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Craving chaos: OU's BCS title hopes not dead, but help required

OU's Sam Bradford (left), OSU's Zac Robinson (center), and TU's David Johnson (right). DARYL WILSON/Tulsa World, MIKE SIMONS/Tulsa World, STEPHEN PINGRY/Tulsa World

 
By JOHN E. HOOVER World Sports Writer
Published: 10/29/2008  2:04 AM
Last Modified: 10/29/2008  3:57 PM



Audio: Listen to Bob Stoops’ weekly press conference.




Palm reading



Jerry Palm is an expert on the BCS standings and publishes a BCS simulation at tulsaworld.com/collegebcs.

On Tuesday, he spoke to John E. Hoover about Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Tulsa’s BCS possibilities.

OU's BCS title hopes not dead, but help required



NORMAN — Here is an idea for how to best use Oklahoma's new $4.5 million scoreboard on Saturday:

When OU and Nebraska kick off at 7 p.m. at Owen Field, why not also show a simulcast of No. 1-ranked Texas' game at No. 6 Texas Tech, which also starts at 7?

Talk about scoreboard-watching.

"It's strange to some degree," Sooners head coach Bob Stoops said Tuesday.

The 2008 season is two-thirds complete, and Oklahoma's best chance at reaching the Bowl Championship Series title game is, simply put, for the Longhorns to lose on Saturday. The Sooners then would need to win out — including a Nov. 22 home game against Texas Tech and a Nov. 29 game at Oklahoma State — to force a three-way tie with Texas and Tech.

If Texas beats Tech, the Sooners must win the rest of their games, then hope UT loses twice to either Baylor, Kansas or Texas A&M.

If the Sooners defeat a pair of teams in the last two weeks of the season that presently are ranked in the top 10, it would no doubt impress poll voters. In the event of a three-way tie, the Big 12 South team ranked highest in the BCS standings is declared division champion. In this scenario, Texas Tech cannot lose more than once, or it breaks the three-way tie and reverts OU and Texas into a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Longhorns beat the Sooners 45-35 on Oct. 11.

If Texas continues to win, OU — currently No. 4 in this week's BCS standings — would have to hope No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Penn State fall from the undefeated ranks. That would require major upsets.

"Unless Oklahoma gets to 12-1, they're pretty much out of it," said Jerry Palm, who publishes a BCS predictor on CollegeBCS.com. "I don't think 11-1 is going to do it, unless we just have a lot of chaos like we did last year.

"A 12-1 Oklahoma's a different story. They're a very strong contender. Maybe the top contender. But an 11-1 Oklahoma doesn't have a very good chance."

The BCS standings are calculated using two human polls (the 61-member panel on the USA Today coaches poll and the 114-member panel on the Harris Interactive poll) and an average of six computer rankings (the Sagarin Index, the Billingsley Report, the Colley Matrix, the Massey Ratings, the Anderson & Hester ratings and the Wolfe ratings).

If both Penn State and Alabama lose and OU and Texas win the rest of their games, it is possible the Sooners and Longhorns would hook up in the title game.

"If it worked out mathematically that a one-loss Big 12 team that didn't even play for the Big 12 championship went on to play in the BCS championship, there certainly would be an outcry nationally," said Harris Poll voter Blair Kerkhoff. "But it would not be unfair if that happened."

Kerkhoff, who also covers the Big 12 as a columnist for the Kansas City Star, points out that nowhere in the BCS computations is there a qualifier for how a team finishes in its conference. Voters have in the past altered their votes to prevent it — think LSU leapfrogging Georgia last season — but it certainly is not unprecedented. Nebraska lost the Big 12 North to Colorado in 2001, then played Miami for the national title. OU lost to Kansas State in the '03 Big 12 title game, then played LSU in the national championship game.

This year, in particular, a Big 12 South runner-up could make a case for being the second-best team in the nation.

"I do think it's a possibility," said Hugo resident Richard Billingsley, who publishes one of the six computer rankings used in the BCS formula. "There are a couple of things that would have to happen."

Billingsley's mathematical system is an outcome predictor. He said his numbers forecast that Texas will beat Texas Tech on Saturday in Lubbock.

"I think the Sooners' best shot at No. 2 in my system is for Alabama and Penn State to lose," Billingsley said.

But Billingsley also is a self-described college football fan. His numbers say one thing, but his head tells him another: that the Longhorns' four-game run against No. 1 OU, No. 11 Missouri, No. 8 OSU and No. 5 Tech is an ultimate acid test.

"I don't know how they can physically and emotionally maintain the level of intensity that they've played at for three weeks in a row," Billingsley said. "They've had three big emotional games in a row. Can they do it a fourth time? I question whether or not they can. If they do, I think it'll be one of the greatest runs in college football history."




John E. Hoover 581-8384
john.hoover@tulsaworld.com
By JOHN E. HOOVER World Sports Writer

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COMMENTS 
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17 comments have been made for this team so far. Tell us what you think below!

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Report Comment
5055567475852000, Euless (10/29/2008 6:33:20 AM)
The 'what-if' filler is becoming old; OU is not going to the BCS title game or the CCG, so quit wasting time and effort on this nonsense. OU will have three losses and go to the Holiday Bowl and play Boise St, and the whorns will win it all. S*cks to be us right now...
Report Comment
DCPokeFan, (10/29/2008 8:12:17 AM)
Let's see...I open up the OSU sports page for the online Tulsa World, and find, not only is the lead story about OU's chances of making the BCS title game (which are about as good as OSU's by this scenario), and not only is the link to a Bob Stoops audio clip, but the photograph incorrectly mixes up Zac Robinson and David Johnson. I can see the argument that general sports-bar chat about OU applies to OSU because we're in the same state -- I'm sure, in fact, that the OU section of the TW online opens with OSU stories as the lead all the time! ;p -- but surely even the geekiest webinator can tell the difference between orange and red? And also, where in the story did Mr. Palm talk about Tulsa and OSU, as promised in the subheading? I must have missed that part...
Report Comment
LE, Tulsa (10/29/2008 9:04:47 AM)
The 'what-if' filler is becoming old; OU is not going to the BCS title game or the CCG, so quit wasting time and effort on this nonsense.
____________

I'd bet that's what you thought two years ago but Texas lost its last two game sending OU to the CCG and eventually the Big12 Championship.

Don't count either OSU or OU out.
Report Comment
ClashNVain, Tulsa (10/29/2008 10:09:20 AM)
You could also easily replace OU with OSU in that scenario (with the current standings). Picture this: Tech beats Texas, OSU beats Tech, Tech Beats OU, OSU beats OU. Texas wins out, OSU wins out, after losing to OSU Tech wins out.

What do we have? A three-way tie. And the same tie-breaking criteria would apply in that scenario also. So if OSU lost on 10/25, Texas loses on 10/31, and Tech loses last, it isn't unreasonable for OSU to be ranked higher in the BCS than those other two teams. That would be truly chaotic, although it would be interesting to see a Red River Rivalry national championship game, wouldn't it?
Report Comment
Have that, America (10/29/2008 10:55:45 AM)
Sports writers in this state don't care about OSU or TU. Very few of them even realize there is more than one university in this state. The thought of OSU being in the race for a conference championship or national championship in football is an idea that they refuse to grasp.

This article is so blindingly one way bias that I really hope and pray that the OSU tie breaker scenerio plays out. OU ends up with 3 losses and goes to the Alamo bowl, edged out of the cotton & holiday by Tech & Missouri.

Report Comment
conserv-o-king, (10/29/2008 10:56:34 AM)
I bet if two big XII teams played for the title we would hear an even greater public outcry for a playoff system in college football. All this what-if crap is a joke, no one contests the basketball national champion and March Madness gets bigger every year.
Report Comment
matt w, Tulsa (10/29/2008 11:11:27 AM)
I think that they should get away from the voting for the rankings, go based off of who wins and who loses. Drop the voting for the championship games, go with a playoff system like the pros. do. That's where some of these kids are going so they should get used to it now.
Report Comment
ClashNVain, Tulsa (10/29/2008 11:16:24 AM)
Pat Jones and Al Jerkins (sp?) had a good point yesterday that maybe Penn State going undefeated and not playing in the championship game might be the catalyst required for a playoff.
Report Comment
Dave in Houston, Houston (10/29/2008 12:18:06 PM)
ClashNVain, Tulsa (10/29/2008 11:16:24 AM)
Pat Jones and Al Jerkins (sp?) had a good point yesterday that maybe Penn State going undefeated and not playing in the championship game might be the catalyst required for a playoff.
----------------------------

Congrats "Clash" for making the only worthy statement. The whatif crap for OU is pointless. OU's chances died on the same 4th down play that killed OSU'c chances. OU only goes if Texas loses twice which, like it or not, ain't happening.

If Penn St runs the table and JoePa is left out of what could be a story book ending to a Hall of Fame career, the media and public firestorm over the BCS system will be of epic proportions. Of course the BCS committee folk will just sit back, relax, and wait for USC to mop up the Lions in the Rose Bowl and we'll all be right back to where we are today...stuck with a bowl system that satisfies nothing except the wallets of Bowl and TV network honks.
Report Comment
Have that, America (10/29/2008 1:31:29 PM)
It will take a year of 4 undefeated teams that come out of the 4 major conferences to cause a stink enough to create a playoff system.

Think about if USC hadn't lost how much more drama there would be around all this right now...especially since the media loves USC so much even though they play in the softest conference imaginable...

the system has continued on even after Auburn was snubbed a few years ago after going undefeated in the SEC...it will take all 4 conferences producing a big name school thats an undefeated champion to force the hand of anyone. and even then...it will probably just be an "and 1" situation instead of a real playoff...

personally...I think it should be an 6 team playoff...top two seats get a bye on the first round...keep the bowls, there wouldn't be a need to change much...first two games can be the sugar/fiesta bowl....next two can be the rose/orange...and then the BCS NC game...the bowl people keep their bowls and their money...and the nation gets a true national champion....

the rest of the bowl games remain in tact...no one loses money...

of course...if we did this...all of a sudden the big arguement would be between the schools in the 5,6,7 & 8 spots all bickering for their piece of the pie....
Report Comment
sdacteli, Joliet (10/29/2008 3:30:21 PM)
Enough about all of this OU bull....this is the time to write about the Cowboys. The Sooners will not win in Bedlam this year. You guys have nothing better to do than to talk about the Sooners (bull is not inappropriate language). If you don't print this than you must be one of these clowns supporting OU
Report Comment
matt w, Tulsa (10/29/2008 4:15:17 PM)
sdacteli, we will just have to wait and see and then watch those cowgirls whine and cry when it's over.
Report Comment
AG1, (10/29/2008 6:31:35 PM)
OK Joker. When are you going to write the story about what has to happen for OSU to make it to the title game?

Who has a better shot? Who will be favored to win in Stillwater.

I'm sick and tired of all this OU bias.
Report Comment
Rhymeister, Tulsa (10/30/2008 6:42:20 AM)
Sorry but OU isn't going to the title game, their defense is not adequate to run the table from here on out.
Report Comment
Have that, America (10/30/2008 10:49:43 AM)
my predictions for bowl games out of the Big XII:

NC game : TX
BCS at large bid: OSU
Cotton: TTech
Holliday: Missouri
Alamo: OU
Insight: KU
Independance: CU
Texas Bowl: NEB

I can see OSU & Tech changing places depending upon the outcome of that game, which should be a slugfest out in lubbock, but I honestly think that both OSU & Tech will take it to the sooners. OU lacks playmakers on D & special teams, they have a soft secondary and can be beat with the deep ball. Additionally, they have 0 running game and cant control the tempo/flow of the game.

OU & Missouri may swap spots as well...Missouri wont lose another game untill they face another south team(more than likely Texas) in the Big XII championship game where they will once again be trounced. Leaving them with 3 losses, same as what OU will have. Both will more than likely be ranked in the 15-19 area after that and will basically be a toss up...
Report Comment
matt w, Tulsa (10/30/2008 2:08:38 PM)
Rhymeister, I don't really see OSU going to the title game either. There is too much that would have to happen for either one of them to make it, but we will just have to wait and see.
Report Comment
Rhymeister, Tulsa (10/31/2008 6:38:26 AM)
matt w,

I agree, a lot is going to have to happen for Ok State to get there, like beating T-Tech in Lubbock (tough) and beating OU in Stillwater (which I think they will if both teams stay at the same level). Not sure which team you are a fan of but personally I'm loving in, there is some very exciting football being played in the Big 12 this season.
 

 
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