in the Big 12 North.
---
I think Mangino isn't the BEST but the smartest. I think the Heisman should go to Texas Tech's Graham Harrell this year. Just my two cents
I love watching Tebow too.
 

 
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