Updated outlooks from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman have shifted the main threat of weekend severe weather south, but long-range forecasts now show a greater chance of storms, and heavy rain, next week.

In outlooks issued early Thursday morning, the weather service moved both enhanced risk areas for Friday and Saturday south of the Red River valley into Texas. Saturday's strongest storms will be limited to central and northeast Texas where instability is greatest. Saturday's forecast will not be updated until early Friday morning and then again that afternoon. 

Forecasts after Saturday remain preliminary and will be significantly refined and revised in the coming days. After a lull Sunday, however, Monday's outlook shows a localized area of severe weather potential stretching north and east from Abilene, Texas, to south Kansas, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa.

Those Monday storms would be of particular concern if the forecast holds out, because those would produce heavy rain and be slow moving, adding more water to an already saturated lake and river system in Oklahoma. Again, Monday's forecast remains subject to further changes as models become clearer.

Friday's risk area remains west of Oklahoma City and in the panhandle, but a slight risk Saturday extends from Texas through eastern Oklahoma and to Iowa. Forecasters have a risk area in extreme eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas for Tuesday.

"Total rain amounts of 4-6 inches are possible between Saturday and the middle part of next week," forecasters said.

"We are expecting a period of active severe weather with heavy rain and flooding potential beginning Saturday through Tuesday. Spotter network activation will likely be needed at various times during this period."

The Tulsa area forecast:

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Friday night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 78. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1 a.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight.

Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.


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Stetson Payne 918-732-8135

stetson.payne@tulsaworld.com

Twitter: @stetson__payne

Staff Writer

Stetson covers breaking news, general assignment and other stories. He previously worked at the Enterprise-Journal in Mississippi. He is from Broken Arrow and graduated with a journalism degree from Oklahoma State University. Phone: 918-581-8466

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