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Sooners' BCS lead over UT isn't safe
Texas could pass OU even if the Sooners win the Big 12 championship.
  
By JOHN E. HOOVER World Sports Writer
Published: 12/4/2008  2:30 AM
Last Modified: 12/4/2008  3:20 AM

 If No. 2 Oklahoma beats No. 20 Missouri on Saturday in the Big 12 Conference championship game, how safe is the Sooners' lead over No. 3 Texas?

Not as safe as you might think.

It's entirely possible, in a purely mathematical sense, that OU could beat the Tigers and win the Big 12 title but would still get passed by the Longhorns. As unlikely as it sounds, it would only take a small change from last week's Bowl Championship Series standings to turn the trick.

It works like this:

If only six voters in the Harris Interactive poll and just three voters in the USA Today coaches poll move Texas up one spot and OU down one spot, and if OU's computer rank falls just one spot in two of the six computers, and Texas' computer rank climbs just one spot in one computer ranking, they will have the exact same BCS average next week, .9243.

Now that's close. But the devil may be in the details. The BCS averages of OU (.9351) and Texas (.9223) may be close now, said BCS expert Jerry Palm, but that's because "Oklahoma's not the conference champion yet. When Oklahoma's the conference champion, it's no longer close."

Palm and others involved in the process think the voting will take care of itself, that too many of the 175 human voters will respond with common sense and award a Big 12-conquering Oklahoma a spot in the BCS title game, despite their feelings about Texas.

But consider that last week, Texas made up a 41-point difference in the coaches poll and 27 points in the Harris poll. And that was after the Sooners won a road game at rival Oklahoma State.

Using numbers from the Associated Press Top 25 (not a BCS component), OU became the only Top 10 team this season to beat a ranked opponent on the road and fall in the poll.

Texas got a significant sympathy vote last week because many voters reconsidered their ballot based on Texas' 45-35 victory over Oklahoma on Oct. 11 in Dallas.

OU's win at OSU pushed the Sooners to No. 1 in the computer rankings, and OU overtook the Longhorns for the No. 2 spot in the BCS despite a marked change in the human element.

Palm doesn't think that kind of overcorrection will happen again, but it doesn't need to. Of the 175 humans who cast a vote, a tiny change on less than a dozen ballots this week could swing Texas back in front.

Consider the possibility that a small faction of voters — less than five — really think Texas got the shaft and want to try to fix what they perceive is a BCS mess with a big swing on their ballot.

Consider that another small portion — maybe three — who didn't feel the need to change their vote last week because they figured everyone else would, so now they vote their conscience and make a small switch.

And consider that Texas coach Mack Brown could draw even more sympathy from just one or two coaches who make a small change to their ballot.

Such a switch could really pick up steam if the Sooners win a close game Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium.

An OU win of any margin would likely leave the Sooners No. 1 in the computer rankings, but even that would need just a miniscule change. That's possible because, although OU is playing a 9-3 Missouri team, the Tigers' strength-of-schedule rating is 44th nationally and would drop after losing to OU.

Most computer rankings assess the difficulty not only of a given team's schedule, but the schedules of all a given team's opponents. In that vein, wins this week by Tulsa, Florida Atlantic, Buffalo, West Virginia or Army can help Texas, and a loss by Virginia Tech can hurt OU. The Sooners also have two opponents involved in games this week — Washington (the winless Huskies can only help OU's rating) and Cincinnati (at Hawaii).

Despite the math, Palm remains skeptical.

"The only way Texas finishes ahead of Oklahoma," Palm said, "is if Missouri wins."



John E. Hoover 581-8384
john.hoover@tulsaworld.com

Big 12 ticket information

Big 12 championship game tickets are available at tulsaworld. com/ticketmaster or by calling 587- 2322. Prices range from $55-$85.

How the BCS works

The Bowl Championship Series uses a formula that derives percentages from three elements: the USA Today coaches poll, the Harris Interactive poll, and an average of six computer rankings. A breakdown of how the BCS arrives at its rankings, and a look at Oklahoma and Texas' current percentages:

USA Today coaches poll
There are 61 voters. A team is awarded 25 points for a first-place vote, 24 for second, etc., through one point for a 25th-place vote. Each team's point total is divided by a maximum of 1,525 possible points to determine the percentage of total points a team receives.

OU: 1,397 of 1,525 = .9161

Texas: 1,396 of 1,525 = .9154

Harris Interactive poll
There are 114 voters. A team is awarded 25 points for a first-place vote, 24 for second, etc., through one point for a 25th-place vote. Each team's point total is divided by a maximum of 2,850 possible points to determine the percentage of total points a team receives.

OU: 2,569 of 2,850 = .9094

Texas: 2,575 of 28505 = .9115

Computer average
There are six computers. A team's highest and lowest computer ranks are thrown out to determine a four-number mean. A team is awarded 25 points for a first-place ranking, 24 for second, etc., through one point for a 25th-place ranking. Each team's point total is divided by a maximum of 100 possible points to determine the percentage of total points a team receives.

OU: two 1st, two 2nd (two 25s + two 24s) divided by 100 equals .980

Texas: two 2nd, two 3rd (two 24s + two 23s) divided by 100 equals .940

BCS average
A team's average in the coaches poll, its average in the Harris poll and its average in the computer poll are added up and divided by three.

OU: .9161 + .9094 + .980 = 2.8055 divided by 3 = .9351

Texas: .9154 + .9115 + .940 = 2.7669 divided by 3 = .9223

Note: BCS averages are carried out the fourth decimal.

By JOHN E. HOOVER World Sports Writer

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vj, Tulsa (12/4/2008 2:13:32 PM)
Nice breakdown, John.

It would almost be hilarious if that happened. OU fans would be the ones whining next week, while Texas fans would be saying "deal with it"

I think OU gives the Big XII the best chance to win. They have recovered from that loss to Texas in a big way. Texas on the other hand deserves it more, I believe.

Just my opinion. I'm an OSU fan, by the way.
Report Comment
Soonerkat, Broken Arrow (12/4/2008 2:55:26 PM)
I'm trying to figure out how Mack Brown could gather more sympathy?? We've seen thousands of signs in the stand, a plane overhead flashing the score, a telephone call during half time....what's left??? He is teetering on the verge of sounding pathetic and desperate. Well maybe not teetering...think he's already there. The Sooners just have to take care of Mizzou and hope that the voters/computers can see that they are peaking at the right time. Let's hope it continues into January so we can avoid another BCS embarrassment. Boomer Sooner!
Report Comment
Arbythree, (12/4/2008 3:36:28 PM)
Have to agree with Shark on this one. Didn't TW report a few weeks ago that Oklahoma HAD TO GO 12-1 to get to the BCS Championship?

That being the case, how in the world can Texas get there UNLESS OU loses to Mizzou?

Nuff said!!
Report Comment
ktulsafan, Houston (12/5/2008 9:36:12 AM)
If Mack Brown's whining works on this vote, GM and Ford should take him to Washington with them to beg the government for their bailout money.
 

 
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